The growth rate has been adjusted upwards. Compared to the first estimate, household consumption, mainly due to a larger increase in consumption by Dutch people abroad, and public consumption have been adjusted upwards. However, the trade balance has been revised downwards. Economic growth in the third quarter was mainly due to increased household consumption. Public consumption also increased, but investments and the trade balance decreased.
The second estimate is conducted 90 days after the end of the quarter. The first estimate, which is calculated 45 days after the end of the quarter, is based on the most recent data available at that moment. After the first estimate, more new information about the state of the Dutch economy keeps pouring in, e.g. data about the sectors construction business services, hotels and restaurants, government care and the financial sector. These data are subsequently incorporated into new calculations.
The adjustment is larger than in the past five years (2106-2020). In absolute terms, the adjustment in the second estimate relative to the first estimate has averaged 0.04 percentage points over the past half decade, with the two extremes ranging between -0.2 and + 0.1 percentage points.
Quarter-on-quarter growth adjustment
With each new estimate, CBS also recalculates the seasonally adjusted series of previously published quarters. However, this has not resulted in adjustments to quarter-on-quarter growth in the previous quarters.
Growth relative to Q3 2020
Year-on-year, GDP increased by 5.2 percent. In the first estimate, growth amounted to 5.0 percent. The upward adjustment is caused by new and more figures on wholesale trade, banking and care.
The overall picture of the economy has remained unchanged. Compared to Q3 2020, household consumption and the trade balance were higher in particular. Investments and public consumption also made a positive contribution to growth.
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158 thousand more jobs
The second estimate shows that the number of employee and self-employed jobs increased by 158 thousand in Q3 2021 compared to the previous quarter. The first estimate suggested an increase of 162 thousand jobs.
Relative to Q3 2020, the second estimate for Q3 2021 suggested an increase of 281 thousand employee and self-employed jobs, versus 283 thousand according to the first estimate.
Job figures are adjusted when additional information becomes available.
|change (quarter-on-quarter change (1,000))|