Economic situation slightly less favourable

© Hollandse Hoogte / Peter Hilz
According to the CBS Business Cycle Tracer, the economic situation is slightly less favourable in January compared to December. Statistics Netherlands (CBS) reports that almost all indicators in the Tracer as published mid-January are performing above the level of their long-term trend.

The CBS Business Cycle Tracer is a tool used to monitor the situation and the developments in the Dutch economy. It uses thirteen key macro-economic indicators. Together, these provide a coherent macro-economic picture which is based on CBS figures published over the past month or quarter. It does not represent the situation at the level of individual households, businesses or regions.

Business Cycle Tracer indicator (unweighted average of the indicators in the CBS Business Cycle Tracer) (distance to the long-term trend (=0))
 cycle
2011 January0.12
2011 February0.21
2011 March0.27
2011 April0.3
2011 May0.35
2011 June0.36
2011 July0.35
2011 August0.32
2011 September0.25
2011 October0.17
2011 November0.08
2011 December0
2012 January-0.05
2012 February-0.1
2012 March-0.13
2012 April-0.17
2012 May-0.24
2012 June-0.3
2012 July-0.36
2012 August-0.47
2012 September-0.55
2012 October-0.62
2012 November-0.73
2012 December-0.83
2013 January-0.91
2013 February-1.03
2013 March-1.11
2013 April-1.17
2013 May-1.25
2013 June-1.27
2013 July-1.28
2013 August-1.28
2013 September-1.22
2013 October-1.16
2013 November-1.08
2013 December-1
2014 January-0.94
2014 February-0.89
2014 March-0.86
2014 April-0.84
2014 May-0.81
2014 June-0.8
2014 July-0.78
2014 August-0.77
2014 September-0.76
2014 October-0.75
2014 November-0.73
2014 December-0.69
2015 January-0.66
2015 February-0.6
2015 March-0.54
2015 April-0.48
2015 May-0.41
2015 June-0.36
2015 July-0.31
2015 August-0.27
2015 September-0.24
2015 October-0.23
2015 November-0.21
2015 December-0.2
2016 January-0.21
2016 February-0.19
2016 March-0.18
2016 April-0.17
2016 May-0.12
2016 June-0.08
2016 July-0.05
2016 August0.01
2016 September0.05
2016 October0.1
2016 November0.16
2016 December0.22
2017 January0.27
2017 February0.34
2017 March0.39
2017 April0.42
2017 May0.48
2017 June0.51
2017 July0.54
2017 August0.61
2017 September0.65
2017 October0.7
2017 November0.78
2017 December0.82
2018 January0.85
2018 February0.91
2018 March0.94
2018 April0.95
2018 May0.99
2018 June1.01
2018 July1
2018 August1.03
2018 September1.03
2018 October1.02
2018 November1.02
2018 December1
2019 January0.97

Consumers less confident, producers more confident

The mood among Dutch consumers has deteriorated again in December compared to the previous month. Producer confidence improved in December. The confidence indicators remain well above their long-term average.

Consumer and producer confidence (seasonally adjusted) (average of the component questions)
 Consumer confidenceProducer confidence
2011 January-42.5
2011 February01.5
2011 March15.7
2011 April-24.3
2011 May-42.7
2011 June-71.7
2011 July-8-2.2
2011 August-16-3.2
2011 September-27-0.5
2011 October-34-3.1
2011 November-35-4.8
2011 December-37-1.3
2012 January-37-1.8
2012 February-36-1.7
2012 March-36-2.8
2012 April-32-3.4
2012 May-34-4.9
2012 June-37-4.8
2012 July-33-5.4
2012 August-31-4.7
2012 September-28-6.6
2012 October-29-7.6
2012 November-33-6.8
2012 December-38-5.6
2013 January-37-5.6
2013 February-41-3.7
2013 March-41-5.1
2013 April-37-5.6
2013 May-32-4.1
2013 June-33-3.8
2013 July-35-3.1
2013 August-32-1.4
2013 September-31-2.4
2013 October-26-0.3
2013 November-16-0.3
2013 December-110.1
2014 January-60.7
2014 February-2-0.1
2014 March11.1
2014 April40.3
2014 May60.7
2014 June60.7
2014 July61.2
2014 August20
2014 September-2-0.2
2014 October12
2014 November-22.4
2014 December-43.4
2015 January-22.8
2015 February-12
2015 March71.4
2015 April103.3
2015 May114.1
2015 June144.6
2015 July133.7
2015 August133.5
2015 September113.8
2015 October122.4
2015 November144
2015 December133
2016 January113.2
2016 February73.1
2016 March23.9
2016 April64.7
2016 May74.4
2016 June115.4
2016 July95.1
2016 August91.2
2016 September123.4
2016 October174.3
2016 November213.4
2016 December214.7
2017 January216
2017 February227
2017 March247.8
2017 April268.3
2017 May236.1
2017 June237.2
2017 July256.6
2017 August265.4
2017 September238.5
2017 October248.2
2017 November239.1
2017 December258.9
2018 January2410.3
2018 February2310.9
2018 March249.5
2018 April258.2
2018 May239.8
2018 June237.7
2018 July236.3
2018 August215.9
2018 September195.7
2018 October155.9
2018 November137.2
2018 December97.5

