Manufacturing output down for the first time in 3 years

© Hollandse Hoogte / Marco van Middelkoop luchtfotografie
The average daily output generated by the Dutch manufacturing industry was 4.2 percent down in December 2018 compared to the same month one year previously. Output has contracted for the first time since October 2015. Output in the electric and electronics industry showed the strongest year-on-year contraction.

Average daily output manufacturing (volume) (year-on-year % change)
 change
2015 January-1.3
2015 February-1.7
2015 March-0.2
2015 April-1.1
2015 May1.8
2015 June3.1
2015 July0.3
2015 August-1.1
2015 September-0.6
2015 October2.5
2015 November1.9
2015 December2.9
2016 January3.5
2016 February0.7
2016 March2.3
2016 April4.4
2016 May2.7
2016 June3.2
2016 July3.3
2016 August2.4
2016 September2.3
2016 October0
2016 November3.4
2016 December6.7
2017 January0.4
2017 February4.9
2017 March3
2017 April0.5
2017 May5
2017 June2.4
2017 July2.7
2017 August3.7
2017 September4.8
2017 October5.1
2017 November5.3
2017 December4.4
2018 January8.6
2018 February3.8
2018 March4.5
2018 April5.3
2018 May3.4
2018 June3.9
2018 July2.2
2018 August5.5
2018 September3.1
2018 October3.6
2018 November2.3
2018 December-4.2

Strongest output contraction in electric and electronics industry

Output generated by the electric and electronics industry declined by almost 14 percent in December relative to the same month in 2017. In addition, production levels in the transport equipment, machinery, pharmaceutical and chemical industries saw a greater decline than the average seen across the entire manufacturing sector.

Average daily output manufacturing (volume) by sector, December 2018 (year-on-year % change)
 change
Rubber and plastic products-0.6
Metal products-1.5
Food products-2.2
Chemical products-4.3
Pharmaceutical products-9
Machinery-9.1
Transport equipment-10
Electrotechnical products-13.7
Manufacturing (total)-4.2

Manufacturing output declining

A more accurate picture of short-term output developments is obtained when figures are adjusted for seasonal effects and the working-day pattern. After adjustments, a decline is seen in manufacturing output between November and December 2018 of 3.9 percent. In December, manufacturing output was at its lowest level after September 2017.

Adjusted for seasonal and working-day effects, manufacturing output is seen to fluctuate significantly.

Seasonally adjusted average daily output manufacturing (volume) (2015=100)
 index
2015 January99
2015 February100.2
2015 March99.7
2015 April99.7
2015 May99.5
2015 June100.6
2015 July99.9
2015 August98.8
2015 September99.3
2015 October101.4
2015 November101.5
2015 December100.4
2016 January101.9
2016 February101.1
2016 March102.1
2016 April103.4
2016 May102.1
2016 June103.3
2016 July102.9
2016 August101.7
2016 September102.3
2016 October102.5
2016 November105
2016 December106.3
2017 January103.1
2017 February105.5
2017 March105.2
2017 April104.6
2017 May106.6
2017 June106.1
2017 July106.1
2017 August105.6
2017 September107.3
2017 October107.7
2017 November109.7
2017 December110.4
2018 January111.1
2018 February109.7
2018 March110
2018 April109.8
2018 May110.2
2018 June110.1
2018 July109.3
2018 August111.2
2018 September111
2018 October111
2018 November111.5
2018 December107.1

Dutch manufacturers less positive

In January 2019, confidence among Dutch manufacturers declined. They were mainly less positive about their future output. However, the confidence indicator remained well above the long-term average.

Germany is an important sales market for the Dutch manufacturing industry. According to the IFO index, confidence fell to its lowest level since September 2016. Manufacturers were mainly more pessimistic about the expected economic activity. In December, the average daily output generated by the German manufacturing industry was 4 percent down year-on-year.

With effect from the reporting month of October 2018, manufacturing output figures are published using 2015 as the base year (previously 2010=100). Adjustments have also been made to the method used. The results published in this news release may therefore differ from the results as published based on 2010 (2010=100).

The figures in this publication are provisional and can be adjusted.

Sources

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