Economic growth of 0.5 percent in Q4 2025

According to the second estimate conducted by Statistics Netherlands (CBS), gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 0.5 percent in Q4 2025 relative to Q3 2025. According to the first estimate published on 30 January, growth was also 0.5 percent. The second GDP estimate is always published around 85 days after the end of each quarter.

The trade balance has been adjusted upwards, but public consumption has been adjusted downwards. The overall picture has hardly changed. GDP in the fourth quarter grew mainly because the trade balance improved.

Second estimate

The second estimate is conducted 85 days after the end of the quarter. The first estimate is calculated 30 days after the end of the quarter, and is based on the most recent data available at that point. Following the first estimate, new information about the state of the Dutch economy continues to pour in, including data on the construction sector, business services, accommodation and food services, the public sector, health and well-being and the financial sector. These figures are added and new calculations are performed.

On average, over the five-year period of 2021-2025, the difference between the final estimate and the first estimate was 0.2 percentage points in absolute terms, but ranged between -0.4 and 0.7 percentage points, in 2024 and 2021 respectively.

Quarter-on-quarter growth adjustment

With each new estimate, CBS also recalculates the seasonally adjusted series for previously published quarters. However, this did not lead to any adjustment of GDP growth for the first three quarters of 2025.

Growth compared to the fourth quarter of 2024

Year on year, GDP grew by 1.8 percent in Q4 2025. According to the first estimate, too, growth was 1.8 percent, so the overall picture remains unchanged. The increase in the trade balance, household consumption and public consumption contributed positively to growth.

At the same time as the second calculation for Q4, the first three quarters of the year are also updated. This year, the quarterly figures for 2024 were also updated in order to ensure alignment with new source data from the government. As a result, year-on-year growth for the first three quarters of 2025 and Q4 2024 has been adjusted downwards by 0.1 percentage points.

Dutch economy grew by 1.8 percent in 2025

Economic growth in 2025 was 1.8 percent. In the first estimate published on 30 January, it was 1.9 percent. The overall picture has not changed. Household consumption, public consumption and trade balance contributed most to growth in 2025.

22 thousand new jobs

The second estimate shows that the number of people in employment or self-employment increased by 22 thousand in Q4 2025 compared to Q3 2025. According to the first estimate, the increase was 21 thousand jobs.

The second estimate for Q4 2025 suggests a year-on-year increase in the number of people in employment or self-employment of 41 thousand. That was 36 thousand according to the first estimate.

Jobs figures are adjusted when additional information becomes available. Overall, the number of people in employment and self-employment increased by 67 thousand on average in 2025.