Producer confidence increases again

© Hollandse Hoogte
According to Statistics Netherlands (CBS), producer confidence among Dutch manufacturers has increased in December 2018. Confidence stands at 7.5 in December, up from 7.2 in November. Producers are more positive about their future output.

On average, producer confidence stands at 7.9 in 2018, the highest annual average since the start of the survey in 1985.

The long-term average over the past two decades is 0.9. Producer confidence reached an all-time high (10.9) in February 2018 and an all-time low (-23.5) in February 2009. Optimism has prevailed among Dutch manufacturers since October 2014.

Producer confidence manufacturing industry (seasonally adjusted) (average of the component questions)
 balance
2015 January2.8
2015 February2
2015 March1.4
2015 April3.3
2015 May4.1
2015 June4.6
2015 July3.7
2015 August3.5
2015 September3.8
2015 October2.4
2015 November4
2015 December3
2016 January3.2
2016 February3.1
2016 March3.9
2016 April4.7
2016 May4.4
2016 June5.4
2016 July5.1
2016 August1.2
2016 September3.4
2016 October4.3
2016 November3.4
2016 December4.7
2017 January6
2017 February7
2017 March7.8
2017 April8.3
2017 May6.1
2017 June7.2
2017 July6.6
2017 August5.4
2017 September8.5
2017 October8.2
2017 November9.1
2017 December8.9
2018 January10.3
2018 February10.9
2018 March9.5
2018 April8.2
2018 May9.8
2018 June7.7
2018 July6.3
2018 August5.9
2018 September5.7
2018 October5.9
2018 November7.2
2018 December7.5

More positive about future output

In December, Dutch manufacturers are more positive about their future output than last month. However, manufacturers’ opinions about their order books and stocks of finished products have deteriorated.

All component indicators of producer confidence are positive. Manufacturers who anticipate output growth over the next three months outnumber those expecting output decline. More manufacturers consider their order position to be strong rather than weak, given the time of year; and a majority of manufacturers define their current stocks of finished products as too small rather than too large.

Producers in the wood and building materials industry most positive

In December, producers in the wood and building materials industry are the most positive for the tenth consecutive month.

Producer confidence by sector (seasonally adjusted) (average of the component questions)
 Dec-18Nov-18
Wood and construction20.220.2
Electrotechnical products and machinery10.810.2
Textiles, clothes, leather8.411.9
Petroleum7.23.1
Metal7.17.9
Food, beverages, tobacco5.85.5
Transport equipment3.24.4
Paper and printing2.46.4

Manufacturing output over 3 percent up in October

The average daily output generated by the Dutch manufacturing industry was 3.4 percent up in October on the same month last year, a slightly more substantial increase than in September. Adjusted for seasonal variation, manufacturing output reached the highest level ever in October.

German manufacturers again less positive

Germany is an important foreign market for the Dutch manufacturing industry. According to the IFO index, German manufacturers are markedly less optimistic in December about their future output. In October, the average daily output generated by the German manufacturing industry was over 1 percent higher than in the same month one year previously.

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