Economic outlook less positive
The Business Cycle Tracer is a tool to monitor the state and the cycle of the Dutch economy. It presents a coherent macroeconomic picture of the past month or quarter, based on all the figures published by CBS. However, it does not apply equally to all households, enterprises or regions.
|Year||Month||cycle (distance to the long-term trend (=0))|
Consumer confidence at all-time low, producers less positive
As of September 2022, consumer confidence has dropped further to an all-time low. The consumer confidence indicator is positioned well below its long-term average over the past two decades. Producer confidence also has deteriorated in September, but is positioned above its long-term average.
|Year||Month||Consumer confidence (average of the component questions)||Producer confidence (average of the component questions)|
Higher household consumption and exports, lower investments
Households spent 6.2 percent more in July 2022 year on year, adjusted for price changes. They spent more on services, but less on goods. Household consumption growth was slightly higher than in the preceding month.
In July 2022, the total volume of goods exports was up by 1.3 percent year on year (adjusted for working days). In the previous month, exports increased by almost 4 percent. The increase over July was mainly seen in exports of electrical machinery and chemical products.
The volume of investments in tangible fixed assets was 2.5 percent smaller year on year. This is mainly because investments in infrastructure and passenger cars were down. However, investments in buildings were higher than in July 2021.
Manufacturing output over 4 percent up in July
In July 2022, the average daily output generated by the Dutch manufacturing industry was up by 4.1 percent on July 2021. The growth was again lower than in previous months.
Number of bankruptcies virtually unchanged in August
The number of corporate bankruptcies, adjusted for court session days, has hardly changed. There was 1 more bankruptcy in August than in the previous month. The number of pronounced bankruptcies is low compared to the period before the outbreak of the coronavirus crisis.
House price increase levelled off further in August
In August, owner-occupied dwellings (excluding new constructions) were on average 11.9 percent more expensive than in the same month last year. The price increase was 14.5 percent in July. It is the fourth consecutive month that the price increase levelled off.
More hours worked and vacancies, more unemployed
In Q2 2022, the number of hours worked adjusted for seasonal effects was 2.6 percent higher than in Q1 2022. Total hours worked by employees and self-employed people over Q2 2022 amounted to approximately 3.7 billion.
At the end of June, the number of unfilled vacancies stood at 467 thousand. This is 16 thousand more than at the end of the previous quarter. This is the eighth consecutive quarter that the number of vacancies has increased. The number of vacancies has more than doubled in two years.
In August 2022, unemployment increased further to 378 thousand. This is 3.8 percent of the labour force.
In Q2 2022, turnover at temporary employment and job placement agencies rose by 0.7 percent relative to the previous quarter.
Economic growth of 2.6 percent in Q2 2022
According to the second quarterly estimate conducted by Statistics Netherlands (CBS) on the basis of currently available data, in Q2 2022 gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 2.6 percent relative to the previous quarter. Investments and the balance of trade (exports minus imports) contributed the most to economic growth. Household consumption also made a positive contribution.
GDP was up by 5.1 percent relative to Q2 2021. Household consumption, the trade balance and investments were higher in particular.
- Dossier - Business cycle