Economic picture slightly less favourable

© Nikki van Toorn (CBS)
According to the CBS Business Cycle Tracer, the economic situation in June is slightly less favourable than in the previous month. Statistics Netherlands (CBS) reports that eleven of the thirteen indicators in the Tracer as published mid-June are performing above the level of their long-term trend.

The CBS Business Cycle Tracer is a tool used to monitor the situation and the developments in the Dutch economy. It uses thirteen key macro-economic indicators. Together, these provide a coherent macro-economic picture which is based on CBS figures published over the past month or quarter. It does not represent the situation at the level of individual households, businesses or regions.

Business Cycle Tracer indicator (unweighted average of the indicators in the CBS Business Cycle Tracer) (distance to the long-term trend (=0))
YearMonthcycle
2012January-0.04
February-0.09
March-0.13
April-0.16
May-0.24
June-0.3
July-0.36
August-0.47
September-0.55
October-0.62
November-0.74
December-0.83
2013January-0.91
February-1.03
March-1.12
April-1.18
May-1.25
June-1.28
July-1.29
August-1.29
September-1.23
October-1.17
November-1.09
December-1.02
2014January-0.95
February-0.9
March-0.87
April-0.85
May-0.83
June-0.82
July-0.8
August-0.79
September-0.78
October-0.77
November-0.75
December-0.72
2015January-0.68
February-0.63
March-0.57
April-0.51
May-0.44
June-0.39
July-0.34
August-0.3
September-0.27
October-0.27
November-0.25
December-0.24
2016January-0.25
February-0.23
March-0.22
April-0.21
May-0.16
June-0.12
July-0.09
August-0.03
September0.01
October0.05
November0.11
December0.16
2017January0.21
February0.28
March0.33
April0.36
May0.42
June0.44
July0.47
August0.53
September0.57
October0.62
November0.68
December0.73
2018January0.76
February0.81
March0.85
April0.86
May0.88
June0.89
July0.87
August0.88
September0.87
October0.84
November0.82
December0.78
2019January0.74
February0.7
March0.66
April0.62
May0.61
June0.59

Consumer confidence up, producer confidence down

Consumer confidence improved in June; confidence among Dutch manufacturers deteriorated in May. Both consumer and producer confidence are above the long-term average.

Consumer and producer confidence (seasonally adjusted) (average of the component questions)
YearMonthConsumer confidenceProducer confidence
2014January-60.7
February-2-0.1
March11.1
April40.3
May60.7
June60.7
July61.2
August20
September-2-0.2
October12
November-22.4
December-43.4
2015January-22.8
February-12
March71.4
April103.3
May114.1
June144.6
July133.7
August133.5
September113.8
October122.4
November144
December133
2016January113.2
February73.1
March23.9
April64.7
May74.4
June115.4
July95.1
August91.2
September123.4
October174.3
November213.4
December214.7
2017January216
February227
March247.8
April268.3
May236.1
June237.2
July256.6
August265.4
September238.5
October238.2
November229.1
December258.9
2018January2410.3
February2310.9
March249.5
April258.2
May239.8
June237.7
July236.3
August215.9
September195.7
October155.9
November137.2
December97.5
2019January15.8
February-26.3
March-46.1
April-36.7
May-34.7
June0

Investments, household consumption and exports growing

The volume of investments in tangible fixed assets was 6.7 percent up in April 2019 relative to the same month last year. The year-on-year growth was more substantial than in the preceding month. In April, investments were up mainly in dwellings, office buildings, passenger cars and machinery.

Dutch consumers spent 1.8 percent more in April 2019 than in April 2018. Consumers spent mainly more on home furnishings and electrical appliances. However, spending on passenger cars was down.

The total volume of goods exports grew by 1.9 percent in April year-on-year. Growth was higher than in the previous five months. In April 2019, exports of chemical products and machinery increased in particular. On the other hand, exports of electro-technical equipment was down.

Manufacturing output over 1 percent down in April

The average daily output generated by the Dutch manufacturing industry was 1.2 percent down in April 2019 compared to the same month last year. In the previous month, output was more or less the same year-on-year. In April, output in the transport equipment industry showed the strongest year-on-year growth.

Fewer bankruptcies in May

The number of corporate bankruptcies has decreased. There were 19 fewer bankruptcies in May 2019 than in the previous month. The trend has been relatively stable in recent years.

Number of jobs continues to grow

In Q1 2019, the number of full-time and part-time jobs held by employees and self-employed rose by 56 thousand to 10.664 million jobs relative to the previous quarter. Over a period of twelve months, the number of jobs grew by 226 thousand.

The total number of hours worked by employees and self-employed reached over 3.4 billion in Q1 2019. When adjusted for seasonal effects, this is almost 1 percent more than in the previous quarter.

In Q1 2019, the number of job vacancies again rose to a new record: 277 thousand, up by 13 thousand compared to the previous quarter. The number of vacancies has been above pre-crisis levels since Q2 2018. New and filled vacancies (seasonally adjusted) also reached record highs.

Tension in the labour market has risen to a new high. In Q1 2019, there were on average 88 job vacancies per 100 unemployed. In Q4 2018, there were 80 vacancies per 100 unemployed.

After February, unemployment declined by an average of 3 thousand per month to 302 thousand in May 2019. This is equivalent to 3.3 percent of the labour force.

GDP (volume), seasonally adjusted (2010=100)
   index
2012Quarter 1100.8
Quarter 2100.9
Quarter 3100.5
Quarter 499.8
2013Quarter 1100.1
Quarter 299.9
Quarter 3100.5
Quarter 4101.1
2014Quarter 1101
Quarter 2101.6
Quarter 3101.9
Quarter 4102.8
2015Quarter 1103.4
Quarter 2103.7
Quarter 3104.1
Quarter 4104.1
2016Quarter 1105.1
Quarter 2105.3
Quarter 3106.5
Quarter 4107.4
2017Quarter 1108
Quarter 2108.9
Quarter 3109.7
Quarter 4110.5
2018Quarter 1111.2
Quarter 2111.9
Quarter 3112.2
Quarter 4112.8
2019Quarter 1113.3

GDP growth 0.5 percent in Q1 2019

Gross domestic product (GDP) rose by 0.5 percent in Q1 2019 relative to the previous quarter, according to the second estimate of GDP conducted by CBS. Growth was mainly due to investments in fixed assets. GDP grew by 1.7 percent relative to Q1 2018.

On Wednesday 14 August 2019, CBS will publish the first estimate of GDP and employment over Q2 2019.

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