Relationships between inflation indicators

14/03/2018 09:15
In 2017, Statistic Netherlands released the Price Dashboard, consisting of seventeen indicators related to inflation. We investigated the temporal relationships between the inflation indicators, based on historical time series.
We found that most of the indicators are related to other indicators within the dashboard, but only to a certain extent. There is very little correlation between the price of gold and AEX share prices with other indicators. The highest correlations were found between CPI energy and import price of crude oil and between wages and CPI services. We identified which indicators are leading and lagging for other indicators and determined the associated lag. Further we found that predicting CPI turning points using other indicators from the dashboard as leading indicator could be possible, though with varying lead times and precision.