Population forecast, Caribbean Netherlands 2026-2050

The Bottom, Saba
© CBS
Statistics Netherlands (CBS) has compiled a new population forecast for the special municipalities of the Caribbean Netherlands based on the most recent data. This paper outlines the main findings and the differences relative to the previous forecast from 2025.

The population of Bonaire is expected to grow from 27.6 thousand today to 36.6 thousand by the year 2035. Last year’s forecast was for 34.2 thousand inhabitants on Bonaire in 2035. In the case of St Eustatius, the population is expected to grow from 3.3 thousand today to 3.4 thousand in 2035 - last year’s forecast was 3.3 thousand in 2035. Saba had a population of 2.3 thousand at the beginning of 2026, and this is expected to rise to 2.5 thousand by 2035: in the previous forecast the figure was 2.2 thousand.

Assumptions on migration

In 2025, 212 more people came to live on Bonaire than was predicted in the previous forecast (or 11 percent more). On Saba and St Eustatius, too, the number of migrants arriving was higher than expected in the previous forecast: 33 higher (18 percent) in the case of Saba, and 39 higher (27 percent) in the case of St Eustatius.

The immigration figures for the current year (2026) are estimated on the basis of the provisional monthly immigration figures up to and including May and the seasonal pattern observed in previous years. However, in the first few months of 2026, a relatively large number of migrant workers, mainly from Türkiye (Turkey), arrived on Saba. In our forecast for 2026, we do not apply the usual seasonal pattern to this group, because that pattern has primarily been determined by the arrival in Saba of students from North America mainly in the second half of the year. We assume that this extra labour migration from Türkiye involves permanent employment and will therefore lead to a sustained increase in migration to and from Saba in the future.

The calculation models for immigration have been updated in the light of recent observations and trends. This has resulted in a higher projected number of migrants arriving in Bonaire and Saba. The number of migrants arriving in St Eustatius has remained at around the same level as previously forecast. The higher number of migrants arriving in Bonaire is assumed to continue until 2035, after which net migration is assumed to move towards zero. For Saba and St Eustatius, too, net migration is assumed to decline gradually to zero from 2035 onwards. According to these assumptions, net migration is expected to be zero by 2055.

In 2025, 30 more people left Bonaire than was predicted in the previous forecast. That was 3 percent more than expected. 109 fewer people left Saba (53 percent less than the forecast) and 61 fewer left St Eustatius (36 percent less than the forecast). The new forecasts show more people emigrating from Bonaire and Saba. The reason for this is the expected increase in the number of migrants arriving: emigration consists largely of immigrants who leave again. For St Eustatius, expected emigration is around the same as in the previous forecast.

The assumptions for the likelihood of immigrants leaving the islands based on the length of stay have remained the same. According to these estimates, 89 percent of immigrants born in the European Netherlands and 70 percent of those born in Aruba, Curaçao or St Maarten will eventually leave the islands. Projections show that 63 percent of the remaining immigrants on Bonaire who were born outside the Kingdom of the Netherlands will leave. For Saba and St Eustatius, this figure is around 90 percent. An estimated 57 percent of people born in the Caribbean Netherlands who emigrate will eventually return to the Caribbean Netherlands.

Assumptions on mortality rate

In 2025, the total number of deaths in the Caribbean Netherlands was two lower than projected in the previous forecast. That was 1 percent lower than expected. The number of deaths in the years to come in the current forecast is also higher than in the previous forecast; this is because there will be more inhabitants under the current forecast. As in previous forecasts, it is assumed that mortality rates for residents of the Caribbean Netherlands will decrease at the same rate as they will among residents of the European Netherlands.

Assumptions on birth rate

The number of births on Bonaire in 2025 was three lower than expected (1 percent). In the current forecast, the projected number of births has been revised upwards for the medium-term. This is because Bonaire is projected to have a larger number of inhabitants aged around thirty due to higher immigration over the medium-term, and this will lead to a higher birth rate. On Saba, the number of births in 2025 was equal to last year's forecast. The forecast for the number of future births is slightly higher than last year’s forecast. This is because the number of immigrants on Saba has been revised upwards. On St Eustatius, there were three more births (9 percent more) than projected in 2025. The expected number of future births on St Eustatius has remained broadly unchanged.






Population forecast

Between 1 January 2011 and 1 January 2026, the population of the Caribbean Netherlands grew from 21.1 thousand to 33.2 thousand. That represents an increase of 58 percent, or 3.1 percent per year. The forecast predicts a total population of 42.5 thousand people by 2035. That represents an increase of 28 percent, or 2.8 percent per year. According to the forecast, population growth will come to an end in around 2050. By that time, the Caribbean Netherlands is expected to have 48 thousand inhabitants – an upward adjustment of more than 4 thousand compared to last year's forecast.

Since 2011, Bonaire has seen the strongest population growth of the three islands. The new forecast also projects the strongest growth for Bonaire between now and 2035, at 32 percent. This represents 3.2% per year (previous forecast: 2.6 percent per year). Population growth of 10 percent is expected on Saba by 2035 – the previous forecast had predicted growth of 1 percent. On St Eustatius, population growth of 3 percent is expected until 2035; in the previous forecast, the forecast was 1 percent, just as it was for Saba.

Current and expected population numbers per island according to current forecast
IslandPopulation (x 1,000)
202620352050
Bonaire27,636,641,9
Saba2,32,52,5
St Eustatius3,33,43,6

The new forecast projects a higher population for Bonaire in 2050 than the previous forecast: 3.6 thousand more people. This is because assumed immigration is higher. For St Eustatius, according to the new forecast the population in 2050 will be 100 higher than in the previous forecast. The population of Saba in 2050 is projected to be 400 higher.

The share of residents of the Caribbean Netherlands who were born there or on Aruba, Curaçao or St Maarten is expected to fall from 49 percent now to 44 percent in 2035. Of the current population, 14 percent were born in the European Netherlands and 36 percent were born elsewhere. The share of people born in the European Netherlands will remain unchanged, and the share of people born elsewhere is expected to increase to 42 percent in 2035.

According to the current forecast, the share of residents born in the Caribbean Netherlands or on Aruba, Curaçao or St Maarten will remain the same between 2035 and 2050. The proportion of people born in the European Netherlands will decrease slightly between 2035 and 2050, while the share of those born elsewhere will increase.

Compared to the 2025 forecast, the current projection is for a lower share of residents born in the Caribbean Netherlands or on Aruba, Curaçao or St Maarten. In the previous forecast, that share fell from 50 percent to 46 percent, while the current forecast shows a fall to 43 percent. This is because projected immigration to Bonaire has been revised upwards.

The population of the Caribbean Netherlands continues to age. Previous forecasts showed that the share of residents aged 65 and over would increase. This is also the case in the current forecast. At the start of 2026, 15 percent of the population of the Caribbean Netherlands was 65 years or older. By 2035, it is projected that 18 percent of the population will be over the age of 65; by 2050, this is projected to be 24 percent. This is 2 percentage points lower than the projection in the previous forecast.

Sources