Economic situation improves further

© Hollandse Hoogte / Berlinda van Dam
According to the CBS Business Cycle Tracer, the economic situation has improved further in November compared to one month previously. Statistics Netherlands (CBS) reports that all indicators in the Tracer published mid-November are performing above the level of their long-term trend.

Statistics Netherlands’ Business Cycle Tracer is a tool used to monitor the economic situation and economic developments. It uses thirteen key macro-economic indicators, which - together - provide a coherent macro-economic picture of the state of the Dutch economy as published by CBS during the last month or quarter

Business cycle tracer indicator (unweighted average of the indicators in the Business Cycle Tracer)
Business cycle tracer indicator (unweighted average of the indicators in the Business Cycle Tracer)
 cycle
2010 J-0.6
2010 F-0.58
2010 M-0.54
2010 A-0.48
2010 M-0.43
2010 J-0.38
2010 J-0.32
2010 A-0.27
2010 S-0.2
2010 O-0.13
2010 N-0.04
2010 D0.04
2011 J0.1
2011 F0.19
2011 M0.25
2011 A0.28
2011 M0.33
2011 J0.34
2011 J0.32
2011 A0.3
2011 S0.23
2011 O0.15
2011 N0.06
2011 D-0.01
2012 J-0.06
2012 F-0.11
2012 M-0.14
2012 A-0.17
2012 M-0.24
2012 J-0.3
2012 J-0.36
2012 A-0.45
2012 S-0.53
2012 O-0.59
2012 N-0.7
2012 D-0.79
2013 J-0.87
2013 F-0.99
2013 M-1.08
2013 A-1.14
2013 M-1.21
2013 J-1.24
2013 J-1.25
2013 A-1.25
2013 S-1.2
2013 O-1.13
2013 N-1.05
2013 D-0.98
2014 J-0.91
2014 F-0.85
2014 M-0.81
2014 A-0.79
2014 M-0.76
2014 J-0.74
2014 J-0.72
2014 A-0.69
2014 S-0.67
2014 O-0.66
2014 N-0.62
2014 D-0.58
2015 J-0.54
2015 F-0.47
2015 M-0.41
2015 A-0.34
2015 M-0.27
2015 J-0.21
2015 J-0.16
2015 A-0.11
2015 S-0.07
2015 O-0.05
2015 N-0.01
2015 D0.02
2016 J0.03
2016 F0.07
2016 M0.1
2016 A0.13
2016 M0.2
2016 J0.24
2016 J0.29
2016 A0.36
2016 S0.41
2016 O0.46
2016 N0.56
2016 D0.63
2017 J0.69
2017 F0.8
2017 M0.87
2017 A0.93
2017 M1.03
2017 J1.08
2017 J1.13
2017 A1.23
2017 S1.29
2017 O1.34
2017 N1.41

Manufacturers and consumers positive

The mood among Dutch consumers remained unchanged in October. Opinions of Dutch consumers on the economic climate and consumers’ willingness also remained the same.
Confidence among Dutch manufacturers hardly changed in October. Producer and consumer confidence are both far above the level of their long-term average.

Consumer and producer confidence (seasonally adjusted)
Consumer and producer confidence (seasonally adjusted)
 Consumer confidenceProducer confidence
2011 J-42.5
2011 F01.5
2011 M15.7
2011 A-24.3
2011 M-42.7
2011 J-61.7
2011 J-8-2.2
2011 A-16-3.2
2011 S-27-0.5
2011 O-34-3.1
2011 N-35-4.8
2011 D-36-1.3
2012 J-37-1.8
2012 F-36-1.7
2012 M-36-2.8
2012 A-32-3.4
2012 M-34-4.9
2012 J-37-4.8
2012 J-33-5.4
2012 A-31-4.7
2012 S-28-6.6
2012 O-29-7.6
2012 N-33-6.8
2012 D-38-5.6
2013 J-37-5.6
2013 F-41-3.7
2013 M-41-5.1
2013 A-37-5.6
2013 M-32-4.1
2013 J-33-3.8
2013 J-35-3.1
2013 A-32-1.4
2013 S-31-2.4
2013 O-26-0.3
2013 N-16-0.3
2013 D-110.1
2014 J-60.7
2014 F-2-0.1
2014 M11.1
2014 A40.3
2014 M60.7
2014 J60.7
2014 J51.2
2014 A20
2014 S-2-0.2
2014 O12
2014 N-22.4
2014 D-43.4
2015 J-22.8
2015 F-12
2015 M71.4
2015 A103.3
2015 M114.1
2015 J144.6
2015 J133.7
2015 A133.5
2015 S113.8
2015 O122.4
2015 N144
2015 D133
2016 J113.2
2016 F63.1
2016 M23.9
2016 A64.7
2016 M74.4
2016 J115.4
2016 J95.1
2016 A91.2
2016 S123.4
2016 O174.3
2016 N213.4
2016 D214.7
2016 J216
2016 F227
2016 M247.8
2016 A268.3
2016 M236.1
2016 J237.2
2016 J256.6
2016 A265.4
2016 S238.5
2016 O238.2

