Manufacturing output almost 10 percent down in June

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In June 2020, the average daily output generated by the Dutch manufacturing industry was 9.7 percent down on June 2019. The year-on-year decrease is somewhat smaller than in the previous two monhts as reported by Statistics Netherlands (CBS). Producer confidence has improved significantly over the past three months.

Average daily output manufacturing (volume)
jaarmaandchange (year-on-year % change)
2016July3.3
2016August2.4
2016September2.3
2016October0
2016November3.4
2016December6.7
2017January0.4
2017February4.9
2017March3
2017April0.5
2017May5
2017June2.4
2017July2.7
2017August3.7
2017September4.8
2017October5.1
2017November5.3
2017December4.4
2018January7.5
2018February3.2
2018March3.8
2018April4.7
2018May2.9
2018June3.3
2018July0.9
2018August4
2018September1.7
2018October2.4
2018November1.3
2018December-4.3
2019January-0.6
2019February-0.1
2019March-0.8
2019April-0.3
2019May-0.9
2019June-2.5
2019July0
2019August-1.7
2019September1.2
2019Oktober0.5
2019November-1.6
2019December-1.2
2020January1.4
2020February-0.9
2020March-1.9
2020April-11.1
2020May-11.9
2020June-9.7

Output decline smaller in almost all industries

In June, almost all industries saw their output decline on an annual basis, except the timber and building materials industry and the tobacco industry. Of the eight largest industries within manufacturing, the repair and installation of machinery industry recorded the strongest output contraction. However, in over three quarter of the industries the decline was smaller than in the previous month.

Average daily output manufacturing (volume) by sector, June 2020
Categorychange (year-on-year % change)
Food products-3.6
Chemical products-5.1
Rubber and plastic products-8
Machinery-8.8
Electrical and electronics-9.7
Metal products-11.9
Transport equipment-17.9
Repair and installation of machinery-28.1
Manufacturing (total)-9.7
Altogether, the industries referred to in the above graph account for approximately 75 percent of the total manufacturing output

Downward trend

A more accurate picture of short-term output developments is obtained when figures are adjusted for seasonal effects and the working-day pattern. After adjustments, an increase of 2.1 percent is seen in the manufacturing output between May and June. 

Adjusted for seasonal and working-day effects, manufacturing output is seen to fluctuate significantly. From mid-2014 until the beginning of 2018, the overall trend was upward. Subsequently, the trend has been downward.

Seasonally adjusted average daily output manufacturing (volume)
jaarmaandindex (2015=100)
2016July102.9
2016August101.7
2016September102.3
2016October102.5
2016November105
2016December106.3
2017January103.1
2017February105.5
2017March105.2
2017April104.6
2017May106.6
2017June106.1
2017July106.1
2017August105.6
2017September107.3
2017October107.7
2017November109.7
2017December110.4
2018January110.5
2018February109.4
2018March109.4
2018April109.4
2018May109.6
2018June109.3
2018July107.6
2018August109.3
2018September109.1
2018October109.6
2018November110.2
2018December107
2019January109.6
2019February109.2
2019March108.8
2019April108.9
2019May108.5
2019June107.3
2019July107.5
2019August107.8
2019September109.5
2019October109.7
2019November108.4
2019December106.5
2020January109.8
2020February107.8
2020March106.5
2020April97.2
2020May95.9
2020June97.9

Producer confidence continues to rise in July

In July, confidence among Dutch manufacturers improved for the third consecutive month. Expectations on future output improved again and were positive for the first time since March 2020. At the start of Q3 2020, the industrial capacity utilisation rate stood at 76.9 percent, slightly up on the 74.2 percent rate at the start of Q2, but still the second-lowest capacity utilisation rate over 7 years.

Producer confidence manufacturing industry (seasonally adjusted)
yearmonthbalance (average of the component questions)
2016August1.2
2016September3.4
2016October4.3
2016November3.4
2016December4.7
2017January6
2017February7
2017March7.8
2017April8.3
2017May6.1
2017June7.2
2017July6.6
2017August5.4
2017September8.5
2017October8.2
2017November9.1
2017December8.9
2018January10.3
2018February10.9
2018March9.5
2018April8.2
2018May9.8
2018June7.7
2018July6.3
2018August5.9
2018September5.7
2018October5.9
2018November7.2
2018December7.5
2019January5.8
2019February6.3
2019March6.1
2019April6.7
2019May4.7
2019Juni3.3
2019Juli 3.9
2019August3.9
2019September3.3
2019October3.6
2019November2.8
2019December2.9
2020January2.5
2020February3.7
2020March0.2
2020April-28.7
2020May-25.1
2020June-15.1
2020July-8.7

Germany is an important foreign market for the Dutch manufacturing industry. According to the Business Climate Index of the IFO Institute, in July producer confidence improved for the third month in a row as well. Both opinions on future output and opinions on the current situation were less negative compared to the previous month. The capacity utilisation rate improved in Germany as well, from 70.4 percent to 74.9 percent.

The figures published in this news release are provisional and subject to revisions.

Sources

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