Economic outlook more positive again
The CBS Business Cycle Tracer is a tool to monitor the state and the cycle of the Dutch economy with 13 key macro-economic indicators. It provides a coherent macro-economic picture based on all the figures published by CBS over the past month or quarter and does not necessarily represent the situation at the level of individual households, businesses or regions.
|Year||Month||cycle (distance to the long-term trend (=0))|
Consumer confidence virtually unchanged, producer confidence deteriorated
In September, confidence among Dutch consumers has hardly changed. However, producer confidence deteriorated in August. Both consumer and producer confidence are positioned above their long-term average.
|Year||Month||Consumer confidence (average of the component questions)||Producer confidence (average of the component questions)|
Higher exports, investments and household consumption
Consumers spent 4.8 percent more in July 2021 than in the same month last year. The growth rate was lower than in May and June, when household consumption was up by 11.0 and 6.7 percent year-on-year, respectively. This can largely be attributed to the low household consumption level in the spring of 2020 as a result of the first lockdown. In July 2021, household consumption was 2.1 percent higher than in July 2019.
In July 2021, the total volume of goods exports was up by 8.4 percent year-on-year. The increase was mainly seen in exports of machinery, chemical and metal products. Compared to July 2019, exports were 8.8 percent higher. The volume of imports in July was up by 8.0 percent year-on-year and by 5.9 percent relative to July 2019.
The volume of investments in tangible fixed assets rose by 4.2 percent year-on-year in July 2021. There were mainly more investments in dwellings and buildings, but fewer investments in passenger cars and infrastructure. Compared to July 2019, investments were approximately 1 percent higher.
Manufacturing output 14.1 percent up in July
In July 2021, the average daily output generated by the Dutch manufacturing industry was up by 14.1 percent from July 2020, according to Statistics Netherlands (CBS). Output was up by 17.9 percent in the previous month. Compared to July 2019, growth was more than 9 percent. This made up amply for the loss in July 2020 due to the coronavirus pandemic.
Fewer bankruptcies in August
The number of corporate bankruptcies, adjusted for court session days, has decreased again. There were 11 fewer bankruptcies in August than in the previous month. The number of pronounced bankruptcies remained at a historically low level.
House prices continue to rise
In August, owner-occupied dwellings (excluding new constructions) were on average 17.8 percent more expensive than in the same month last year. It is the largest increase since October 2000. The price rise moderated slightly in 2019 but picked up again after that.
More hours worked, more vacancies, fewer unemployed
In Q2 2021, the number of hours worked adjusted for seasonal effects was 1.1 percent higher than in Q1 2021. Total hours worked by employees and self-employed people over Q1 2021 amounted to more than 3.4 billion.
In August, 301 thousand people were unemployed. Three months earlier, in May, there were 309 thousand unemployed. The number of unemployed has therefore decreased over the past three months by an average of 3 thousand per month. The unemployment rate stood at 3.2 percent in August.
The number of vacancies in Q2 2021 stood at 327 thousand. This is 82 thousand more than in the previous quarter. There has never been such a large quarter-on-quarter increase since the start of the measurement in 1997.
For the first time since the measurement started in 2003, the tension on the labour market has risen to such an extent that there are more vacancies than unemployed people. In Q2 2021, there were 106 vacancies for every 100 unemployed. The increase in tension is mainly attributable to a record growth in the number of vacancies.
In Q2 2021, turnover at temporary employment agencies rose by 3.0 percent relative to the previous quarter. Year-on-year, this turnover increased by 20.1 percent.
3.8 percent GDP growth in Q2 2021
According to the second estimate conducted by CBS, gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 3.8 percent in Q2 2021 relative to the previous quarter. This economic growth was mainly due to increased household consumption and a higher trade balance. Relative to Q2 2020, GDP was up by 10.4 percent.
- Dossier - Business Cycle