Manufacturers considerably less optimistic in August

© Hollandse Hoogte / Ramon van Flymen
In August 2022, the mood among Dutch manufacturers is considerably less optimistic than in the previous month. Producer confidence has decreased from 8.4 in July to 4.6 in August, as reported today by Statistics Netherlands (CBS).

Producer confidence is significantly higher than the long-term average of 1.0. Producer confidence reached an all-time high (12.7) in November 2021 and an all-time low (-28.7) in April 2020.

Producer confidence manufacturing industry (seasonally adjusted)
yearmonthbalance (average of the component questions)
2018September5.7
2018October5.9
2018November7.2
2018December7.5
2019January5.8
2019February6.3
2019March6.1
2019April6.7
2019May4.7
2019Juni3.3
2019Juli 3.9
2019August3.9
2019September3.3
2019October3.6
2019November2.8
2019December2.9
2020January2.5
2020February3.7
2020March0.2
2020April-28.7
2020May-25.1
2020June-15.1
2020July-8.7
2020August-5.4
2020September-4.8
2020October-5.6
2020November-3.8
2020December-0.4
2021January0.6
2021February0.1
2021March3.4
2021April6.5
2021May8.8
2021June11.5
2021July12.3
2021August9.6
2021September11.1
2021October12.3
2021November12.7
2021December10.2
2022January9
2022February8.5
2022March8.7
2022April10.8
2022May9.9
2022June8.1
2022July8.4
2022August4.6

All component indicators deteriorated

Optimism about stocks of finished products changed into pessimism. Furthermore, manufacturers were less positive about both their order positions and their future output.

Two of the three component indicators of producer confidence are positive: manufacturers who anticipate output to increase over the next three months outnumber those expecting a decrease. In addition, the majority consider their order position to be strong rather than weak, given the time of year. On the other hand, more manufacturers define their current stock of finished products as too large rather than too small. 

Confidence down in almost all industries

In August, producer confidence is lower than in the previous month in almost all industries. The food, beverages and tobacco industry is an exception. This industry shows a slight increase in confidence. As in the previous months, confidence in the electrotechnical and machinery industry is considerably higher than in other industries. In several other industries, optimism changed into pessimism. 

Producer confidence by sector (seasonally adjusted)
 August 2022 (average of the component questions)July 2022 (average of the component questions)
Electrotechnical products and machinery20.724.1
Transport equipment4.98
Food, beverages, tobacco2.62.2
Timber and building materials2.15.4
Metal-0.95.4
Petroleum-24.5
Paper and printing-3.12.5
Textiles, clothes, leather-4.55.3

Manufacturing output over 6 percent up in June

In June 2022, the average daily output generated by the Dutch manufacturing industry was up by 6.2 percent on June 2021. Output grew by 9.9 percent in the previous month. 

Producer confidence in Germany unchanged

Germany is an important market for the Dutch manufacturing industry. In August, German producer confidence according to the Business Climate Index of the IFO Institute remained unchanged. Companies are considerably more pessimistic about the current situation, but less pessimistic about the coming six months. In June, the average daily output generated by the German manufacturing industry grew by 0.2 percent year on year, as reported by Destatis.