Manufacturers less optimistic

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© Hollandse Hoogte / ANP
In August 2021, the mood among Dutch manufacturers has deteriorated as compared to July, when producer confidence reached an all-time high. Confidence has dropped from 12.3 to 9.6, as reported today by Statistics Netherlands (CBS).
The long-term average over the past two decades stands at 0.5. Producer confidence reached an all-time high (12.3) in July 2021 and an all-time low (-28.7) in April 2020. In August, producer confidence is well above the long-term average.

Producer confidence manufacturing industry (seasonally adjusted)
yearmonthbalance (average of the component questions)
2017September8.5
2017October8.2
2017November9.1
2017December8.9
2018January10.3
2018February10.9
2018March9.5
2018April8.2
2018May9.8
2018June7.7
2018July6.3
2018August5.9
2018September5.7
2018October5.9
2018November7.2
2018December7.5
2019January5.8
2019February6.3
2019March6.1
2019April6.7
2019May4.7
2019Juni3.3
2019Juli 3.9
2019August3.9
2019September3.3
2019October3.6
2019November2.8
2019December2.9
2020January2.5
2020February3.7
2020March0.2
2020April-28.7
2020May-25.1
2020June-15.1
2020July-8.7
2020August-5.4
2020September-4.8
2020October-5.6
2020November-3.8
2020December-0.4
2021January0.6
2021February0.1
2021March3.4
2021April6.5
2021May8.8
2021June11.5
2021July12.3
2021August9.6

Manufacturers mainly less positive about future output

In August, manufacturers are considerably less positive about their future output than in July. Manufacturers’ opinions on stocks of finished products have also deteriorated. Opinions on order positions, on the other hand, have improved slightly. Manufacturers are even more positive about their order positions than ever before.

Manufacturers’ opinions on all three component indicators are positive. Manufacturers who anticipate output to increase over the next three months outnumber those expecting a decrease. More manufacturers consider their order position to be strong rather than weak, given the time of year. There are fewer manufacturers who define their current stocks of finished products as too large rather than too small.

Confidence down in almost all industries

In August, producer confidence fell in almost all manufacturing industries. However, in the timber and building materials industry, confidence still increased. Manufacturers of electrotechnical products and machinery were most positive.  

Producer confidence by sector (seasonally adjusted)
 August 2021 (average of the component questions)July 2021 (average of the component questions)
Electrotechnical products and machinery20.423.2
Timber and building materials19.718.8
Textiles, clothes, leather17.818.6
Paper and printing11.813.7
Metal9.910.7
Transport equipment9.515.8
Petroleum8.811.2
Food, beverages, tobacco3.76.6

Manufacturing output 17.9 percent up in June

In June 2021, the average daily output generated by the Dutch manufacturing industry was up by 17.9 percent on June 2020. Output was up by 16.4 percent in the previous month. Relative to June 2019, there was 7 percent output growth. This made up amply for the production loss in June 2020 due to the coronavirus pandemic. 

Producer confidence down in Germany

Germany is an important foreign market for the Dutch manufacturing industry. In August, German producer confidence according to the Business Climate Index of the IFO Institute fell due to both lower expectations and a lower assessment of the current situation. In June, the average daily output generated by the German manufacturing industry grew by almost 7 percent year-on-year, as reported by Destatis. Relative to June 2019, however, it was still lower by nearly 8 percent.

Sources

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