Economic picture deteriorates again

The Business Cycle Tracer is a tool for monitoring the state of the Dutch economy. It provides an overall macroeconomic picture of the past month or quarter, based on all the figures published by CBS. This picture will still vary between households, enterprises or regions, however.

Consumer and producer confidence less negative

In February 2024, Dutch consumers were less negative than in the previous month. However, confidence was still far below the long-term average over the past two decades. Producers were also less negative than in January, with confidence remaining below the 20-year average as well.

Household consumption up, exports and investments down

Households spent 0.3 percent more in December 2023 year on year (adjusted for price changes and shopping-day pattern). They spent more on services than on goods.

In December 2023, the total volume of goods exported (adjusted for the number of working days) was down by 1.6 percent year on year. Export volumes of petroleum products and food, beverages and tobacco in particular were lower.

Investment volume for tangible fixed assets was down by 8.1 percent year on year in December 2023. This is mainly due to lower investment in buildings, aircraft, passenger cars and machinery.

Manufacturing output down by over 3 percent in December

In December 2023, the average daily output of the Dutch manufacturing industry was 3.3 percent lower than in December 2022. Output also contracted year on year in the preceding months of 2023. Manufacturing output rose by 6.8 percent from November to December.

Fewer bankruptcies in January

Adjusted for the number of court session days, there were 24 fewer bankruptcies in January 2024 than in December 2023, a decrease of 6 percent. However, there has been an upward trend in the number of bankruptcies for nearly two years.

House prices up by nearly 2 percent in January

In January 2024, the average price of an existing owner-occupied home was 1.8 percent higher than one year previously. The monthly rise for January was 1.2 percent relative to December 2023.

Fewer vacancies, fewer unemployed, more hours worked

In Q4 2023, the number of hours worked fell by 0.3 percent on the previous quarter after adjustment for seasonal effects. Total hours worked by employees and self-employed people over Q4 2023 amounted to just over 3.6 billion.

For the sixth consecutive quarter, there were fewer unfilled vacancies than in the previous quarter. At the end of Q4, there were 410 thousand unfilled vacancies, 5 thousand fewer than at the end of Q3.

In January, 368 thousand people were unemployed. That amounts to 3.6 percent of the total labour force. Unemployment increased by an average of 2 thousand per month over the past three months.

In Q3 2023, turnover at temporary employment and job placement agencies rose by 0.5 percent relative to the previous quarter.

Economic growth of 0.3 percent in Q4 2023

According to the first quarterly estimate based on the data currently available, gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 0.3 percent in Q4 2023 relative to the previous quarter. Following three consecutive quarters of GDP decline, the growth in Q4 can mainly be attributed to household consumption.