GDP growth rate remains 0.5 percent in Q1 2019

© Hollandse Hoogte / Kees van de Veen
According to the second estimate conducted by Statistics Netherlands (CBS), gross domestic product (GDP) showed 0.5 percent growth in Q1 2019 relative to Q4 2018. The second GDP estimate is published 90 days after the end of each quarter.

The growth rate is the same as in the first estimate, which was published on 14 May. Growth in Q1 2019 was mainly due to increased investments in fixed assets. The trade balance made a negative contribution to the growth of GDP.

GDP (volume), seasonally adjusted (2010=100)
   index
2012Quarter 1100.8
Quarter 2100.9
Quarter 3100.5
Quarter 499.8
2013Quarter 1100.1
Quarter 299.9
Quarter 3100.5
Quarter 4101.1
2014Quarter 1101
Quarter 2101.6
Quarter 3101.9
Quarter 4102.8
2015Quarter 1103.4
Quarter 2103.7
Quarter 3104.1
Quarter 4104.1
2016Quarter 1105.1
Quarter 2105.3
Quarter 3106.5
Quarter 4107.4
2017Quarter 1108
Quarter 2108.9
Quarter 3109.7
Quarter 4110.5
2018Quarter 1111.2
Quarter 2111.9
Quarter 3112.2
Quarter 4112.8
2019Quarter 1113.3

Second estimate

The second estimate is conducted 90 days after the end of the quarter. The first estimate, which is calculated 45 days after the end of the quarter, is based on the most recent data available at that moment. After the first estimate, more new information about the state of the Dutch economy keeps pouring in, e.g. data about the sectors construction business services, hotels and restaurants, government care and the financial sector. These data are subsequently incorporated into new calculations.

In absolute terms, the adjustment of the second estimate relative to the first estimate has averaged nearly 0.1 percentage point over the past half decade, with the two extremes ranging between - 0.1 and + 0.3 percentage points.

Quarter-on-quarter growth adjustment

With each new estimate, CBS also recalculates the seasonally adjusted series of previously published quarters. As a result, the quarter-on-quarter growth in Q3 2018 has been adjusted from 0.1 to 0.2 percent. Quarter-on-quarter growth in the other quarters has not been adjusted.

Growth relative to Q1 2018

Year-on-year, the GDP growth rate in Q1 was 1.7 percent. In the first estimate, the growth rate was also 1.7 percent.

GDP (volume) (year-on-year % change)
   mutatie
2012Quarter 1-1.1
Quarter 2-0.6
Quarter 3-1.2
Quarter 4-1.2
2013Quarter 1-1.7
Quarter 2-0.5
Quarter 30.3
Quarter 41.4
2014Quarter 11.3
Quarter 21.4
Quarter 31.1
Quarter 41.8
2015Quarter 11.9
Quarter 22.1
Quarter 32.5
Quarter 41.4
2016Quarter 12.1
Quarter 22.3
Quarter 32.1
Quarter 42.2
2017Quarter 13.2
Quarter 23.1
Quarter 32.8
Quarter 42.6
2018Quarter 12.8
Quarter 23
Quarter 32.5
Quarter 42.2
2019Quarter 11.7

Annual figures

Simultaneously with the publication of the second estimate over Q1 2019, revised annual figures over 2017 (final) and 2018 (provisional) are published. On the basis of the most recent data, the economic growth rate for 2018 (provisionally) was adjusted from 2.7 to 2.6 percent. The growth rate for 2017 has not been adjusted and remains at 2.9 percent.

56 thousand new jobs

The second estimate shows that the number of employee and self-employed jobs increased by 56 thousand in Q1 2019 compared to Q4 2018. The first estimate suggested an increase of 53 thousand jobs.

In Q1 2019, the second estimate suggested a growth of 226 thousand employee and self-employed jobs compared to the same quarter in 2018, versus 230 thousand according to the first estimate.
Job figures are adjusted when additional information becomes available.

Total jobs (seasonally adjusted) (quarter-on-quarter change (1,000))
   change
2012Quarter 1-4
Quarter 2-16
Quarter 3-31
Quarter 4-39
2013Quarter 1-53
Quarter 2-22
Quarter 3-10
Quarter 4-11
2014Quarter 1-12
Quarter 216
Quarter 320
Quarter 430
2015Quarter 139
Quarter 233
Quarter 334
Quarter 440
2016Quarter 115
Quarter 254
Quarter 342
Quarter 447
2017Quarter 154
Quarter 256
Quarter 372
Quarter 474
2018Quarter 169
Quarter 252
Quarter 358
Quarter 455
2019Quarter 156

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