Household consumption, investments and exports growing

The total volume of goods exports grew by 0.6 percent in November relative to November 2017. Relative growth was smaller than in October. The most notable increases in November 2018 were seen in the export of machinery and petroleum products.

The volume of investments in tangible fixed assets was 7.4 percent up in October 2018 relative to the same month one year previously. Investments in dwellings, buildings and machinery were up again.

Dutch household consumption was 1.7 percent up in October 2018 over October 2017. The growth rate was the lowest so far this year. In October 2018, consumers mainly spent more on services.

Manufacturing output over 2 percent up in November

In November 2018, the average daily output generated by the Dutch manufacturing industry was up by 2.1 percent year-on-year. The growth rate was lower than in October. The metal products industry realised the strongest production growth. Adjusted for seasonal variation, manufacturing output reached its highest level ever.

Number of bankruptcies up again

There were 50 more bankruptcies in December than in November 2018. The total number of businesses and institutions (excluding one-man businesses) filing for bankruptcy in 2018 was 3,144. This is the lowest annual figure since 2001.

Number of jobs continues to grow

In Q3 2018, the number of full-time and part-time jobs held by employees and self-employed rose by 56 thousand relative to the previous quarter. It is the seventh consecutive quarter with job growth exceeding 50 thousand. Within one year, the number of jobs grew by 268 thousand.

The total number of hours worked by employees and self-employed reached 3.4 billion in Q3 2018. When adjusted for seasonal effects, this is 0.8 percent more than in Q2.
The number of job vacancies grew by 11 thousand in Q3 2018. As a result, 262 thousand job vacancies were available at the end of the quarter. The number of vacancies reached its highest level ever.

Tension in the labour market increased further in Q3; for each job vacancy there were 1.3 unemployed. The labour market was as tight as in the first three quarters of 2008.

The unemployment rate decreased in November to 3.5 and for the first time it is lower than just before the economic crisis in 2008. Unemployment declined by an average of 9 thousand per month to 326 thousand in November.

GDP (volume), seasonally adjusted (2010=100)
 index
2011 Quarter 1101.8
2011 Quarter 2101.7
2011 Quarter 3101.7
2011 Quarter 4101
2012 Quarter 1100.9
2012 Quarter 2100.9
2012 Quarter 3100.5
2012 Quarter 499.8
2013 Quarter 1100.1
2013 Quarter 299.9
2013 Quarter 3100.5
2013 Quarter 4101.1
2014 Quarter 1101
2014 Quarter 2101.6
2014 Quarter 3101.9
2014 Quarter 4102.8
2015 Quarter 1103.4
2015 Quarter 2103.7
2015 Quarter 3104.1
2015 Quarter 4104.2
2016 Quarter 1105.2
2016 Quarter 2105.4
2016 Quarter 3106.5
2016 Quarter 4107.3
2017 Quarter 1107.8
2017 Quarter 2108.8
2017 Quarter 3109.6
2017 Quarter 4110.6
2018 Quarter 1111.2
2018 Quarter 2111.9
2018 Quarter 3112.1

GDP growth 0.2 percent in Q3 2018

Gross domestic product (GDP) rose by 0.2 percent in Q3 2018 relative to the previous quarter, according to the second estimate of GDP conducted by CBS. GDP grew by 2.4 percent relative to Q3 2017.

On Thursday 14 February 2019, CBS will publish the first estimate of GDP and employment in Q4 2018. In addition, the annual figures over 2018 will be published.

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