Economic contraction 0.2 percent in Q3 2023

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© ANP / Erik van 't Woud
According to the first quarterly estimate conducted by Statistics Netherlands (CBS), the volume of gross domestic product (GDP) fell by 0.2 percent in Q3 2023 relative to the previous quarter. This is the third consecutive quarter with contraction. In Q1 and Q2 2023, GDP fell by 0.5 and 0.4 percent respectively. The contraction in Q3 can mainly be attributed to declining investments in fixed assets and a decline in inventory changes.

GDP (volume), seasonally adjusted
YearQuarterIndex (2015=100)
2017Quarter 1104
2017Quarter 2104.9
2017Quarter 3105.6
2017Quarter 4106.4
2018Quarter 1106.9
2018Quarter 2107.6
2018Quarter 3107.8
2018Quarter 4108.3
2019Quarter 1109.2
2019Quarter 2109.5
2019Quarter 3109.7
2019Quarter 4110.4
2020Quarter 1108.9
2020Quarter 299.8
2020Quarter 3106.2
2020Quarter 4106.8
2021Quarter 1108.1
2021Quarter 2111.4
2021Quarter 3113.7
2021Quarter 4114.5
2022Quarter 1115.1
2022Quarter 2117.1
2022Quarter 3117.2
2022Quarter 4118.1
2023Quarter 1117.5
2023Quarter 2117
2023Quarter 3116.8

All figures in this news release are volume figures. These have been adjusted for price changes.

Public consumption up, other expenditures down

Investments in fixed assets fell by 1.8 percent in Q3 2023 compared to Q2 2023. This is partly due to fewer investments in transport equipment, machinery and buildings. Furthermore, there was a withdrawal of inventory, versus an accumulation of inventory in Q2. Household consumption remained the same, while public consumption increased by 0.6 percent.

Exports of goods and services fell by 1.6 percent compared to Q2 2023. Exports of both goods and services fell. Imports of goods and services fell more rapidly at 2.3 percent. The trade balance contributed positively to economic development in Q3.

Expenditure (volume)
 2023-III (quarter-on-quarter % change)2023-II (quarter-on-quarter % change)
Government consumption0.60.8
Household consumption0-1.7
Fixed capital formation-1.80.3

Energy sector and sector culture, sports, recreation and other services contribute most to contraction

In just under half of all sectors, value added (production minus intermediate consumption of energy, materials and services) declined in Q3 2023 relative to Q2. The decline was strongest among energy companies and in culture, sports, recreation and other services.

Value added by sector (volume)
 2023-III (quarter-on-quarter % change)2023-II (quarter-on-quarter % change)
Mining and quarrying11.5-10.3
Water supply and waste management0.7-0.5
Financial institutions0.70.9
Real estate activities0.70
Agriculture, forestry and fishing0.3-4.5
Public services, education and care0.30.7
Trade, transportation, accommodation and food serving-0.1-2
Business services-0.11.1
Information and communication-0.4-0.8
Culture, recreation, other services-2.55.7
Electricity and gas supply-7.48.5

GDP up by 0.1 percent in the European Union

Just as in the Netherlands, Germany’s GDP fell in Q3 (-0.1 percent). In Belgium and France, the economy grew by 0.5 and 0.1 percent respectively in Q3 2023 relative to the previous quarter. GDP rose by 0.1 percent in the European Union (EU)in Q3. Furthermore, economic growth came to a standstill in the UK. Relative to Q4 2019, i.e. before the coronavirus pandemic, Dutch economic recovery has been stronger than in neighbouring countries and the EU average, although the gap has become narrower.

GDP (seasonally and calendar adjusted), international
   Netherlands (Q4 2019 = 100)Belgium (Q4 2019 = 100)EU27 (Q4 2019 = 100)France (Q4 2019 = 100)UK (Q4 2019 = 100)Germany (Q4 2019 = 100)
2019Quarter 4100100100100100100
2020Quarter 198.797.29794.797.398.2
2020Quarter 290.486.186.482.277.589.2
2020Quarter 396.296.396.196.790.597.1
2020Quarter 496.895.996.39691.797.9
2021Quarter 19897.696.99690.896.6
2021Quarter 210199.598.996.997.598.8
2021Quarter 3103101.7100.899.999.199.5
2021Quarter 4103.8102.5101.5100.3100.799.5
2022Quarter 1104.3102.6102.3100.2101.2100.5
2022Quarter 2106.1103.3103100.6101.3100.3
2022Quarter 3106.2103.6103.4101.1101.2100.7
2022Quarter 4107103.8103.3101.1101.3100.3
2023Quarter 1106.5104.2103.4101.2101.7100.3
2023Quarter 2106104.5103.4101.8101.8100.4
2023Quarter 3105.8105.1103.5101.8101.8100.3

The rest of this news release deals with economic development relative to Q3 2022.

GDP 0.6 percent down on Q3 2022

Year on year, GDP contracted by 0.6 percent in Q3 2023. The contraction was mainly related to lower exports of goods and services, natural gas inventory and household consumption.

First estimate

The first estimate is published 45 days after the end of a quarter and is conducted based on information available at that moment. It provides an initial picture of the state of the Dutch economy. After the first estimate, new data continue to pour in which are used to make new calculations. The second estimate on economic growth will be released on Friday 22 December. In absolute terms, the adjustment of the second estimate relative to the first estimate was nearly 0.1 percentage point on average over the five-year period 2018-2022, with the two extremes ranging between -0.3 and 0.7 percentage point, both occurring in 2021.

With each new estimate, CBS also determines the new seasonally adjusted figures on previously published quarters. The growth figures for Q1 and Q2 2023, among others, have been adjusted: for Q1 from -0.4 to -0.5 percent and for Q2 from -0.2 to -0.4 percent.