More investment expected in 2026, profitability down

Construction workers on a rooftop
© ANP / Berlinda van Dam
Business owners expect to invest more in 2026 than they are investing this year. However, Q3 2025 saw profitability decline and business confidence remains negative overall. This is reported by Statistics Netherlands (CBS), the Dutch Chamber of Commerce (KvK), the Economic Institute for Construction and Housing (EIB), the Dutch Organisation for Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises (MKB-Nederland) and the Dutch Employers’ Organisation (VNO-NCW) on the basis of the Netherlands Business Survey.

More businesses expecting to increase their investment in 2026 outnumber those expecting to invest less (a net figure of over 3 percent). Businesses in the real estate sector are the most likely to expect to invest more: 25 percent of them do, on balance. Businesses in nine sectors expect to invest more; those in the remaining three sectors expect to invest less. In culture, sports and recreation and in retail, businesses now expect to invest more, whereas last year they expected a decrease in investment. In agriculture, forestry and fishing, accommodation and food services and information and communication, businesses expect to invest less in 2026.

Profitability lower in Q3 2025

At the beginning of Q4 2025, businesses reporting a fall in profitability in the previous quarter outnumbered those reporting an increase; the net figure was therefore negative. In eight of the twelve sectors, more businesses are negative about profitability than positive. The net figure is almost the same as last year, because businesses in the construction sector are more positive about profitability. Other than that, sentiment has only improved somewhat in the wholesale trade, manufacturing and real estate sectors. In the car trade and repair sector, businesses were the most negative about profitability, with a net figure of -21 percent.

Business confidence remains negative

Business confidence was -4.0 overall in Q4 2025, remaining virtually unchanged from Q3 2025. But businesses are more negative about the economic climate in the previous quarter than they are about the next quarter. Business confidence has been consistently negative since early 2022, and currently stands at around the average level since 2012 (-4.0).

Business confidence is only positive in information and communication sector

The only sector in which business confidence is positive is the information and communication sector. In all other sectors, the confidence indicator is negative, and in most sectors it is slightly lower  than it was last quarter. The real estate activities sector saw the sharpest decline in sentiment. The business services sector also saw a sharp drop, and the net figure changed from positive to negative. Confidence improved by the most in the accommodation and food services sector, but remains negative overall. Businesses in agriculture, forestry and fishing are the most negative.

Labour shortage remains the main obstacle for businesses

At the beginning of Q4 2025, 33 percent of business owners saw a shortage of labour as the largest obstacle for their business operations. This has been the most frequently reported issue for businesses ever since Q3 2021. A total of 22 percent said weak demand was the main problem for their business, and over 10 percent of business owners mentioned financial limitations. Over 33 percent reported experiencing no obstacles at all.

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