Manufacturers less negative in January

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© ANP / Remko de Waal
According to Statistics Netherlands (CBS), Dutch manufacturers were less negative in January than one month previously. Producer confidence went up from -5.7 in December 2023 to -4.4 in January 2024. Manufacturers were particularly less negative about the order positions.

In January, producer confidence was below the long-term average of -1.3. It reached an all-time high (10.4) in October 2021 and an all-time low (-31.5) in April 2020.

As of this month, a number of changes have been made to producer confidence. Producer confidence and the component indicators are no longer corrected for insufficient objective assessment (bias) by the producer. This causes a level shift (decrease) of the entire series. In addition, the figures have been recalculated from January 2012 using a different weighting method. The seasonal adjustment method has also been improved.

Producer confidence manufacturing industry (seasonally adjusted)
yearmonthbalance (average of the component questions)
2020February1
2020March-2.6
2020April-31.5
2020May-28.1
2020June-18.7
2020July-11.8
2020August-7.8
2020September-7
2020October-7.7
2020November-6.4
2020December-3.2
2021January-1.8
2021February-2.6
2021March0.6
2021April3.6
2021May5.6
2021June7.8
2021July9.2
2021August7.1
2021September9.1
2021October10.4
2021November10.1
2021December7.3
2022January6.5
2022February5.8
2022March5.7
2022April7.2
2022May5.8
2022June4.2
2022July5.3
2022August2.4
2022September1.2
2022October0.9
2022November1.1
2022December1
2023January1.1
2023February0.9
2023March0.9
2023April -0.3
2023May-1.7
2023June-2.7
2023July-2.7
2023August-4.6
2023September-3.9
2023Oktober-3.7
2023November-2.6
2023December-5.7
2024January-4.4

Mainly less negative on order positions

Manufacturers were mainly less negative about the order positions. They were also less negative about the current stocks of finished products. Finally, manufacturers were more positive about the expected output in the next three months.

One component indicator was positive. Manufacturers anticipating output to increase over the next three months outnumber those expecting a decrease.

Two component indicators were negative. More manufacturers consider their order position to be weak rather than strong, given the time of year. More manufacturers define their current stock of finished products as large rather than small.

Producer confidence: component indicators (seasonally adjusted)
 January 2024 (balance % positive answers and % negative answers)December 2023 (balance % positive answers and % negative answers)
Producer confidence-4.4-5.7
Expected output1.81.1
Assessment of stocks of finished products-6.4-6.9
Assessment of order-book levels-8.5-11.5

Producer confidence most positive in the electrotechnical and machinery industry

Producer confidence in the electrical and machinery industry improved most in January. Manufacturers in this industry were mainly more positive about their order position and expected output. They were also the most positive among the industry's main branches.

Producer confidence by sector (seasonally adjusted)
 January 2024 (average of the component questions)December 023 (average of the component questions)
Electrotechnical products and machinery6.2-0.7
Food, beverages, tobacco-4.2-4.5
Textiles, clothes, leather-5.3-3.4
Petroleum and chemicals-8.1-8.7
Paper and printing-11.2-10.9
Metal-12.1-10
Transport equipment-13.1-7.4
Timber and building materials-20.6-19

Manufacturing output 10 percent down in November

Three weeks ago, CBS reported that in November 2023, the average daily output of the Dutch manufacturing industry was 10.0 percent lower than it was in November 2022. Year-on-year output contracted as well in the previous months of 2023. Relative to October, output fell by 0.8 percent in November.