Economic situation improves

© Hollandse Hoogte
According to the CBS Business Cycle Tracer, the economic situation has improved in October compared to one month previously. Statistics Netherlands (CBS) reports that all indicators in the Tracer published mid-October are performing above the level of their long-term trend.

Statistics Netherlands’ Business Cycle Tracer is a tool used to monitor the economic situation and economic developments. It uses thirteen key macro-economic indicators, which - together - provide a coherent macro-economic picture of the state of the Dutch economy as published by CBS during the last month or quarter.

Business cycle tracer indicator (unweighted average of the indicators in the Business Cycle Tracer)
 cycle
2010 J-0.61
2010 F-0.58
2010 M-0.55
2010 A-0.48
2010 M-0.43
2010 J-0.39
2010 J-0.33
2010 A-0.27
2010 S-0.21
2010 O-0.13
2010 N-0.05
2010 D0.04
2011 J0.1
2011 F0.19
2011 M0.24
2011 A0.27
2011 M0.33
2011 J0.34
2011 J0.32
2011 A0.3
2011 S0.23
2011 O0.15
2011 N0.06
2011 D-0.01
2012 J-0.06
2012 F-0.11
2012 M-0.14
2012 A-0.17
2012 M-0.24
2012 J-0.3
2012 J-0.36
2012 A-0.45
2012 S-0.53
2012 O-0.59
2012 N-0.7
2012 D-0.79
2013 J-0.87
2013 F-0.99
2013 M-1.08
2013 A-1.14
2013 M-1.21
2013 J-1.24
2013 J-1.24
2013 A-1.24
2013 S-1.19
2013 O-1.12
2013 N-1.05
2013 D-0.97
2014 J-0.9
2014 F-0.84
2014 M-0.8
2014 A-0.78
2014 M-0.74
2014 J-0.72
2014 J-0.7
2014 A-0.67
2014 S-0.65
2014 O-0.64
2014 N-0.6
2014 D-0.56
2015 J-0.52
2015 F-0.45
2015 M-0.38
2015 A-0.32
2015 M-0.25
2015 J-0.18
2015 J-0.13
2015 A-0.08
2015 S-0.03
2015 O-0.01
2015 N0.03
2015 D0.06
2016 J0.07
2016 F0.12
2016 M0.15
2016 A0.18
2016 M0.25
2016 J0.3
2016 J0.34
2016 A0.42
2016 S0.47
2016 O0.53
2016 N0.63
2016 D0.7
2017 J0.76
2017 F0.88
2017 M0.95
2017 A1
2017 M1.11
2017 J1.16
2017 J1.21
2017 A1.31
2017 S1.37
2017 O1.42

Manufacturers and consumers positive

The mood among Dutch consumers deteriorated slightly in September compared to August. Opinions of Dutch consumers on the economic climate were less positive. Confidence among Dutch manufacturers increased in September and reached its highest level in 9.5 years. Producer and consumer confidence are both far above the level of their long-term average.

Consumer and producer confidence (seasonally adjusted)
 Consumer confidenceProducer confidence
2011 J-42.5
2011 F01.5
2011 M15.7
2011 A-24.3
2011 M-42.7
2011 J-61.7
2011 J-8-2.2
2011 A-16-3.2
2011 S-27-0.5
2011 O-34-3.1
2011 N-35-4.8
2011 D-36-1.3
2012 J-37-1.8
2012 F-36-1.7
2012 M-36-2.8
2012 A-32-3.4
2012 M-34-4.9
2012 J-37-4.8
2012 J-33-5.4
2012 A-31-4.7
2012 S-28-6.6
2012 O-29-7.6
2012 N-33-6.8
2012 D-38-5.6
2013 J-37-5.6
2013 F-41-3.7
2013 M-41-5.1
2013 A-37-5.6
2013 M-32-4.1
2013 J-33-3.8
2013 J-35-3.1
2013 A-32-1.4
2013 S-31-2.4
2013 O-26-0.3
2013 N-16-0.3
2013 D-110.1
2014 J-60.7
2014 F-2-0.1
2014 M11.1
2014 A40.3
2014 M60.7
2014 J60.7
2014 J51.2
2014 A20
2014 S-2-0.2
2014 O12
2014 N-22.4
2014 D-43.4
2015 J-22.8
2015 F-12
2015 M71.4
2015 A103.3
2015 M114.1
2015 J144.6
2015 J133.7
2015 A133.5
2015 S113.8
2015 O122.4
2015 N144
2015 D133
2016 J113.2
2016 F63.1
2016 M23.9
2016 A64.7
2016 M74.4
2016 J115.4
2016 J95.1
2016 A91.2
2016 S123.4
2016 O174.3
2016 N213.4
2016 D214.7
2016 J216
2016 F227
2016 M247.8
2016 A268.3
2016 M236.1
2016 J237.2
2016 J256.6
2016 A265.4
2016 S238.5

