Producer confidence increases again

© Hollandse Hoogte
According to Statistics Netherlands (CBS), producer confidence among Dutch manufacturers has increased in December 2018. Confidence stands at 7.5 in December, up from 7.2 in November. Producers are more positive about their future output.

On average, producer confidence stands at 7.9 in 2018, the highest annual average since the start of the survey in 1985.

The long-term average over the past two decades is 0.9. Producer confidence reached an all-time high (10.9) in February 2018 and an all-time low (-23.5) in February 2009. Optimism has prevailed among Dutch manufacturers since October 2014.

Producer confidence manufacturing industry (seasonally adjusted) (average of the component questions)
jaarmaandbalance
2015January2.8
February2
March1.4
April3.3
May4.1
June4.6
July3.7
August3.5
September3.8
October2.4
November4
December3
2016January3.2
February3.1
March3.9
April4.7
May4.4
June5.4
July5.1
August1.2
September3.4
October4.3
November3.4
December4.7
2017January6
February7
March7.8
April8.3
May6.1
June7.2
July6.6
August5.4
September8.5
October8.2
November9.1
December8.9
2018January10.3
February10.9
March9.5
April8.2
May9.8
June7.7
July6.3
August5.9
September5.7
October5.9
November7.2
December7.5

More positive about future output

In December, Dutch manufacturers are more positive about their future output than last month. However, manufacturers’ opinions about their order books and stocks of finished products have deteriorated.

All component indicators of producer confidence are positive. Manufacturers who anticipate output growth over the next three months outnumber those expecting output decline. More manufacturers consider their order position to be strong rather than weak, given the time of year; and a majority of manufacturers define their current stocks of finished products as too small rather than too large.

Producers in the wood and building materials industry most positive

In December, producers in the wood and building materials industry are the most positive for the tenth consecutive month.

Producer confidence by sector (seasonally adjusted) (average of the component questions)
 Dec-18Nov-18
Wood and construction20.220.2
Electrotechnical products and machinery10.810.2
Textiles, clothes, leather8.411.9
Petroleum7.23.1
Metal7.17.9
Food, beverages, tobacco5.85.5
Transport equipment3.24.4
Paper and printing2.46.4

Manufacturing output over 3 percent up in October

The average daily output generated by the Dutch manufacturing industry was 3.4 percent up in October on the same month last year, a slightly more substantial increase than in September. Adjusted for seasonal variation, manufacturing output reached the highest level ever in October.

German manufacturers again less positive

Germany is an important foreign market for the Dutch manufacturing industry. According to the IFO index, German manufacturers are markedly less optimistic in December about their future output. In October, the average daily output generated by the German manufacturing industry was over 1 percent higher than in the same month one year previously.

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