Mortality in second week of April estimated at 5,000

© Hollandse Hoogte / Marcel van den Bergh
More deaths have been registered in recent weeks than the weekly average around this time of year. For week 15 (ending 12 April), the number of deaths is estimated at around 5,000. This estimate has been based on the number of death certificates received by Statistics Netherlands (CBS) for week 15. This count is similar to that of week 14 (ending 5 April), when it stood at 5,037. Statistics Netherlands (CBS) and the National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM) report this on the basis of provisional counts of the number of deaths per week.

Since registration was delayed around Easter, which is usually the case after a public holiday, this estimate has a wider error margin. The number of deaths in week 15 is very likely to be in the range between 4,700 and 5,300. At least certain is that mortality is still higher than the weekly average throughout the period week 1 to 10 inclusive of this year. Weekly mortality over this period stood at 3,132 on average.

Number of deaths per week
 201720182019*2020*
13568334330643099
23637335932613364
33487336431533151
43626332231793040
53574340331443157
63446351331853188
73417366032533195
83328369132232953
93152393730663087
103054409231723092
112843373332283211
122778343030433593
132850322530144432
142764304029005037
152810286029015036
16271327603040
17277826632959
18276926452808
19280226412773
20280126062821
21277226742873
22270127762732
23262426792736
24264325572649
25262726012694
26269126192836
27269727262726
28252026712762
29267427042585
30257127673007
31251027602732
32265727452629
33254026052612
34254526122616
35257625272785
36257026132556
37270725392643
38271527062582
39266926962753
40264128062717
41276327602912
42270627392879
43267626712869
44272628152856
45279727983016
46291627613062
47291728593025
48288629073041
49302729683016
50321830173164
51307930413247
52318729013019
* provisional figures 2020: latest weekly figure is an estimate.

The rising mortality coincides with the outbreak of the coronavirus crisis in the Netherlands. The first confirmed COVID-19 patient in the Netherlands was reported on 27 February 2020. The first death involving COVID-19 was reported on 6 March 2020. The COVID-19 outbreak was declared a pandemic by the World Health Organization (WHO) on 11 March 2020.
As established on Thursday 16 April, in week 14 a total of 1,077 deaths were reported that involved COVID-19, against 892 in week 15. Since not all COVID-19 patients are tested, the actual numbers in the Netherlands are higher than the numbers stated in the report. A more complete picture emerges by looking at the total weekly number of deaths as based on the data received by CBS, regardless of the cause of death.

Mortality rises mainly among the elderly

The rise in mortality is mainly seen among the elderly part of the population. Based on information received so far, mortality among elderly people in week 15 is more or less comparable to week 14. Excess mortality stood at an estimated 1,850 among people aged 65 years and over relative to the weekly average in the first ten weeks of 2020 (i.e. a 65-percent increase).
Mortality has declined in the age group 0 to 64 years as of week 13. In week 15, it was still approximately 12 percent higher than the weekly average in the first ten weeks.

Number of deaths per week, 2020*
 Average week 1 to 10 inclusiveWeek 11Week 12Week 13Week 14Week 15 (received data)Week 15 (additional estimate)Week 15 (total)
0 to 64 yrs396406444491487309134443
65 to 79 yrs92094710741394148510574171474
80 yrs and over1816185820752547306523617583119
* provisional figures

Higher mortality among men

Over the past few weeks, mortality among men has been higher than among women. The mortality gap declined in week 14. This decline continued through week 15. In week 15, there were 1,050 more deaths among the male population, i.e. two-thirds up from the weekly average in the first ten weeks of 2020; and 850 more deaths among the female population, over 50 percent up from the average. In week 13, mortality was up by almost two-thirds among men and by around 50 percent among women. The share of men among COVID-19 deaths as reported to RIVM has declined as well (from two-thirds to 60 percent).

Number of deaths per week, 2020*
 MenMen (received data)Men (additional estimate)Men (total)WomenWomen (received data)Women (additional estimate)Women (total)
Average week 1 to 10 inclusive15321600
Week 1115931618
Week 1218601733
Week 1323482084
Week 1426382399
Week 151889702259118386072445
* provisional figures

Noord-Brabant and Limburg still recording highest excess mortality

Based on the most recently available data, mortality in week 15 (ending 12 April) is still estimated at double the weekly average over the first ten weeks of 2020 in the provinces of Noord-Brabant and Limburg. This has been the case since week 13.
According to similar estimates, in the other provinces as well, mortality in week 15 is barely different from week 14. Gelderland, Overijssel and Utrecht all show excess mortality figures which areof at least 50 percent higher compared to the first ten weeks of this year. In Zuid-Holland and Noord-Holland, mortality it is up by over one-third.

