Population forecast, Caribbean Netherlands 2025-2050

© CBS
Statistics Netherlands (CBS) has compiled a new population forecast for the special municipalities of the Caribbean Netherlands based on the most recent data. This paper outlines the main findings and the differences relative to the previous forecast from 2024.

The population of Bonaire is expected to grow from 26.6 thousand today to 34.2 thousand by the year 2035. Last year’s forecast was for 30.5 thousand inhabitants on Bonaire in 2035. In the case of St Eustatius, the population is 3.3 thousand today and is expected to remain the same until 2035 - last year’s forecast was 3.4 thousand in 2035. Saba had a population of 2.2 thousand at the beginning of 2025, and this is expected to remain at 2.2 thousand in 2035: in the previous forecast it was 2.3 thousand.

Assumptions on migration

In 2024, 364 more people came to live in Bonaire than was previously forecast. The number of people moving to Saba was 16 lower than previously forecast and on St Eustatius, it was 17 lower.

The calculation models for immigration have been updated to better reflect recent observations and trends. This has resulted in a higher projected number of immigrants on Bonaire and a lower number on Saba. The number of immigrants on St Eustatius was also slightly lower than previously forecast. The higher number of immigrants on Bonaire is assumed to continue until 2035, after which net migration is assumed to move toward zero. On Saba and St Eustatius, too, net migration is assumed to gradually decline to zero from 2035 onwards. Net migration is projected to reach zero in 2055.

In 2024, 112 more people left Bonaire than was previously forecast. There were 127 fewer people who left Saba and 32 fewer who left St Eustatius. Future forecasts show more people emigrating from Bonaire and fewer emigrating from Saba and St Eustatius. The reason for this is the expected increase (on Bonaire) and decrease (on Saba and St Eustatius) in the number of immigrants, combined with the fact that emigration is largely made up of departing immigrants.

The assumptions for the likelihood of immigrants leaving the islands based on the length of stay have remained the same. According to these estimates, 89 percent of immigrants born in the European Netherlands and 70 percent of those born in Aruba, Curaçao or St Maarten will eventually leave the islands one day. Projections show that 63 percent of the remaining immigrants on Bonaire who were born outside the Kingdom of the Netherlands will leave one day. For Saba and St Eustatius, this figure is around 90 percent. An estimated 57 percent of emigrants born in the Caribbean Netherlands will eventually return.

Assumptions on mortality

In 2024, the total number of deaths in the Caribbean Netherlands was 13 lower than projected in the previous forecast. The number of deaths in the years to come in the current forecast is also higher than in the previous forecast; this is because there will be more inhabitants under the current forecast. As in previous forecasts, it is assumed that mortality rates for residents of the Caribbean Netherlands will decrease at the same rate as they will among residents of the European Netherlands.

Assumptions on births

The number of births on Bonaire in 2024 was 20 lower than expected. In the current forecast, the projected number of births has been revised upwards for the medium-term. This is because Bonaire is projected to have a larger number of inhabitants aged around thirty due to higher immigration over the medium-term, and this will lead to a higher birth rate. On Saba, the number of births in 2024 was three lower than in last year's forecast. The forecast for the number of future births after 2030 is slightly lower than last year. This is because the number of immigrants on Saba has been revised downwards. On St Eustatius, there were eight more births than projected in 2024. The expected number of future births on St Eustatius has remained broadly unchanged.

Population forecast

Between 1 January 2011 and 1 January 2025, the population of the Caribbean Netherlands rose from 21.1 thousand to 32 thousand. The forecast projects a population of 39.7 thousand in 2035. According to the forecast, the population growth will come to a halt around 2050. By that time, the Caribbean Netherlands is expected to have 43.9 thousand inhabitants – an upward adjustment of more than 5 thousand compared to last year's forecast.

Since 2011, Bonaire has seen the strongest population growth of the three islands. The new forecast also projects the strongest growth for Bonaire between now and 2035: 29 percent. Last year’s forecast projected 16 percent growth on Bonaire for the period 2025 to 2035. The population of Saba and St Eustatius is projected to grow by 1 percent by 2035. The previous forecast projected growth of 10 percent on Saba and 5 percent on St Eustatius for the period 2025 to 2035.

Current and expected population numbers per island according to current forecast
IslandPopulation (x 1,000)
202520352050
Bonaire26,634,238,3
Saba2,22,22,1
St Eustatius3,33,33,5

The new forecast projects a higher population for Bonaire in 2050 than the previous forecast: 5.5 thousand more people. This is because assumed immigration is higher. For St Eustatius, according to the new forecast the population in 2050 will be about 100 lower than in the previous forecast. The population of Saba in 2050 is projected to be about 200 lower.



The share of residents of the Caribbean Netherlands who were born there or on Aruba, Curaçao or St Maarten is expected to fall from 50 percent in 2025 to 46 percent in 2035. Of the current population, 15 percent were born in the European Netherlands and 35 percent were born elsewhere. The share of those born in the European Netherlands will remain unchanged, and the proportion of people born elsewhere is expected to increase to 39 percent in 2035.

According to the current forecast, the share of residents born in the Caribbean Netherlands or on Aruba, Curaçao or St Maarten will remain the same between 2035 and 2050. The proportion of people born in the European Netherlands will decrease slightly between 2035 and 2050, while the share of those born elsewhere will increase.

Compared to the 2024 forecast, the current projection is for a lower share of residents born in the Caribbean Netherlands or on Aruba, Curaçao or St Maarten. In the previous forecast, that share remained fairly constant at 50 percent, while the current forecast shows a decrease to 46 percent. This is because projected immigration to Bonaire has been revised upwards.

The population of the Caribbean Netherlands continues to age. Previous forecasts showed that the share of residents aged 65 and over would start to increase. This is also the case in the current forecast. At the start of 2025, 15 percent of the population of the Caribbean Netherlands were 65 years or older. By 2035, it is projected that 19 percent of the population will be over the age of 65; by 2050, this is projected to be 25 percent. This is slightly below the projection in the previous forecast.

Sources