Manufacturing output almost 6 percent down in July

In July 2020, the average daily output generated by the Dutch manufacturing industry was 5.8 percent down on July 2019. The year-on-year decrease is smaller than in the previous three months, as reported by Statistics Netherlands (CBS). In August, producer confidence improved for the fourth consecutive month.

Average daily output manufacturing (volume)
jaarmaandchange (year-on-year % change)
2016August2.4
2016September2.3
2016October0
2016November3.4
2016December6.7
2017January0.4
2017February4.9
2017March3
2017April0.5
2017May5
2017June2.4
2017July2.7
2017August3.7
2017September4.8
2017October5.1
2017November5.3
2017December4.4
2018January7.5
2018February3.2
2018March3.8
2018April4.7
2018May2.9
2018June3.3
2018July0.9
2018August4
2018September1.7
2018October2.4
2018November1.3
2018December-4.3
2019January-0.6
2019February-0.1
2019March-0.8
2019April-0.3
2019May-0.9
2019June-2.5
2019July0
2019August-1.7
2019September1.2
2019Oktober0.5
2019November-1.6
2019December-1.2
2020January1.4
2020February-0.9
2020March-1.9
2020April-11.1
2020May-12.1
2020June-9.7
2020July-5.8

Output decline smaller in almost all industries

In July, almost all industries again saw their output decline on an annual basis. However, contraction was smaller in almost industries compared to June. Of the eight largest industries within manufacturing, the repair and installation of machinery industry recorded the strongest output contraction. The chemical industry recorded output growth for the first time in over a year.

Average daily output manufacturing (volume) by sector, July 2020
Categorychange (year-on-year % change)
Chemical products2.2
Food products-0.4
Rubber and plastic products-2.7
Machinery-4.9
Electrical and electronics-12.8
Metal products-12.9
Transport equipment-13
Repair and installation of machinery-21.9
Manufacturing (total)-5.8
Altogether, the industries referred to in the above graph account for approximately 75 percent of the total manufacturing output

Downward trend

A more accurate picture of short-term output developments is obtained when figures are adjusted for seasonal effects and the working-day pattern. After adjustments, an increase of 3.0 percent is seen in the manufacturing output between June and July. 

Adjusted for seasonal and working-day effects, manufacturing output is seen to fluctuate significantly. From mid-2014 until the beginning of 2018, the overall trend was upward. Subsequently, the trend has been downward.

Seasonally adjusted average daily output manufacturing (volume)
jaarmaandindex (2015=100)
2016August101.7
2016September102.3
2016October102.5
2016November105
2016December106.3
2017January103.1
2017February105.5
2017March105.2
2017April104.6
2017May106.6
2017June106.1
2017July106.1
2017August105.6
2017September107.3
2017October107.7
2017November109.7
2017December110.4
2018January110.5
2018February109.4
2018March109.4
2018April109.4
2018May109.6
2018June109.3
2018July107.6
2018August109.3
2018September109.1
2018October109.6
2018November110.2
2018December107
2019January109.6
2019February109.2
2019March108.8
2019April108.9
2019May108.5
2019June107.3
2019July107.5
2019August107.8
2019September109.5
2019October109.7
2019November108.4
2019December106.5
2020January109.8
2020February107.8
2020March106.5
2020April97.6
2020May96
2020June98.5
2020July101.4

Producer confidence continues to rise in August

In August, confidence among Dutch manufacturers was less unfavourable for the fourth consecutive month. Manufacturers were mainly less negative about their order position and their stocks of finished products.

Germany is an important foreign market for the Dutch manufacturing industry. According to the Business Climate Index of the IFO Institute, in August producer confidence improved for the fourth month in a row. Both opinions on future output and opinions on the current situation improved. In July, the average daily output generated by the German industry contracted by almost 12 percent year-on-year, as reported by Destatis. In Germany, too, the decrease is smaller than in the previous three months.

The figures published in this news release are provisional and subject to revisions.

Sources

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