GDP grows 0.6 percent in Q4 2016

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According to the second estimate conducted by Statistics Netherlands (CBS), the gross domestic product (GDP) showed a 0.6 percent growth in Q4 2016 relative to Q3. The second estimate is always published 90 days after the end of the quarter. GDP is a measure for the size of a country’s economy.

The growth figure is 0.1 percentage points higher than in the first estimate published on 14 February. This is partly due to an upward adjustment of investments in the construction sector. Government consumption was also adjusted upwards, but the export surplus was adjusted downwards.

The economic situation remains the same. Exports and household consumption were the main contributors to economic growth in Q4.

Second estimate

The second estimate is conducted 90 days after the end of the quarter. The first estimate, 45 days after the end of the quarter is based on the most recent data then available. After the first estimate, more new information about the state of the Dutch economy is continually pouring in, e.g. data about the construction sector, the sector business services and the sector hotels and restaurants. These data are subsequently incorporated in new calculations.

The first estimate of the GDP in Q4 provides little information about December. Data from a number of construction companies, for example, are still lacking and the response rate is always lower in Q4 than in the first three quarters. In absolute terms, the adjustment of the second estimate relative to the first estimate averaged 0.1 percentage points over the past half decade, with the two extremes ranging between - 0.3 and + 0.4 percentage points.

Preceding three quarters not adjusted on the basis of quarterly growth

With each new estimate, CBS also recalculates the seasonally adjusted series of previously published quarters. When the second estimate for Q4 is carried out, the first three quarters are also adjusted on the basis of the most recent data. This has not given rise to corrections in the quarter-on-quarter growth of the first three quarters of 2016.

Growth relative to Q4 2015

Year-on-year, Dutch economic growth was 2.5 percent in Q4, as against 2.3 percent in the first estimate. Growth in Q3 was also adjusted upwards, from 2.4 to 2.5 percent.

Economic growth in the Netherlands 2.2 percent in 2016

On the basis of the second estimate, the economic growth rate over the entire year 2016 was 2.2 percent, i.e. 0.1 percentage points higher than in the first estimate.

Employment: 62 thousand new jobs

The second estimate shows that the number of employee and self-employed jobs increased by 62 thousand in Q4 2016 compared to Q3. The first estimate suggested an increase of 53 thousand jobs.

In Q4 2016 the second estimate suggested a growth of 139 thousand employee and self-employed jobs compared to the same quarter in 2015, versus 138 thousand according to the first estimate.

Job figures are adjusted when additional information becomes available. In the first three quarters of 2016, figures were also adjusted on the basis of the most recent data.