Producer confidence slightly up again

© CBS / Alrik Swagerman
According to Statistics Netherlands (CBS), confidence among Dutch manufacturers has improved in December 2022. Producer confidence has increased from 3.0 in November to 3.3 in December. This is due to the fact that manufacturers are more positive about their future output.

Producer confidence is still higher than the long-term average of 1.1. It reached an all-time high (12.7) in November 2021 and an all-time low (-28.7) in April 2020.

Producer confidence manufacturing industry (seasonally adjusted)
yearmonthbalance (average of the component questions)
2019January5.8
2019February6.3
2019March6.1
2019April6.7
2019May4.7
2019Juni3.3
2019Juli 3.9
2019August3.9
2019September3.3
2019October3.6
2019November2.8
2019December2.9
2020January2.5
2020February3.7
2020March0.2
2020April-28.7
2020May-25.1
2020June-15.1
2020July-8.7
2020August-5.4
2020September-4.8
2020October-5.6
2020November-3.8
2020December-0.4
2021January0.6
2021February0.1
2021March3.4
2021April6.5
2021May8.8
2021June11.5
2021July12.3
2021August9.6
2021September11.1
2021October12.3
2021November12.7
2021December10.2
2022January9
2022February8.5
2022March8.7
2022April10.8
2022May9.9
2022June8.1
2022July8.4
2022August4.6
2022September2.6
2022October2.5
2022November3
2022December3.3

Opinion about future output has improved

Manufacturers are more positive about their output in the next three months. However, they are less positive about their order positions and more negative about their current stocks.

Two component indicators of producer confidence are positive. The majority of manufacturers consider their order position to be strong rather than weak, given the time of year. Furthermore, manufacturers anticipating output to increase over the next three months outnumber those expecting a decrease.

However, there was one negative component: more manufacturers define their current stock of finished products as too large rather than too small.

Confidence up in two thirds of industries

In December, producer confidence is higher than in the previous month in around two thirds of the manufacturing industries. Just as in the previous months, confidence is highest in the electrotechnical and machinery industries.

Producer confidence by sector (seasonally adjusted)
  December 2022 (average of the component questions) November 2022 (average of the component questions)
Electrotechnical products and machinery1815.1
Transport equipment1614.9
Metal36.3
Textiles, clothes, leather1.811.1
Timber and building materials-0.4-2.2
Food, beverages, tobacco-0.7-0.9
Petroleum-4.4-5.8
Paper and printing-7.7-6

Manufacturing output over 3 percent up in October

In October 2022, the average daily output generated by the Dutch manufacturing industry was up by 3.3 percent on October 2021. Growth was lower compared to the preceding one and a half years.

Producer confidence in Germany also improved

Germany is an important market for the Dutch manufacturing industry. In December, German producer confidence according to the Business Climate Index of the IFO Institute rose. Companies were less pessimistic about the future. They also assessed their current situation as more positive. In October, the average daily output generated by the German manufacturing industry increased by almost 1 percent year on year, as reported by Destatis.