Dutch manufacturers less positive

According to Statistics Netherlands (CBS), producer confidence among Dutch manufacturers has deteriorated in September 2019. Confidence stands at 3.3, down from 3.9 in August. Manufacturers are more negative about their stocks.

The long-term average over the past two decades is 1.0. Producer confidence reached an all-time high (10.9) in February 2018 and an all-time low (-23.5) in February 2009. Optimism has prevailed among Dutch manufacturers since October 2014.

Producer confidence manufacturing industry (seasonally adjusted) (average of the component questions)
jaarmaandbalance
2015October2.4
November4
December3
2016January3.2
February3.1
March3.9
April4.7
May4.4
June5.4
July5.1
August1.2
September3.4
October4.3
November3.4
December4.7
2017January6
February7
March7.8
April8.3
May6.1
June7.2
July6.6
August5.4
September8.5
October8.2
November9.1
December8.9
2018January10.3
February10.9
March9.5
April8.2
May9.8
June7.7
July6.3
August5.9
September5.7
October5.9
November7.2
December7.5
2019January5.8
February6.3
March6.1
April6.7
May4.7
Juni3.3
Juli 3.9
August3.9
September3.3

More positive about orders, more negative about stocks

In September, Dutch manufacturers are more positive about their order positions, but also more negative about their stocks. Their opinion on future output has remained unchanged.

Two component indicators of producer confidence are positive. Manufacturers who anticipate output growth over the next three months outnumber those expecting output decline. More manufacturers consider their order position to be strong rather than weak, given the time of year.

However, manufacturers’ opinions on their stock were negative. There are more manufacturers who define their current stocks of finished products as too large rather than too small.

Producers in the wood and building materials industry most positive

In September, producers in the wood and building materials industry have the most optimistic outlook. Pessimism prevails in the transport equipment industry and confidence stands at the lowest level since 2012.

Producer confidence by sector (seasonally adjusted) (average of the component questions)
 September 2019August 2019
Timber and building materials15.310.3
Textiles, clothes, leather9.211.7
Electrotechnical products and machinery7.310
Paper and printing6.30.5
Food, beverages, tobacco3.23.3
Petroleum2.14.5
Metal0.45.4
Transport equipment-11.4-5.5

Manufacturing output slightly down in July

The average daily output generated by the Dutch manufacturing industry was 0.2 percent down in July 2019 compared to the same month last year. The decline is smaller than in the four previous months.

Confidence among German manufacturers declining further

Germany is an important foreign market for the Dutch manufacturing industry. According to the IFO index, in manufacturing the business climate index has declined again in September. Companies were once again less satisfied with their ongoing business. In July, the average daily output generated by the German manufacturing industry was almost 5 percent lower than in the same month last year.

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