Dutch manufacturers again less positive

© Hollandse Hoogte
According to Statistics Netherlands (CBS), producer confidence among Dutch manufacturers has deteriorated further in June 2019. Confidence stands at 3.3, down from 4.7 in May. This is the lowest level in almost three years. Manufacturers are mainly more negative about future output.

The long-term average over the past two decades is 1.0. Producer confidence reached an all-time high (10.9) in February 2018 and an all-time low (-23.5) in February 2009. Optimism has prevailed among Dutch manufacturers since October 2014.

Producer confidence manufacturing industry (seasonally adjusted) (average of the component questions)
jaarmaandbalance
2015July3.7
August3.5
September3.8
October2.4
November4
December3
2016January3.2
February3.1
March3.9
April4.7
May4.4
June5.4
July5.1
August1.2
September3.4
October4.3
November3.4
December4.7
2017January6
February7
March7.8
April8.3
May6.1
June7.2
July6.6
August5.4
September8.5
October8.2
November9.1
December8.9
2018January10.3
February10.9
March9.5
April8.2
May9.8
June7.7
July6.3
August5.9
September5.7
October5.9
November7.2
December7.5
2019January5.8
February6.3
March6.1
April6.7
May4.7
Juni3.3

Less positive about future output, orders and stocks

In June, Dutch manufacturers are more negative about their future output. They are also less positive about their stocks of finished products and their order positions than in the previous month.

Two component indicators of producer confidence are positive. More manufacturers consider their order position to be strong rather than weak, given the time of year. There are also more manufacturers who define their current stocks of finished products as too small rather than too large.

The component indicator future output is negative. Manufacturers who anticipate output decline over the next three months outnumber those expecting output growth.

Producers of textiles, clothes and leather the most positive

In June, producers in the textiles, clothing and leather industry have the most optimistic outlook. However, confidence has deteriorated in most sectors. Pessimism prevails in the transport equipment and metal industry.

Producer confidence by sector (seasonally adjusted) (average of the component questions)
 June 2019May 2019
Textiles, clothes, leather14.98.6
Timber and building materials9.112
Paper and printing8.63.1
Food, beverages, tobacco4.76.8
Electrotechnical products and machinery4.76.7
Petroleum2.12.3
Metal-1.79.2
Transport equipment-3.6-6.3

Manufacturing output over 1 percent down in April

In April 2019, the average daily output generated by the Dutch manufacturing industry was 1.2 percent down on the same month last year. In the previous month, output was more or less the same year-on-year. In April, the strongest output growth was recorded in the transport equipment industry.

German manufacturers again less positive

Germany is an important foreign market for the Dutch manufacturing industry. According to the IFO index, in manufacturing the business climate index fell for the tenth consecutive month. In April, the average daily output generated by the German manufacturing industry was over 3 percent lower than in the same month last year.

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