Exports, household consumption and investments up

Exports of goods and services grew by 6.0 percent in Q3 2017 relative to Q3 2016. The growth rate was higher than in the first two quarters of 2017. Dutch companies exported mainly more machinery and appliances. Exports of chemical products and cars were also higher.

Dutch consumer spending was 2.5 percent up in Q3 2017 year-on-year. The growth rate was slightly higher compared to the preceding quarters. Consumers mainly spent more on electrical appliances, clothing and home furnishing articles.

Dutch consumers also spent more on services, e.g. in hotels and restaurants. Household spending on services accounts for over half of total domestic consumer spending.

The volume of investments in tangible fixed assets was 6.2 percent up relative to Q3 2016. Investments in residential property, airplanes and passenger cars increased significantly. Investments in machinery were also up.

Manufacturing output over 5 percent up in September

Average daily output generated by the Dutch manufacturing industry was over 5 percent up in September 2017 compared to September 2016. The growth rate was higher than in August. For two years now, manufacturing output has continually been above the level of the same period year-on-year.

More bankruptcies in October

The number of corporate bankruptcies has increased. There were 20 more bankruptcies in October than in September 2017. Despite this increase, the trend is still downward.

Labour market improves further

The number of jobs held by employees and self-employed rose by 51 thousand in Q3 2017 relative to Q2 2017. The number of job vacancies grew by 9 thousand in Q3 2017. The increase was slightly smaller than in the previous two quarters.

Unemployment (ILO definition) amounted to 428 thousand in Q3. This number declined by 25 thousand on the previous quarter. The unemployment rate stood at 4.7 percent.

Turnover temp agencies continues to rise

Turnover generated by temping agencies, employment agencies and payroll companies grew by 2.0 percent in Q2 2017 relative to Q1 2017. This growth is higher than in the preceding quarter. The total number of temp hours increased by over 4 percent, the highest increase since Q2 2007.

GDP growth 0.4 percent in Q3 2017

Gross domestic product (GDP) rose by 0.4 percent in Q3 2017 relative to Q2 2017 as shown in the first estimate of GDP conducted by CBS. Growth is widely supported; investments, consumption and exports were higher. The GDP growth rate was 3.0 percent in Q3 2017 compared to Q3 2016.

Gross Domestic Product (volume, seasonally adjusted)
Gross Domestic Product (volume, seasonally adjusted)
 Index
2010 I100.4
2010 II101
2010 III101.3
2010 IV102.6
2011 I103.3
2011 II103.2
2011 III103.2
2011 IV102.4
2012 I102.3
2012 II102.3
2012 III101.9
2012 IV101.2
2013 I101.5
2013 II101.3
2013 III101.9
2013 IV102.5
2014 I102.3
2014 II102.9
2014 III103.3
2014 IV104.5
2015 I105.3
2015 II105.3
2015 III105.7
2015 IV106.1
2015 I106.9
2015 II107.2
2015 III108.3
2015 IV109
2015 I109.7
2015 II111.3
2015 III111.8

On Friday 22 December 2017, CBS will publish the second estimate of GDP and employment in Q3 2017.

Sources