Second estimate Statistics Netherlands: Economic growth marginally adjusted downwards

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On the basis of additional information, Statistics Netherlands announced today that the second estimate shows that the Dutch economy grew 0.1 percent in the third quarter of 2014 relative to the second quarter. According to the first estimate, the so-called flash estimate, published on 14 November, economic growth was rated at 0.2 percent. The difference of 0.1 percentage points was mainly accounted for by a downward adjustment of investment spending on fixed capital formation. The picture of the economy has not changed as a result of the second estimate. The growth of the Dutch economy is predominantly based on exports and – to a lesser extent – on investments. In the first quarter of 2014, the economy contracted, followed by two consecutive quarters of marginal economic growth, but the recovery is still fragile. The business cycle has not shown any improvement over the past six months.

The flash estimate is a first evaluation based on information available 45 days after the end of a quarter. After this flash estimate, new information about the state of the Dutch economy is pouring in. For the second estimate, for example, additional information is becoming available about companies active in the sectors business services, construction and hotels and restaurants. On the basis of this information, economic growth was marginally adjusted downwards in the second estimate compared to the first estimate. In absolute figures, the adjustment based on the second estimate compared to the flash estimate averaged 0.1 percentage points over the past half decade with extremes ranging between – 0.3 and + 0.4 percentage points.

Seasonal adjustments

With each new estimate of economic growth, Statistics Netherlands also calculates new seasonally adjusted figures for all quarters published previously. As a result of the new calculation, quarter-on-quarter changes referring to quarters published earlier can also be revised. The second-quarter growth did not change, but the growth in the first quarter was adjusted from – 0.3 to – 0.4 percent.

Growth relative to third quarter of 2013

Economic growth relative to one year previously was 1.0 percent in the third quarter, versus 1.1 percent according to the first estimate. The downward adjustment is mainly due to investments in machinery and installations, which were lower than initially calculated.

Number of jobs growing faster than expected

On the basis of additional data, information on the number of jobs was also adjusted. According to the second estimate, the number of jobs of employees and self-employed was 10 thousand up from the second quarter. The increase on the basis of the first estimate was 5.5 thousand. Relative to the third quarter of 2013, employment fell by 16 thousand jobs according to the second estimate, but according to the first estimate, the number of jobs of employees and self-employed fell by 21 thousand.