Economic situation improves further

14/11/2017 15:00
According to the CBS Business Cycle Tracer, the economic situation has improved further in November compared to one month previously. Statistics Netherlands (CBS) reports that all indicators in the Tracer published mid-November are performing above the level of their long-term trend.

Statistics Netherlands’ Business Cycle Tracer is a tool used to monitor the economic situation and economic developments. It uses thirteen key macro-economic indicators, which - together - provide a coherent macro-economic picture of the state of the Dutch economy as published by CBS during the last month or quarter

Business cycle tracer indicator (unweighted average of the indicators in the Business Cycle Tracer)

Manufacturers and consumers positive

The mood among Dutch consumers remained unchanged in October. Opinions of Dutch consumers on the economic climate and consumers’ willingness also remained the same.
Confidence among Dutch manufacturers hardly changed in October. Producer and consumer confidence are both far above the level of their long-term average.

Consumer and producer confidence (seasonally adjusted)

Exports, household consumption and investments up

Exports of goods and services grew by 6.0 percent in Q3 2017 relative to Q3 2016. The growth rate was higher than in the first two quarters of 2017. Dutch companies exported mainly more machinery and appliances. Exports of chemical products and cars were also higher.

Dutch consumer spending was 2.5 percent up in Q3 2017 year-on-year. The growth rate was slightly higher compared to the preceding quarters. Consumers mainly spent more on electrical appliances, clothing and home furnishing articles.

Dutch consumers also spent more on services, e.g. in hotels and restaurants. Household spending on services accounts for over half of total domestic consumer spending.

The volume of investments in tangible fixed assets was 6.2 percent up relative to Q3 2016. Investments in residential property, airplanes and passenger cars increased significantly. Investments in machinery were also up.

Manufacturing output over 5 percent up in September

Average daily output generated by the Dutch manufacturing industry was over 5 percent up in September 2017 compared to September 2016. The growth rate was higher than in August. For two years now, manufacturing output has continually been above the level of the same period year-on-year.

More bankruptcies in October

The number of corporate bankruptcies has increased. There were 20 more bankruptcies in October than in September 2017. Despite this increase, the trend is still downward.

Labour market improves further

The number of jobs held by employees and self-employed rose by 51 thousand in Q3 2017 relative to Q2 2017. The number of job vacancies grew by 9 thousand in Q3 2017. The increase was slightly smaller than in the previous two quarters.

Unemployment (ILO definition) amounted to 428 thousand in Q3. This number declined by 25 thousand on the previous quarter. The unemployment rate stood at 4.7 percent.

Turnover temp agencies continues to rise

Turnover generated by temping agencies, employment agencies and payroll companies grew by 2.0 percent in Q2 2017 relative to Q1 2017. This growth is higher than in the preceding quarter. The total number of temp hours increased by over 4 percent, the highest increase since Q2 2007.

GDP growth 0.4 percent in Q3 2017

Gross domestic product (GDP) rose by 0.4 percent in Q3 2017 relative to Q2 2017 as shown in the first estimate of GDP conducted by CBS. Growth is widely supported; investments, consumption and exports were higher. The GDP growth rate was 3.0 percent in Q3 2017 compared to Q3 2016.

Gross Domestic Product (volume, seasonally adjusted)

On Friday 22 December 2017, CBS will publish the second estimate of GDP and employment in Q3 2017.

Sources