GDP growth rate remains 0.5 percent in Q4 2018

© Hollandse Hoogte
According to the second estimate conducted by Statistics Netherlands (CBS), gross domestic product (GDP) showed 0.5 percent growth in Q4 2018 relative to Q3 2018. The second GDP estimate is published 90 days after the end of each quarter.

The growth rate is the same as in the first estimate, which was published on 14 February. Growth is mainly due to an increase in investments and consumption.

Second estimate

The second estimate is conducted 90 days after the end of the quarter. The first estimate, which is calculated 45 days after the end of the quarter, is based on the most recent data available at that moment. After the first estimate, more new information about the state of the Dutch economy keeps pouring in, e.g. data about the sectors construction business services, hotels and restaurants, government care and the financial sector. These data are subsequently incorporated into new calculations.

In absolute terms, adjustments in the second estimate relative to the first have averaged 0.1 percentage point over the past half decade, with the two extremes at - 0.3 and + 0.4 percentage point.

Quarter-on-quarter growth Q1 and Q3 2018 adjusted upwards

With each new estimate, CBS also recalculates the seasonally adjusted series of previously published quarters. When the second estimate for Q4 is carried out, the first three quarters are also adjusted on the basis of the most recent data. As a result, the quarter-on-quarter growth in Q1 2018 and Q3 2018 has been adjusted from 0.5 to 0.6 and from 0.1 to 0.2 percent respectively.

Growth relative to Q4 2017

Year-on-year, the GDP growth rate in Q4 was 2.2 percent. In the first estimate, the growth rate was 2.0 percent. Growth rates for Q1 and Q2 also have been adjusted upwards as well, by 0.1 percentage point. The adjustments are due to an upward adjustment of public consumption. The government spent more on general administration and care than previously estimated.

GDP 2.7 percent up in 2018

Due to the adjustments in Q1, Q2 and Q4 2018, GDP was 2.7 percent up in 2018 versus 2.5 percent according to the first estimate. Growth in 2018 was mainly due to more consumption and higher investments.

62 thousand new jobs

The second estimate shows that the number of employee and self-employed jobs increased by 62 thousand in Q4 2018 compared to Q3 2018. The first estimate suggested an increase of 49 thousand jobs.

In Q4 2018, the second estimate suggested a growth of 239 thousand employee and self-employed jobs compared to the same quarter in 2017, versus 218 thousand according to the first estimate.
Job figures are adjusted when additional information becomes available. Figures for the first three quarters of 2018 have also been adjusted on the basis of the most recent data. In 2018, the number of employee and self-employed jobs increased by 260 thousand on average.

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