GDP growth rate 0.6 percent in Q1 2018

© Hollandse Hoogte
According to the second estimate conducted by Statistics Netherlands (CBS), gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 0.6 percent in Q1 2018 relative to Q4 2017. The second GDP estimate is published approximately 90 days after the end of the quarter. The recently implemented revision of the national accounts has also been incorporated into this second estimate.

The growth rate is 0.1 percentage point higher than in the first estimate, which was published on 15 May. This is partly due to an upward adjustment of investments and household consumption, but the export surplus was adjusted downwards. The overall picture of the economy has remained unchanged. Growth is mainly due to increased investments in fixed assets and household consumption.

GDP, seasonally adjusted (2010=100)
   index
2011I101.8
II101.7
III101.7
IV101
2012I100.9
II100.9
III100.5
IV99.8
2013I100.1
II99.9
III100.5
IV101.1
2014I101
II101.6
III101.9
IV102.8
2015I103.4
II103.7
III104.1
IV104.2
2016I105.2
II105.4
III106.4
IV107.3
2017I107.8
II108.9
III109.5
IV110.5
2018I111.1

Second estimate

The second estimate is conducted 90 days after the end of the quarter. The first estimate, which is calculated 45 days after the end of the quarter, is based on the most recent data available at that moment. After the first estimate, more new information about the state of the Dutch economy keeps pouring in, e.g. data about the sectors construction business services, hotels and restaurants, government care and the financial sector. These data are subsequently incorporated into new calculations.

In absolute terms, adjustments in the second estimate relative to the first have averaged 0.1 percentage point over the past half decade, with the two extremes at - 0.3 and + 0.5 percentage point.

Revision

In the second estimate of Q1 2018, the figures reflect the recently implemented revision of the national accounts. The European Commission’s recommendation to all members states is to revise their national accounts at least once every five years. This revision is in response to this recommendation.

A national accounts revision introduces new sources, methods and concepts which ensure that the picture of the Dutch economy is again optimally aligned with the underlying statistics, sources and international guidelines for the compilation of the national accounts.

Revision of growth rate in previous quarters

With each new calculation of the GDP, CBS also recalculates the seasonally adjusted series of previously published quarters. Since the national accounts revision has been incorporated here, adjustments are greater than usual. Quarter-on-quarter growth has been revised as follows: from 0.7 to 0.9 percent in Q4 2017, from 0.4 to 0.6 percent in Q3 2017, from 1.5 to 1.0 percent in Q2 2017, and from 0.7 to 0.5 percent in Q1 2017.

GDP (year on year %-change)
   change
2011I2.8
II2.1
III1.4
IV0
2012I-1.1
II-0.6
III-1.2
IV-1.2
2013I-1.7
II-0.5
III0.3
IV1.4
2014I1.3
II1.4
III1.1
IV1.8
2015I1.9
II2.1
III2.5
IV1.4
2016I2.3
II2.4
III2.1
IV2
2017I3
II2.9
III2.8
IV2.7
2018I2.8

Growth relative to Q1 2017

Year-on-year, the economic growth rate in Q1 was 2.8 percent, the same as in the first estimate. In the context of the national accounts revision, all quarterly figures in the period 1995-2018 have been recalculated, resulting in different year-on-year changes throughout this period.

Annual figures

In addition, the annual figures over 1995-2017 have been redetermined following the revision. Data on the revised time series <<link>> can be found on StatLine. The economic growth rate for 2017 has been revised downwards from 3.2 to 2.9 percent. Economic growth over 2016 remains unchanged at 2.2 percent.

66 thousand new jobs

The second estimate shows that the number of employee and self-employed jobs increased by 66 thousand in Q1 2018 relative to Q4 2017. The first estimate suggested an increase of 76 thousand jobs.

Year-on-year, the number of employee and self-employed jobs grew by an additional 259 thousand according to the second estimate over Q1, versus 262 thousand according to the first estimate.

Job figures have been adjusted on the basis of additional source information.

Total jobs (seasonally adjusted) (Quarter-on-quarter change (x 1,000))
   change
2011I56
II45
III12
IV-4
2012I-3
II-16
III-31
IV-40
2013I-52
II-21
III-10
IV-11
2014I-10
II16
III16
IV25
2015I38
II29
III28
IV26
2016I-4
II37
III35
IV50
2017I54
II57
III61
IV73
2018I66

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