Number of deaths per week, 2020*
WeekZuid-HollandZuid-Holland (received data)Zuid-Holland (additional estimate)Zuid-Holland (total)Noord-HollandNoord-Holland (received data)Noord-Holland (additional estimate)Noord-Holland (total)Noord-BrabantNoord-Brabant (received data)Noord-Brabant (additional estimate)Noord-Brabant (total)GelderlandGelderland (received data)Gelderland (additional estimate)Gelderland (total)UtrechtUtrecht (received data)Utrecht (additional estimate)Utrecht (total)OverijsselOverijssel (received data)Overijssel (additional estimate)Overijssel (total)LimburgLimburg (received data)Limburg (additional estimate)Limburg (total)FrieslandFriesland (received data)Friesland (additional estimate)Friesland (total)GroningenGroningen (received data)Groningen (additional estimate)Groningen (total)DrentheDrenthe (received data)Drenthe (additional estimate)Drenthe (total)FlevolandFlevoland (received data)Flevoland (additional estimate)Flevoland (total)ZeelandZeeland (received data)Zeeland (additional estimate)Zeeland (total)
Week 1 to 10 inclusive6244734813942112162501291151075184
Week 116154575403922112302801231161045588
Week 126145237064522122463301411221054894
Week 136946309665642763034841511201134487
Week 1490970610606393213265601331161115997
Week 15652241893459210669778272105052116868925578333272733453801225021174215973371109924123461864752499
* provisional figures

Mortality distributions by municipality

In several municipalities in Noord-Brabant, Limburg and around the city of Zwolle, the number of deaths in week 14 was more than double the weekly average in the first ten weeks of this year. In ten different municipalities including Grave, Meijerijstad, Uden, Heerde and IJsselstein, the number of deaths is even 5 or more times that average. The provinces of Noord-Holland, Zuid-Holland and Gelderland recorded the largest increase relative to week 13.
Mortality figures at the municipal level may fluctuate significantly, especially in the smaller municipalities. A (significant) rise over a particular week may therefore be coincidental and is not necessarily related to the coronavirus crisis.

