Economic growth of 2.1 percent in Q3 2021

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© ANP / Corné Sparidaens
According to the second estimate conducted by Statistics Netherlands (CBS), gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 2.1 percent in Q3 2021 relative to Q2 2021. In the first estimate, which was published on 16 November, growth amounted to 1.9 percent. The second GDP estimate is published 90 days after the end of each quarter.

The growth rate has been adjusted upwards. Compared to the first estimate, household consumption, mainly due to a larger increase in consumption by Dutch people abroad, and public consumption have been adjusted upwards. However, the trade balance has been revised downwards. Economic growth in the third quarter was mainly due to increased household consumption. Public consumption also increased, but investments and the trade balance decreased.

GDP (volume), seasonally adjusted
YearQuarterIndex (2015=100)
2014Quarter 197.3
2014Quarter 297.9
2014Quarter 398.1
2014Quarter 499
2015Quarter 199.6
2015Quarter 299.9
2015Quarter 3100.2
2015Quarter 4100.3
2016Quarter 1101.2
2016Quarter 2101.4
2016Quarter 3102.6
2016Quarter 4103.4
2017Quarter 1103.9
2017Quarter 2104.9
2017Quarter 3105.6
2017Quarter 4106.5
2018Quarter 1106.9
2018Quarter 2107.5
2018Quarter 3107.9
2018Quarter 4108.4
2019Quarter 1109
2019Quarter 2109.5
2019Quarter 3109.9
2019Quarter 4110.4
2020Quarter 1108.6
2020Quarter 299.5
2020Quarter 3107
2020Quarter 4107
2021Quarter 1106.2
2021Quarter 2110.2
2021Quarter 3112.5

Second estimate

The second estimate is conducted 90 days after the end of the quarter. The first estimate, which is calculated 45 days after the end of the quarter, is based on the most recent data available at that moment. After the first estimate, more new information about the state of the Dutch economy keeps pouring in, e.g. data about the sectors construction business services, hotels and restaurants, government care and the financial sector. These data are subsequently incorporated into new calculations.

The adjustment is larger than in the past five years (2106-2020). In absolute terms, the adjustment in the second estimate relative to the first estimate has averaged 0.04 percentage points over the past half decade, with the two extremes ranging between -0.2 and + 0.1 percentage points.

Quarter-on-quarter growth adjustment

With each new estimate, CBS also recalculates the seasonally adjusted series of previously published quarters. However, this has not resulted in adjustments to quarter-on-quarter growth in the previous quarters.

Growth relative to Q3 2020

Year-on-year, GDP increased by 5.2 percent. In the first estimate, growth amounted to 5.0 percent. The upward adjustment is caused by new and more figures on wholesale trade, banking and care.
The overall picture of the economy has remained unchanged. Compared to Q3 2020, household consumption and the trade balance were higher in particular. Investments and public consumption also made a positive contribution to growth.

GDP (volume)
YearQuarterIndex (year-on-year % change)
2014Quarter 11.3
2014Quarter 21.4
2014Quarter 31.1
2014Quarter 41.8
2015Quarter 11.9
2015Quarter 22.1
2015Quarter 32.5
2015Quarter 41.4
2016Quarter 12.1
2016Quarter 22.3
2016Quarter 32.1
2016Quarter 42.2
2017Quarter 13.2
2017Quarter 23
2017Quarter 32.8
2017Quarter 42.6
2018Quarter 12.6
2018Quarter 22.7
2018Quarter 32.2
2018Quarter 41.9
2019Quarter 11.9
2019Quarter 22
2019Quarter 32.1
2019Quarter 41.9
2020Quarter 1-0.2
2020Quarter 2-9.2
2020Quarter 3-2.6
2020Quarter 4-2.9
2021Quarter 1-2.4
2021Quarter 210.4
2021Quarter 35.2

158 thousand more jobs

The second estimate shows that the number of employee and self-employed jobs increased by 158 thousand in Q3 2021 compared to the previous quarter. The first estimate suggested an increase of 162 thousand jobs.

Relative to Q3 2020, the second estimate for Q3 2021 suggested an increase of 281 thousand employee and self-employed jobs, versus 283 thousand according to the first estimate.

Job figures are adjusted when additional information becomes available.

Total jobs (seasonally adjusted)
   change (quarter-on-quarter change (1,000))
2014Quarter 1-12
2014Quarter 218
2014Quarter 323
2014Quarter 429
2015Quarter 135
2015Quarter 233
2015Quarter 337
2015Quarter 441
2016Quarter 113
2016Quarter 253
2016Quarter 345
2016Quarter 456
2017Quarter 164
2017Quarter 268
2017Quarter 376
2017Quarter 473
2018Quarter 180
2018Quarter 268
2018Quarter 366
2018Quarter 445
2019Quarter 158
2019Quarter 243
2019Quarter 335
2019Quarter 452
2020Quarter 150
2020Quarter 2-293
2020Quarter 3163
2020Quarter 4-22
2021Quarter 1-10
2021Quarter 2150
2021Quarter 3158