Producer confidence up slightly again

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According to Statistics Netherlands (CBS), confidence among Dutch manufacturers is up again slightly in January 2023. Producer confidence has increased from 3.3 in December to 3.6 in January. This is mainly due to the fact that manufacturers are more positive about their order positions.

Producer confidence has exceeded the long-term average of 1.2 for years. It reached an all-time high (12.7) in November 2021 and an all-time low (-28.7) in April 2020.

Producer confidence manufacturing industry (seasonally adjusted)
yearmonthbalance (average of the component questions)
2019February6.3
2019March6.1
2019April6.7
2019May4.7
2019Juni3.3
2019Juli 3.9
2019August3.9
2019September3.3
2019October3.6
2019November2.8
2019December2.9
2020January2.5
2020February3.7
2020March0.2
2020April-28.7
2020May-25.1
2020June-15.1
2020July-8.7
2020August-5.4
2020September-4.8
2020October-5.6
2020November-3.8
2020December-0.4
2021January0.6
2021February0.1
2021March3.4
2021April6.5
2021May8.8
2021June11.5
2021July12.3
2021August9.6
2021September11.1
2021October12.3
2021November12.7
2021December10.2
2022January9
2022February8.5
2022March8.7
2022April10.8
2022May9.9
2022June8.1
2022July8.4
2022August4.6
2022September2.6
2022October2.5
2022November3
2022December3.3
2023January3.6

Opinion about order positions has improved

Manufacturers are somewhat more positive about their order positions and less negative about their current stocks. They are almost as positive about future output as they were a month earlier.

Two component indicators of producer confidence are positive. The majority of manufacturers consider their order position to be strong rather than weak, given the time of year. Furthermore, manufacturers anticipating output to increase over the next three months outnumber those expecting a decrease.

However, there was one negative component: more manufacturers define their current stock of finished products as too large rather than too small.

Confidence up in half of industries

In January, producer confidence is higher than in the previous month in half of the manufacturing industries. Just as in the previous months, confidence is highest in the electrotechnical and machinery industries.

Producer confidence by sector (seasonally adjusted)
 January 2023 (average of the component questions) December 2022 (average of the component questions)
Electrotechnical products and machinery16.118
Transport equipment14.116
Timber and building materials5.8-0.4
Textiles, clothes, leather4.81.8
Metal4.53
Food, beverages, tobacco-1.6-0.7
Paper and printing-3.1-7.7
Petroleum-6-4.4

Manufacturing output down by a fraction in November

In November 2022, the average daily output of the Dutch manufacturing industry was 0.2 percent lower than in November 2021. It was the first year-on-year contraction since March 2021. After seasonal adjustments, a 2.0-percent decline is seen in manufacturing output from October to November.

Producer confidence also improving in Germany

Germany is an important market for the Dutch manufacturing industry. In January, German entrepreneurs again showed improved confidence, according to the Business Climate Index of the IFO Institute. They were more positive about their current situation and less pessimistic about the future situation. The average daily output generated by the German manufacturing industry was up by 0.5 percent year on year in November, as reported by Destatis.