Economic growth of 0.4 percent in Q4 2023

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© Hollandse Hoogte / Ramon van Flymen
According to the second estimate conducted by Statistics Netherlands (CBS), gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 0.4 percent in Q4 2023 relative to Q3 2023. According to the first estimate, published on 14 February, growth was 0.3 percent. The second GDP estimate is always published around 85 days after the end of each quarter.

Growth was slightly higher than in the first estimate. Public consumption in particular was adjusted upwards, partly due to higher expenditure by municipalities. However, the trade balance for services was adjusted downwards. The overall picture has not changed: growth in Q4 can mainly be attributed to household consumption.

GDP (volume), seasonally adjusted
YearQuarterIndex (2015=100)
2018Quarter 1106.9
2018Quarter 2107.6
2018Quarter 3107.8
2018Quarter 4108.3
2019Quarter 1109.2
2019Quarter 2109.5
2019Quarter 3109.7
2019Quarter 4110.4
2020Quarter 1108.9
2020Quarter 299.8
2020Quarter 3106.2
2020Quarter 4106.8
2021Quarter 1108.1
2021Quarter 2111.4
2021Quarter 3113.7
2021Quarter 4114.5
2022Quarter 1115.1
2022Quarter 2117.1
2022Quarter 3117.3
2022Quarter 4118
2023Quarter 1117.4
2023Quarter 2117
2023Quarter 3116.7
2023Quarter 4117.1

Second estimate

The second estimate is conducted 85 days after the end of the quarter. The first estimate is calculated 45 days after the end of the quarter, and is based on the most recent data available at that point. Following the first estimate, new information about the state of the Dutch economy continues to pour in, including data on the construction sector, business services, hotels and restaurants, the public sector, the care sector and the financial sector. These data are added and new calculations are carried out.

On average, over the five-year period of 2018-2023, the difference between the final estimate and the first estimate was 0.1 percentage points in absolute terms, but ranged between -0.3 and 0.7 percentage points, both of which occurred in 2021.

Quarter-on-quarter growth adjustment

With each new estimate, CBS also recalculates the seasonally adjusted series of previously published quarters. When conducting the second estimate for Q4, CBS also adjusts the first three quarters on the basis of the most recent data. The quarter-on-quarter GDP growth rate for Q3 2023 has been revised for Q3: from -0.3 to -0.2 percent. The first two quarters of 2023 have not been revised.

Growth relative to Q4 2022

Year on year, GDP decreased by 0.4 percent in Q4. In the first estimate, that decrease was 0.5 percent. In the year-on-year growth figures, public consumption and investments have been adjusted upwards, while the trade balance has been adjusted downwards.

Furthermore, growth in Q1 has been adjusted from 1.9 to 1.8 percent and the contraction in Q2 has been adjusted from 0.2 to 0.1 percent.

GDP (volume)
YearQuarterIndex (year-on-year % change)
2018Quarter 12.6
2018Quarter 22.7
2018Quarter 32.2
2018Quarter 41.9
2019Quarter 11.8
2019Quarter 21.9
2019Quarter 32.1
2019Quarter 42.0
2020Quarter 1-0.3
2020Quarter 2-8.8
2020Quarter 3-3.3
2020Quarter 4-2.9
2021Quarter 1-1.1
2021Quarter 211.8
2021Quarter 36.9
2021Quarter 47.4
2022Quarter 16.4
2022Quarter 25.2
2022Quarter 33.0
2022Quarter 42.9
2023Quarter 11.8
2023Quarter 2-0.1
2023Quarter 3-0.8
2023Quarter 4-0.4

Dutch economy grew by 0.1 percent in 2023

Annual GDP growth for 2023 was 0.1 percent. In the first estimate, the growth rate was also calculated to be 0.1 percent. Growth over 2023 was mainly due to higher public consumption.

56 thousand new jobs

The second estimate shows that the number of people in employment or self-employment increased by 56 thousand in Q4 2023 compared to Q3 2023. According to the first estimate the increase was 45 thousand jobs.

Furthermore, the second estimate for Q4 2023 suggested a year-on-year increase in the number of people in employment or self-employment was 114 thousand, versus 96 thousand according to the first estimate.

Job figures are adjusted when additional information becomes available. The figures for the first three quarters of 2023 have also been adjusted on the basis of the most recent data. Overall, the number of number of people in employment and self-employment increased by 179 thousand on average in 2023.

Total jobs (seasonally adjusted)
   change (quarter-on-quarter change (1,000))
2018Quarter 176
2018Quarter 264
2018Quarter 367
2018Quarter 458
2019Quarter 162
2019Quarter 238
2019Quarter 336
2019Quarter 451
2020Quarter 15
2020Quarter 2-302
2020Quarter 3174
2020Quarter 42
2021Quarter 14
2021Quarter 2143
2021Quarter 3171
2021Quarter 468
2022Quarter 1124
2022Quarter 2110
2022Quarter 375
2022Quarter 466
2023Quarter 134
2023Quarter 27
2023Quarter 333
2023Quarter 456