Economic situation unchanged

© Hollandse Hoogte
According to the CBS Business Cycle Tracer, the economic situation has remained unchanged in September compared to the previous month. Statistics Netherlands (CBS) reports that all indicators in the Tracer as published in mid-September are performing above the level of their long-term trend.

The CBS Business Cycle Tracer is a tool used to monitor the situation and the developments in the Dutch economy. It uses thirteen key macro-economic indicators. Together, these provide a coherent macro-economic picture which is based on CBS figures published over the past month or quarter. It does not represent the situation at the level of individual households, businesses or regions.

Business Cycle Tracer indicator (unweighted average of the indicators in the CBS Business Cycle Tracer) (distance to the long-term trend (=0))
   cyclus
2011January0.11
February0.2
March0.25
April0.28
May0.34
June0.35
July0.33
August0.31
September0.24
October0.15
November0.07
December-0.01
2012January-0.06
February-0.11
March-0.14
April-0.17
May-0.25
June-0.31
July-0.37
August-0.47
September-0.55
October-0.62
November-0.73
December-0.82
2013January-0.9
February-1.02
March-1.11
April-1.17
May-1.25
June-1.27
July-1.28
August-1.27
September-1.22
October-1.15
November-1.08
December-1
2014January-0.94
February-0.88
March-0.85
April-0.83
May-0.81
June-0.79
July-0.77
August-0.74
September-0.73
October-0.72
November-0.7
December-0.67
2015January-0.63
February-0.57
March-0.52
April-0.46
May-0.4
June-0.34
July-0.3
August-0.25
September-0.22
October-0.21
November-0.18
December-0.16
2016January-0.16
February-0.13
March-0.12
April-0.1
May-0.05
June-0.01
July0.02
August0.08
September0.12
October0.17
November0.24
December0.29
2017January0.34
February0.41
March0.47
April0.52
May0.59
June0.63
July0.66
August0.74
September0.79
October0.84
November0.92
December0.97
2018January1
February1.05
March1.09
April1.1
May1.13
June1.14
July1.13
August1.15
September1.15

Consumers and producers less confident

The mood among Dutch consumers deteriorated again in September. Dutch manufacturers were less confident again in August 2018. However, the confidence indicators remain well above their long-term average.

Consumer and producer confidence (seasonally adjusted) (average of the component questions)
jaarmaandConsumer confidenceProducer confidence
2011January-42.5
February01.5
March15.7
April-24.3
May-42.7
June-71.7
July-8-2.2
August-16-3.2
September-27-0.5
October-34-3.1
November-35-4.8
December-37-1.3
2012January-37-1.8
February-36-1.7
March-36-2.8
April-32-3.4
May-34-4.9
June-37-4.8
July-33-5.4
August-31-4.7
September-28-6.6
October-29-7.6
November-33-6.8
December-38-5.6
2013January-37-5.6
February-41-3.7
March-41-5.1
April-37-5.6
May-32-4.1
June-33-3.8
July-35-3.1
August-32-1.4
September-31-2.4
October-26-0.3
November-16-0.3
December-110.1
2014January-60.7
February-2-0.1
March11.1
April40.3
May60.7
June60.7
July61.2
August20
September-2-0.2
October12
November-22.4
December-43.4
2015January-22.8
February-12
March71.4
April103.3
May114.1
June144.6
July133.7
August133.5
September113.8
October122.4
November144
December133
2016January113.2
February73.1
March23.9
April64.7
May74.4
June115.4
July95.1
August91.2
September123.4
October174.3
November213.4
December214.7
2017January216
February227
March247.8
April268.3
May236.1
June237.2
July256.6
August265.4
September238.5
October248.2
November239.1
December258.9
2018January2410.3
February2310.9
March249.5
April258.2
May239.8
June237.7
July236.3
August215.9
September19

Household consumption, investments and exports growing

The volume of investments in tangible fixed assets was 6.2 percent up in July 2018 relative to the same month last year. Year-on-year growth was less substantial than in the preceding month. In July 2018, investments in dwellings and buildings as well as in cars, lorries and machinery were up in particular.

Dutch household consumption was 2.6 percent up in July 2018 over July 2017. The growth rate was the same as in the previous month. In July 2018, consumers mainly spent more on food, beverages and tobacco.

The total volume of goods exports grew by 3.0 percent in July relative to July 2017. In June, exports fell slightly for the first time in over four years. In July 2018, exports of transport equipment increased most notably. Dutch companies also exported more machinery and appliances.

Manufacturing 2 percent up in July

The average daily output generated by the Dutch manufacturing industry was 2 percent up in July compared to the same month last year. The growth rate was lower than in June. For almost three years now, manufacturing output has continually been above the level of the same period year-on-year. The strongest growth in July 2018 was seen in the transport equipment industry.

Again slightly more bankruptcies

The number of corporate bankruptcies has increased slightly again.There were 6 more bankruptcies in August 2018 than in the previous month. However, the trend has been fairly flat for a year.

Number of jobs continues to grow

In Q2 2018, the number of full-time and part-time jobs held by employees and self-employed rose by 52 thousand relative to the previous quarter. It is the seventh consecutive quarter with job growth exceeding 50 thousand, although the growth pace has slowed down somewhat. The number of jobs has been growing almost continuously for over four years now, by over 675 thousand (7 percent) in total.

The total number of hours worked by employees and self-employed reached 3.4 billion in Q2 2018. When adjusted for seasonal effects, this is 0.6 percent more than in Q1.

The number of job vacancies grew by 16 thousand in Q2 2018. As a result, 251 thousand job vacancies were available at the end of the quarter. Growth has continued for five years now and has currently reached its highest level after Q4 2007, namely 249 thousand.The number of vacancies reached its record low (91 thousand vacancies) in mid-2013.

In August 353 thousand people indicated they had recently looked and were immediately available for work. These are the unemployed according to the definition of the International Labour Organization (ILO). On average, their number remained more or less stable between June and August. The unemployment rate in the Dutch labour force stood at 3.9 in August.This rate has been virtually at the same level for six months.

GDP (volume), seasonally adjusted (2010=100)
   index
2011Quarter 1101.8
Quarter 2101.7
Quarter 3101.7
Quarter 4101
2012Quarter 1100.9
Quarter 2100.9
Quarter 3100.5
Quarter 499.8
2013Quarter 1100.1
Quarter 299.9
Quarter 3100.5
Quarter 4101.1
2014Quarter 1101
Quarter 2101.6
Quarter 3101.9
Quarter 4102.8
2015Quarter 1103.4
Quarter 2103.7
Quarter 3104.1
Quarter 4104.2
2016Quarter 1105.2
Quarter 2105.4
Quarter 3106.4
Quarter 4107.3
2017Quarter 1107.9
Quarter 2108.9
Quarter 3109.5
Quarter 4110.5
2018Quarter 1111.2
Quarter 2112.1

GDP growth 0.8 percent in Q2 2018

Gross domestic product (GDP) rose by 0.8 percent in Q2 relative to the previous quarter, according to the second estimate of GDP conducted by CBS. Growth is mainly due to exports. Investments in fixed assets and household consumption also grew.

GDP grew by 3.1 percent relative to Q2 2017.

On Wednesday 14 November 2018, CBS will publish the first estimate of GDP and employment in Q3 2018.

Sources