Economic contraction 0.2 percent in Q2 2023

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© Hollandse Hoogte / Ramon van Flymen
According to the second estimate conducted by Statistics Netherlands (CBS), gross domestic product (GDP) fell by 0.2 percent in Q2 2023 relative to Q1 2023. In the first estimate, which was published on 16 August, contraction amounted to 0.3 percent. The second GDP estimate is published 85 days after the end of each quarter.

The contraction of the economy was slightly smaller than in the first estimate. The trade balance (exports minus imports) in particular has been adjusted upwards. However, investments have been adjusted downwards. The overall picture has not changed. The contraction in the second quarter can mainly be attributed to a decline in the trade balance and household consumption.

GDP (volume), seasonally adjusted
YearQuarterIndex (2015=100)
2016Quarter 1101.2
2016Quarter 2101.4
2016Quarter 3102.6
2016Quarter 4103.4
2017Quarter 1104
2017Quarter 2104.9
2017Quarter 3105.6
2017Quarter 4106.4
2018Quarter 1106.9
2018Quarter 2107.6
2018Quarter 3107.8
2018Quarter 4108.3
2019Quarter 1109.2
2019Quarter 2109.5
2019Quarter 3109.7
2019Quarter 4110.4
2020Quarter 1108.9
2020Quarter 299.8
2020Quarter 3106.2
2020Quarter 4106.8
2021Quarter 1108.2
2021Quarter 2111.5
2021Quarter 3113.6
2021Quarter 4114.5
2022Quarter 1115.1
2022Quarter 2117.2
2022Quarter 3117
2022Quarter 4118
2023Quarter 1117.5
2023Quarter 2117.3

Second estimate

The second estimate is conducted 85 days after the end of the quarter. The first estimate, which is calculated 45 days after the end of the quarter, is based on the most recent data available at that moment. After the first estimate, more new information about the state of the Dutch economy keeps pouring in, e.g. data about the sectors construction business services, hotels and restaurants, government care and the financial sector. These data are subsequently incorporated into new calculations.

In absolute terms, the adjustment in the second estimate relative to the first estimate has averaged nearly 0.1 percentage points over the past five years (2018-2022), with the two extremes -0.3 and 0.7 percentage points, both occurring in 2021.

Quarter-on-quarter growth adjustment

With each new estimate, CBS also recalculates the seasonally adjusted series of previously published quarters. This has not led to an adjustment of GDP growth in the previous quarters.

Growth relative to Q2 2022

Year on year, GDP decreased by 0.2 percent in Q2 2023. In the first estimate, the decrease amounted to 0.3 percent. The upward adjustment is caused by new figures on manufacturing and business services.

The overall picture has not changed. The contraction in the second quarter of 2023 is mainly because the trade balance was smaller than a year earlier.

GDP (volume)
YearQuarterIndex (year-on-year % change)
2016Quarter 12.1
2016Quarter 22.3
2016Quarter 32.1
2016Quarter 42.2
2017Quarter 13.2
2017Quarter 23
2017Quarter 32.8
2017Quarter 42.6
2018Quarter 12.6
2018Quarter 22.7
2018Quarter 32.2
2018Quarter 41.9
2019Quarter 11.8
2019Quarter 21.9
2019Quarter 32.1
2019Quarter 42
2020Quarter 1-0.3
2020Quarter 2-8.8
2020Quarter 3-3.3
2020Quarter 4-2.9
2021Quarter 1-1.1
2021Quarter 211.8
2021Quarter 36.9
2021Quarter 47.4
2022Quarter 16.4
2022Quarter 25.2
2022Quarter 33
2022Quarter 42.9
2023Quarter 11.9
2023Quarter 2-0.2

Nine thousand more jobs

The second estimate shows that the number of employee and self-employed jobs increased by 9 thousand in Q2 2023 compared to Q1 2023. The first estimate suggested an increase of 7 thousand jobs.

The second estimate for Q2 2023 further suggests a year-on-year increase of 185 thousand employee and self-employed jobs, versus 182 thousand according to the first estimate.
Employment figures are adjusted when additional information becomes available.

Total jobs (seasonally adjusted)
   change (quarter-on-quarter change (1,000))
2016Quarter 113
2016Quarter 254
2016Quarter 344
2016Quarter 456
2017Quarter 163
2017Quarter 267
2017Quarter 377
2017Quarter 476
2018Quarter 177
2018Quarter 264
2018Quarter 367
2018Quarter 457
2019Quarter 164
2019Quarter 237
2019Quarter 336
2019Quarter 450
2020Quarter 18
2020Quarter 2-304
2020Quarter 3173
2020Quarter 42
2021Quarter 15
2021Quarter 2142
2021Quarter 3170
2021Quarter 470
2022Quarter 1125
2022Quarter 2111
2022Quarter 373
2022Quarter 470
2023Quarter 132
2023Quarter 29