GDP growth rate 0.6 percent in Q1 2018

© Hollandse Hoogte
According to the second estimate conducted by Statistics Netherlands (CBS), gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 0.6 percent in Q1 2018 relative to Q4 2017. The second GDP estimate is published approximately 90 days after the end of the quarter. The recently implemented revision of the national accounts has also been incorporated into this second estimate.

The growth rate is 0.1 percentage point higher than in the first estimate, which was published on 15 May. This is partly due to an upward adjustment of investments and household consumption, but the export surplus was adjusted downwards. The overall picture of the economy has remained unchanged. Growth is mainly due to increased investments in fixed assets and household consumption.

 index
2011 I101.8
2011 II101.7
2011 III101.7
2011 IV101
2012 I100.9
2012 II100.9
2012 III100.5
2012 IV99.8
2013 I100.1
2013 II99.9
2013 III100.5
2013 IV101.1
2014 I101
2014 II101.6
2014 III101.9
2014 IV102.8
2015 I103.4
2015 II103.7
2015 III104.1
2015 IV104.2
2016 I105.2
2016 II105.4
2016 III106.4
2016 IV107.3
2017 I107.8
2017 II108.9
2017 III109.5
2017 IV110.5
2018 I111.1

Second estimate

The second estimate is conducted 90 days after the end of the quarter. The first estimate, which is calculated 45 days after the end of the quarter, is based on the most recent data available at that moment. After the first estimate, more new information about the state of the Dutch economy keeps pouring in, e.g. data about the sectors construction business services, hotels and restaurants, government care and the financial sector. These data are subsequently incorporated into new calculations.

In absolute terms, adjustments in the second estimate relative to the first have averaged 0.1 percentage point over the past half decade, with the two extremes at - 0.3 and + 0.5 percentage point.

Revision

In the second estimate of Q1 2018, the figures reflect the recently implemented revision of the national accounts. The European Commission’s recommendation to all members states is to revise their national accounts at least once every five years. This revision is in response to this recommendation.

A national accounts revision introduces new sources, methods and concepts which ensure that the picture of the Dutch economy is again optimally aligned with the underlying statistics, sources and international guidelines for the compilation of the national accounts.

Revision of growth rate in previous quarters

With each new calculation of the GDP, CBS also recalculates the seasonally adjusted series of previously published quarters. Since the national accounts revision has been incorporated here, adjustments are greater than usual. Quarter-on-quarter growth has been revised as follows: from 0.7 to 0.9 percent in Q4 2017, from 0.4 to 0.6 percent in Q3 2017, from 1.5 to 1.0 percent in Q2 2017, and from 0.7 to 0.5 percent in Q1 2017.

 change
2011 I2.8
2011 II2.1
2011 III1.4
2011 IV0
2012 I-1.1
2012 II-0.6
2012 III-1.2
2012 IV-1.2
2013 I-1.7
2013 II-0.5
2013 III0.3
2013 IV1.4
2014 I1.3
2014 II1.4
2014 III1.1
2014 IV1.8
2015 I1.9
2015 II2.1
2015 III2.5
2015 IV1.4
2016 I2.3
2016 II2.4
2016 III2.1
2016 IV2
2017 I3
2017 II2.9
2017 III2.8
2017 IV2.7
2018 I2.8

Growth relative to Q1 2017

Year-on-year, the economic growth rate in Q1 was 2.8 percent, the same as in the first estimate. In the context of the national accounts revision, all quarterly figures in the period 1995-2018 have been recalculated, resulting in different year-on-year changes throughout this period.

Annual figures

In addition, the annual figures over 1995-2017 have been redetermined following the revision. Data on the revised time series <<link>> can be found on StatLine. The economic growth rate for 2017 has been revised downwards from 3.2 to 2.9 percent. Economic growth over 2016 remains unchanged at 2.2 percent.

66 thousand new jobs

The second estimate shows that the number of employee and self-employed jobs increased by 66 thousand in Q1 2018 relative to Q4 2017. The first estimate suggested an increase of 76 thousand jobs.

Year-on-year, the number of employee and self-employed jobs grew by an additional 259 thousand according to the second estimate over Q1, versus 262 thousand according to the first estimate.

Job figures have been adjusted on the basis of additional source information.

 change
2011 I56
2011 II45
2011 III12
2011 IV-4
2012 I-3
2012 II-16
2012 III-31
2012 IV-40
2013 I-52
2013 II-21
2013 III-10
2013 IV-11
2014 I-10
2014 II16
2014 III16
2014 IV25
2015 I38
2015 II29
2015 III28
2015 IV26
2016 I-4
2016 II37
2016 III35
2016 IV50
2017 I54
2017 II57
2017 III61
2017 IV73
2018 I66

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