Economic picture deteriorates further

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© CBS
The economic picture was more negative in July than it was in June, according to the CBS Business Cycle Tracer. In the Tracer for July, 12 out of the 13 indicators were below their long-term trend.

The CBS Business Cycle Tracer is a tool used to monitor the state of the Dutch economy. It provides an overall macroeconomic picture of the past month or quarter, based on all figures published by CBS. This picture will still vary between households, enterprises or regions, however.

Business Cycle Tracer indicator (unweighted average of the indicators, excluding GDP, in the CBS Business Cycle Tracer)
YearMonthcycle (distance to the long-term trend (=0))
2021August0.53
2021September0.6
2021October0.69
2021November0.7
2021December0.73
2022January0.78
2022February0.77
2022March0.79
2022April0.84
2022May0.83
2022June0.86
2022July0.9
2022August0.89
2022September0.88
2022October0.86
2022November0.81
2022December0.77
2023January0.7
2023February0.65
2023March0.61
2023April0.5
2023May0.42
2023June0.32
2023July0.16
2023August0.05
2023September-0.07
2023October-0.2
2023November-0.29
2023December-0.37
2024January-0.45
2024February-0.49
2024March-0.52
2024April-0.57
2024May-0.57
2024June-0.57
2024July-0.6
2024August-0.58
2024September-0.56
2024October-0.56
2024November-0.52
2024December-0.5
2025January-0.54
2025February-0.54
2025March-0.58
2025April-0.67
2025May-0.7
2025June-0.74
2025July-0.82

Consumers less negative, producers almost equally negative

Consumers were less negative in July. Producers were almost as negative in July as they were in June. Consumer and producer confidence were below the long-term average for the past twenty years.

Consumer and producer confidence (seasonally adjusted)
YearMonthConsumer confidence (average of the component questions)Producer confidence (average of the component questions)
2021August-67.1
2021September-59.1
2021October-1010.4
2021November-1910.1
2021December-257.3
2022January-286.5
2022February-305.8
2022March-395.7
2022April-487.2
2022May-475.8
2022June-504.2
2022July -515.3
2022August-542.4
2022September-591.2
2022October-590.9
2022November-571.1
2022December-521
2023January-491.1
2023February-440.9
2023March-390.9
2023April-37-0.3
2023May-38-1.7
2023June-39-2.7
2023July-39-2.7
2023August-40-4.6
2023September-39-3.9
2023October-38-3.7
2023November-33-2.6
2023December-29-5.7
2014January-28-4.4
2014February-27-4.2
2014March-22-4.8
2014April-21-3.6
2014May-22-2.8
2014June-23-2.4
2014July-24-2.7
2014August-24-1.9
2014September-21-1.7
2014October-22-3.2
2014November-25-1.8
2014December-26-1.6
2025January-28-1.6
2025February-32-1.2
2025March-34-1.5
2025April-37-3.3
2025May-37-3.9
2025June-36-5
2025July-32-4.9

Household consumption and exports up, investment down

Household spending was 1.1 percent higher in May 2025 than it was in May 2024, adjusted for price changes and the shopping-day pattern. Households spent more on services and goods.

In May 2025, the total volume of goods exported (adjusted for the number of working days) was up by 0.5 percent year on year. Export volumes were higher for chemical products and machinery.

In May 2025, the volume of investment in tangible fixed assets was down by 4.0 percent year on year. This was mainly due to less investment in buildings and other road transport (delivery vehicles and so on).

Manufacturing output 0.8 percent higher in May

In May 2025, the calendar-adjusted output of the Dutch manufacturing sector was 0.8 percent higher than it was in May 2024. After adjustment for seasonal and calendar effects, manufacturing output rose by 0.5 percent in May relative to April.

Fewer bankruptcies in June

Adjusted for the number of court session days, there were 44 fewer bankruptcies in June than in May.

House prices up by over 9 percent in June

In June, the average price of an owner-occupied dwelling (excluding newbuild homes) was 9.3 percent higher year on year and 0.9 percent higher relative to May.

Fewer hours worked, less vacancies, unemployment remained almost unchanged

Unemployment stood at 386 thousand in June 2025. This is 3.8 percent of the labour force, meaning that the unemployment rate was the same as in the previous two months. The number of unemployed people fell by an average of 3 thousand per month over the past three months.

In Q2 2025, employees and self-employed persons worked over 3.7 billion hours in total. Adjusted for seasonal effects, that was 0.3 percent less than the previous quarter.

The number of vacancies decreased by around 7 thousand to nearly 389 thousand in the second quarter of 2025.

In Q1 2025, the turnover of temporary employment and job placement agencies was 1.5 percent lower than in Q1 2024.

Economic growth of 0.1 percent in Q2 2025

According to the first estimate by Statistics Netherlands (CBS), gross domestic product (GDP) rose by 0.1 percent in Q2 2025, relative to the previous quarter. GDP growth in Q2 2025 was mainly attributable to investments and public consumption.

GDP (volume), seasonally adjusted
YearQuarterIndex (2021=100)
2021Quarter 3101.8
2021Quarter 4101.9
2022Quarter 1103.2
2022Quarter 2105.6
2022Quarter 3105.8
2022Quarter 4105.5
2023Quarter 1104.9
2023Quarter 2104.5
2023Quarter 3104
2023Quarter 4104.2
2024Quarter 1104.2
2024Quarter 2105.3
2024Quarter 3106
2024Quarter 4106.5
2025Quarter 1106.8
2025Quarter 2106.9