Manufacturing output down for the first time in 3 years

© Hollandse Hoogte / Marco van Middelkoop luchtfotografie
The average daily output generated by the Dutch manufacturing industry was 4.2 percent down in December 2018 compared to the same month one year previously. Output has contracted for the first time since October 2015. Output in the electric and electronics industry showed the strongest year-on-year contraction.

Average daily output manufacturing (volume) (year-on-year % change)
jaarmaandchange
2015January-1.3
February-1.7
March-0.2
April-1.1
May1.8
June3.1
July0.3
August-1.1
September-0.6
October2.5
November1.9
December2.9
2016January3.5
February0.7
March2.3
April4.4
May2.7
June3.2
July3.3
August2.4
September2.3
October0
November3.4
December6.7
2017January0.4
February4.9
March3
April0.5
May5
June2.4
July2.7
August3.7
September4.8
October5.1
November5.3
December4.4
2018January8.6
February3.8
March4.5
April5.3
May3.4
June3.9
July2.2
August5.5
September3.1
October3.6
November2.3
December-4.2

Strongest output contraction in electric and electronics industry

Output generated by the electric and electronics industry declined by almost 14 percent in December relative to the same month in 2017. In addition, production levels in the transport equipment, machinery, pharmaceutical and chemical industries saw a greater decline than the average seen across the entire manufacturing sector.

Average daily output manufacturing (volume) by sector, December 2018 (year-on-year % change)
 change
Rubber and plastic products-0.6
Metal products-1.5
Food products-2.2
Chemical products-4.3
Pharmaceutical products-9
Machinery-9.1
Transport equipment-10
Electrotechnical products-13.7
Manufacturing (total)-4.2

Manufacturing output declining

A more accurate picture of short-term output developments is obtained when figures are adjusted for seasonal effects and the working-day pattern. After adjustments, a decline is seen in manufacturing output between November and December 2018 of 3.9 percent. In December, manufacturing output was at its lowest level after September 2017.

Adjusted for seasonal and working-day effects, manufacturing output is seen to fluctuate significantly.

Seasonally adjusted average daily output manufacturing (volume) (2015=100)
jaarmaandindex
2015January99
February100.2
March99.7
April99.7
May99.5
June100.6
July99.9
August98.8
September99.3
October101.4
November101.5
December100.4
2016January101.9
February101.1
March102.1
April103.4
May102.1
June103.3
July102.9
August101.7
September102.3
October102.5
November105
December106.3
2017January103.1
February105.5
March105.2
April104.6
May106.6
June106.1
July106.1
August105.6
September107.3
October107.7
November109.7
December110.4
2018January111.1
February109.7
March110
April109.8
May110.2
June110.1
July109.3
August111.2
September111
October111
November111.5
December107.1

Dutch manufacturers less positive

In January 2019, confidence among Dutch manufacturers declined. They were mainly less positive about their future output. However, the confidence indicator remained well above the long-term average.

Germany is an important sales market for the Dutch manufacturing industry. According to the IFO index, confidence fell to its lowest level since September 2016. Manufacturers were mainly more pessimistic about the expected economic activity. In December, the average daily output generated by the German manufacturing industry was 4 percent down year-on-year.

With effect from the reporting month of October 2018, manufacturing output figures are published using 2015 as the base year (previously 2010=100). Adjustments have also been made to the method used. The results published in this news release may therefore differ from the results as published based on 2010 (2010=100).

The figures in this publication are provisional and can be adjusted.

Sources

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