Exports, household consumption and investments up

The volume of goods exports grew by over 7 percent in August 2017 relative to the same month one year previously. Growth was slightly higher than in July. In August, the export of cars, machinery, appliances and chemical products increased most notably. Both exports of goods produced in the Netherlands and re-exports were higher in volume than one year previously.

The volume of investments in tangible fixed assets was 9.3 percent up in July 2017 compared to the same month last year. This is mainly due to higher investments in airplanes, residential property, machinery and passenger cars.

Dutch consumer spending was 2.8 percent up in July 2017 year-on-year. The growth rate has been above 2 percent for already four months in a row. Consumers mainly spent more on home furnishing articles.

Manufacturing output nearly 4 percent up in August

Average daily output generated by the Dutch manufacturing industry was nearly 4 percent up in August 2017 compared to August 2016. The growth rate was slightly higher than in July. For almost two years now, manufacturing output has continually been above the level of the same period year-on-year. The strongest growth was seen in the transport equipment industry.

Slightly more bankruptcies in September

The number of corporate bankruptcies has increased slightly. There were 4 more bankruptcies in September than in August 2017. In August, the number of bankruptcies reached its lowest level since the beginning of this century.

Labour market improves further

The number of jobs held by employees and self-employed rose by 53 thousand in Q2 2017 relative to Q1 2017. The number of job vacancies grew by 20 thousand in Q2 2017, the most substantial quarterly increase in over 10 years.

Unemployment (ILO definition) amounted to 426 thousand in Q2. This number declined by 10 thousand per month on average over the past three months. The unemployment rate stood at 4.7 percent.

Turnover temp agencies continues to rise

Turnover generated by temping agencies, employment agencies and payroll companies grew by 2.0 percent in Q2 2017 relative to Q1 2017. This growth is higher than in the preceding quarter. The total number of temp hours increased by over 4 percent, the highest increase since Q2 2007.

Gross Domestic Product (volume, seasonally adjusted)
 Index
2010 I100.4
2010 II101
2010 III101.3
2010 IV102.6
2011 I103.3
2011 II103.2
2011 III103.2
2011 IV102.4
2012 I102.3
2012 II102.3
2012 III101.9
2012 IV101.2
2013 I101.5
2013 II101.3
2013 III101.9
2013 IV102.5
2014 I102.3
2014 II102.9
2014 III103.3
2014 IV104.5
2015 I105.3
2015 II105.3
2015 III105.7
2015 IV106.1
2015 I106.9
2015 II107.3
2015 III108.2
2015 IV109
2015 I109.7
2015 II111.4

GDP growth 1.5 percent in Q2 2017

Gross domestic product (GDP) rose by 1.5 percent in Q2 2017 relative to Q1 2017 as shown in the second estimate of GDP conducted by CBS. Exports and household consumption were the main contributors to economic growth. Investments also grew. The GDP growth rate was 3.3 percent in Q2 2017 compared to Q2 2016.

On Tuesday 14 November 2017, CBS will publish the first estimate of GDP and employment in Q3 2017.

Sources