Economic outlook more positive

© Hollandse Hoogte / Berlinda van Dam
The economic climate in June 2022 is more positive than in May, according to the CBS Business Cycle Tracer. Statistics Netherlands (CBS) reports that as of June, 9 out of the 13 indicators in the Business Cycle Tracer are performing above their long-term trend.

The CBS Business Cycle Tracer is a tool to monitor the state and the cycle of the Dutch economy. It presents a coherent macroeconomic picture of the past month or quarter, based on all the figures published by CBS. However, it does not apply equally to all households, enterprises or regions.

Business Cycle Tracer indicator (unweighted average of the indicators in the CBS Business Cycle Tracer)
YearMonthcycle (distance to the long-term trend (=0))
2015January-0.59
2015February-0.54
2015March-0.48
2015April-0.43
2015May-0.38
2015June-0.33
2015July-0.3
2015August-0.26
2015September-0.23
2015October-0.22
2015November-0.21
2015December-0.2
2016January-0.2
2016February-0.19
2016March-0.16
2016April-0.14
2016May-0.09
2016June-0.09
2016July-0.05
2016August0
2016September0.05
2016October0.08
2016November0.14
2016December0.18
2017January0.23
2017February0.29
2017March0.34
2017April0.38
2017May0.44
2017June0.47
2017July0.5
2017August0.56
2017September0.6
2017October0.64
2017November0.71
2017December0.76
2018January0.8
2018February0.85
2018March0.88
2018April0.89
2018May0.9
2018June0.9
2018July0.87
2018August0.88
2018September0.87
2018October0.84
2018November0.84
2018December0.81
2019January0.77
2019February0.76
2019March0.72
2019April0.69
2019May0.68
2019June0.64
2019July0.6
2019August0.55
2019September0.51
2019October0.48
2019November0.43
2019December0.52
2020January0.41
2020February0.35
2020March0.25
2020April-0.3
2020May-1
2020June-1.97
2020July-1.99
2020August-1.29
2020September-1.14
2020October-0.93
2020November-0.87
2020December-0.61
2021January-0.71
2021February-0.94
2021March-0.88
2021April-0.72
2021May-0.43
2021Juni-0.24
2021Juli0.07
2021August0.27
2021September0.35
2021October0.44
2021November0.54
2021December0.58
2022January0.56
2022February0.24
2022March0.45
2022April0.53
2022May0.74
2022June0.86

Consumer confidence at all-time low, producers also less positive

As of June 2022, consumer confidence has dropped to an all-time low. The consumer confidence indicator is positioned well below its long-term average over the past two decades. Producer confidence also has deteriorated in June, but is positioned well above its long-term average.

Consumer and producer confidence (seasonally adjusted)
YearMonthConsumer confidence (average of the component questions)Producer confidence (average of the component questions)
2018January2410.3
2018February2310.9
2018March249.5
2018April258.2
2018May239.8
2018June237.7
2018July236.3
2018August215.9
2018September195.7
2018October155.9
2018November137.2
2018December97.5
2019January05.8
2019February-26.3
2019March-46.1
2019April-36.7
2019May-34.7
2019June03.3
2019July 23.9
2019August03.9
2019September-23.3
2019October-13.6
2019November-22.8
2019December-22.9
2020January-32.5
2020February-23.7
2020March-20.2
2020April-22-28.7
2020May-31-25.1
2020June-27-15.1
2020July-26-8.7
2020August-29-5.4
2020September-28-4.8
2020October-30-5.6
2020November-26-3.8
2020December-20-0.4
2021January-190.6
2021February-190.1
2021March-183.4
2021April-146.5
2021May-98.8
2021June-311.5
2021July-412.3
2021August-69.6
2021September-511.1
2021October-1012.3
2021November-1912.7
2021December-2510.2
2022January-289
2022February-308.5
2022March-398.7
2022April-4810.8
2022May-479.9
2022June-508.1

Higher household consumption and exports, lower investments

Consumers spent 14.8 percent more in April 2022 compared to April one year previously. They mainly spent more on durable goods and services. The growth is larger than in March 2022. In April of last year, there were still coronavirus measures in place.

In April 2022, the total volume of goods exports was up by 2.8 percent year on year. Exports still decreased by 1.5 percent in the previous month. The increase over April was mainly seen in exports of chemical and metal products.

The volume of investments in tangible fixed assets was 0.5 percent smaller year on year. This is mainly because investments in infrastructure were down. However, investments in buildings were up.

Manufacturing output almost 14 percent up in April

In April 2022, the average daily output generated by the Dutch manufacturing industry was up by 13.7 percent on April 2021. Output grew by 7.6 percent in the previous month. Output is at an historically high level.

More bankruptcies in May

The number of corporate bankruptcies, adjusted for court session days, has increased. There were 71 more bankruptcies in May than in the previous month. However, the number of pronounced bankruptcies is still low compared to the period before the outbreak of the coronavirus crisis.

House price increase 18.8 percent in May

In May, owner-occupied dwellings (excluding new constructions) were on average 18.8 percent more expensive than in the same month last year. In the previous month, the price increase was 19.7 percent.

More hours worked and vacancies, more unemployed

In Q1 2022, the number of hours worked adjusted for seasonal effects was 0.9 percent higher than in Q4 2021. Total hours worked by employees and self-employed people over Q1 2022 amounted to approximately 3.6 billion.

At the end of March, the number of unfilled vacancies stood at 451 thousand. This is 59 thousand more than at the end of the previous quarter. The increase was stronger than in the previous two quarters and the number of unfilled vacancies surpassed the record of Q4 (392 thousand).

In May 2022, unemployment stood at 323 thousand. This is 3.3 percent of the labour force and slightly higher than in April 2022, when it was 3.2 percent. From March through May, unemployment was still down by an average of 4 thousand per month.

In Q1 2021, turnover at temporary employment and job placement agencies rose by 5.8 percent relative to the previous quarter. Year on year, this turnover increased by 19.2 percent.

GDP (volume), seasonally adjusted
YearQuarterIndex (2015=100)
2015Quarter 199.6
2015Quarter 299.9
2015Quarter 3100.2
2015Quarter 4100.3
2016Quarter 1101.2
2016Quarter 2101.4
2016Quarter 3102.6
2016Quarter 4103.4
2017Quarter 1104
2017Quarter 2104.9
2017Quarter 3105.6
2017Quarter 4106.4
2018Quarter 1106.9
2018Quarter 2107.6
2018Quarter 3107.8
2018Quarter 4108.3
2019Quarter 1109
2019Quarter 2109.5
2019Quarter 3109.9
2019Quarter 4110.4
2020Quarter 1108.7
2020Quarter 2100.2
2020Quarter 3106.4
2020Quarter 4106.4
2021Quarter 1106.5
2021Quarter 2110.6
2021Quarter 3112.2
2021Quarter 4113
2022Quarter 1113.5

Economic growth of 0.4 percent in Q1 2022

According to the second estimate conducted by Statistics Netherlands (CBS), gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 0.4 percent in Q1 2022 relative to Q4 2021. Growth is mainly attributable to increased household consumption.

GDP growth in Q1 2022 relative to Q1 2021 amounted to 6.7 percent. Growth is mainly attributable to increases in household consumption, the trade balance and in public consumption.