Economic outlook again less negative
The CBS Business Cycle Tracer is a tool used to monitor the state and the course of the Dutch economy and is based on 13 key macro-economic indicators. Together, these provide a coherent macro-economic picture based on CBS figures which are being published over the past month or quarter. It does not necessarily represent the situation at the level of of individual households, businesses or regions.
|Year||Month||cycle (distance to the long-term trend (=0))|
Consumers and producers less pessimistic
In December, consumer confidence is less negative than it was in November. Confidence among Dutch manufacturers was less negative in November than in October. Both producer and consumer confidence are positioned below their long-term averages.
|Year||Month||Consumer confidence (average of the component questions)||Producer confidence (average of the component questions)|
Exports up, household consumption and investments down
In October 2020, the total volume of goods exports was up by 4.1 percent year-on-year. This is the largest growth so far this year. Exports of chemical and agricultural products and exports of machinery and appliances increased in particular.
The volume of investments in tangible fixed assets was 5.8 percent down in October 2020 relative to the same month last year. The contraction is larger than in the previous month and is mainly due to lower investments in buildings, infrastructure, aircraft and machinery.
Consumers spent 6.5 percent less in October 2020 than in the same month last year. The decline is again somewhat larger than in September. Just as in the previous months, consumers spent mainly less on services.
Manufacturing output almost 4 percent down in October
In October 2020, the average daily output generated by the Dutch manufacturing industry was 3.7 percent down on October 2019. This is the smallest contraction after May 2020, when output was more than 12 percent lower than one year previously.
Slightly more bankruptcies in November
The number of corporate bankruptcies, adjusted for court session days, has increased. There were 5 more bankruptcies in November than in the previous month. However, the number of pronounced bankruptcies remained at a low level.
House prices almost 9 percent higher in November
In November 2020, prices of owner-occupied dwellings (excluding new constructions) were on average 8.9 percent higher than in the same month last year.
Significant rise in number of hours worked
In Q3 2020, the number of hours worked, adjusted for seasonal effects, was 5 percent higher than in the second quarter. In Q2, the number of hours worked fell sharply by 5.7 percent. In total, employees and self-employed worked nearly 3.4 billion hours in the third quarter.
At the end of September, the number of unfilled vacancies had risen to 216 thousand, 16 thousand more than the previous quarter. At the end of 2019, there was still a record level of 286 thousand unfilled vacancies. Due to the coronavirus crisis, the number of vacancies fell by 86 thousand in the first half of the year, a decrease of 30 percent.
In November 2020, there were 378 thousand unemployed (ILO definition), equivalent to 4.0 percent of the labour force. From September through November, unemployment declined by an average of 16 thousand per month. Between March and August, unemployment rose by over 150 thousand. Subsequently, it fell by nearly 50 thousand up through November.
In Q3 2020, turnover at temporary employment agencies rose by 6.6 percent. Relative to one year previously, turnover was down by 11.1 percent.
GDP up by 7.8 percent in Q3 2020
According to the second estimate conducted by CBS, gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 7.8 percent in Q3 2020 relative to the previous quarter. The increase was mainly due to consumption, investments and the trade balance. Relative to one year previously, GDP contracted by 2.5 percent.
On Tuesday 16 February 2021, CBS will publish the first estimate of GDP and employment over Q4 2020 and the year 2020.
- Dossier - Business Cycle