1) Select week:
Deaths registered weekly*, relative to the municipality's average across weeks 1 to 10
 Week 11Week 12Week 13Week 14
Appingedam1.041.390.352.09
Delfzijl0.611.060.610.61
Groningen (gemeente)0.931.131.021.13
Loppersum1.290.430.001.29
Almere1.281.060.801.01
Stadskanaal1.431.240.760.86
Veendam0.951.220.950.41
Zeewolde0.420.831.251.25
Achtkarspelen0.221.091.090.87
Ameland1.250.000.000.00
Harlingen0.600.601.501.50
Heerenveen1.200.601.541.71
Leeuwarden0.980.981.110.68
Ooststellingwerf0.681.690.340.17
Opsterland1.060.910.760.61
Schiermonnikoog0.001.330.000.00
Smallingerland1.361.021.141.25
Terschelling1.400.003.500.00
Vlieland3.000.000.000.00
Weststellingwerf0.741.031.030.88
Assen1.710.891.380.89
Coevorden0.830.520.731.67
Emmen1.111.110.951.07
Hoogeveen0.361.180.730.82
Meppel0.610.911.521.52
Almelo1.011.011.580.58
Borne1.281.541.791.79
Dalfsen0.960.960.582.50
Deventer1.151.152.422.74
Enschede1.260.951.530.99
Haaksbergen1.021.840.821.02
Hardenberg0.890.890.451.52
Hellendoorn0.960.680.961.10
Hengelo (O.)1.030.980.690.86
Kampen1.071.312.262.98
Losser1.090.870.431.09
Noordoostpolder0.810.810.700.81
Oldenzaal1.191.341.791.04
Ommen0.561.411.411.41
Raalte1.180.791.581.97
Staphorst1.501.001.002.00
Tubbergen0.650.870.871.52
Urk1.130.001.132.25
Wierden0.771.350.960.77
Zwolle1.312.002.342.06
Aalten1.360.851.361.36
Apeldoorn1.021.491.681.49
Arnhem1.221.331.101.63
Barneveld0.941.290.941.53
Beuningen0.590.880.592.35
Brummen1.622.701.621.89
Buren0.650.431.301.96
Culemborg1.400.931.862.09
Doesburg0.431.301.301.30
Doetinchem1.081.000.581.25
Druten0.311.251.883.44
Duiven1.630.700.701.16
Ede0.741.421.161.53
Elburg0.850.851.061.28
Epe0.721.451.741.74
Ermelo1.050.881.402.11
Harderwijk1.621.621.221.35
Hattem0.361.441.440.72
Heerde0.981.954.635.12
Heumen1.431.792.502.50
Lochem1.340.850.851.83
Maasdriel1.621.081.351.62
Nijkerk1.071.251.611.61
Nijmegen0.810.841.861.89
Oldebroek1.361.141.821.82
Putten0.890.000.670.89
Renkum0.631.250.880.75
Rheden1.180.941.421.73
Rozendaal0.001.000.000.00
Scherpenzeel1.890.951.420.47
Tiel0.851.101.221.46
Voorst0.960.001.151.54
Wageningen0.961.171.381.17
Westervoort1.820.001.362.73
Winterswijk0.591.620.880.29
Wijchen1.110.831.671.25
Zaltbommel1.060.211.492.13
Zevenaar0.971.291.610.65
Zutphen0.650.931.200.93
Nunspeet1.581.752.114.21
Dronten1.211.381.031.55
Amersfoort0.751.001.341.38
Baarn1.151.310.980.98
De Bilt0.481.050.890.40
Bunnik0.871.740.001.74
Bunschoten0.650.321.291.94
Eemnes1.291.291.290.64
Houten1.461.460.633.33
Leusden1.712.441.461.46
Lopik0.530.001.061.59
Montfoort1.800.600.003.60
Renswoude0.000.710.710.71
Rhenen0.240.981.221.46
Soest1.210.911.520.91
Utrecht (gemeente)1.220.971.771.77
Veenendaal0.501.501.501.50
Woudenberg0.000.451.351.80
Wijk bij Duurstede0.610.001.430.41
IJsselstein0.681.362.955.00
Zeist1.270.570.961.34
Nieuwegein0.710.710.951.90
Aalsmeer0.670.671.330.33
Alkmaar1.061.331.831.28
Amstelveen1.321.131.261.95
Amsterdam0.911.081.531.68
Beemster0.531.071.070.00
Bergen (NH.)2.050.261.281.41
Beverwijk0.881.501.631.25
Blaricum0.880.001.752.63
Bloemendaal0.982.351.181.57
Castricum1.011.011.452.17
Diemen0.910.910.681.59
Edam-Volendam0.761.770.510.89
Enkhuizen1.381.381.723.45
Haarlem1.100.951.591.74
Haarlemmermeer1.171.031.131.60
Heemskerk0.781.110.781.33
Heemstede0.971.612.902.90
Heerhugowaard1.172.081.691.17
Heiloo1.001.800.600.80
Den Helder0.940.870.791.50
Hilversum0.900.621.401.40
Hoorn0.750.751.651.20
Huizen1.770.211.561.15
Landsmeer0.000.002.002.00
Langedijk1.091.961.521.09
Laren (NH.)0.381.921.151.15
Medemblik0.901.100.801.20
Oostzaan0.860.000.860.43
Opmeer1.502.001.500.50
Ouder-Amstel0.391.171.570.39
Purmerend1.121.261.681.26
Schagen0.790.890.501.09
Texel0.940.941.251.88
Uitgeest0.530.001.590.53
Uithoorn1.432.380.241.19
Velsen0.661.231.232.62
Weesp0.671.111.561.11
Zandvoort1.331.332.221.78
Zaanstad0.801.000.861.36
Alblasserdam0.291.140.570.29
Alphen aan den Rijn1.121.010.731.40
Barendrecht1.011.010.890.76
Drechterland1.041.381.381.38
Brielle1.231.641.231.64
Capelle aan den IJssel1.111.111.111.88
Delft0.881.011.070.88
Dordrecht0.910.821.161.47
Gorinchem1.611.290.812.26
Gouda0.880.951.461.46
's-Gravenhage (gemeente)0.811.001.011.73
Hardinxveld-Giessendam1.280.770.771.28
Hellevoetsluis0.781.561.091.41
Hendrik-Ido-Ambacht0.770.380.190.58
Stede Broec2.121.521.211.82
Hillegom0.910.910.680.45
Katwijk0.760.910.980.91
Krimpen aan den IJssel0.961.731.731.92
Leiden0.820.871.221.38
Leiderdorp1.220.821.431.63
Lisse0.310.940.942.19
Maassluis0.721.010.431.30
Nieuwkoop1.521.091.091.30
Noordwijk0.950.241.431.43
Oegstgeest1.060.210.851.49
Oudewater3.502.332.331.75
Papendrecht1.360.681.691.19
Ridderkerk0.972.581.511.61
Rotterdam1.001.091.201.62
Rijswijk (ZH.)0.881.141.231.49
Schiedam1.260.960.720.72
Sliedrecht0.310.781.560.63
Albrandswaard1.111.391.390.83
Westvoorne0.640.210.640.43
Vlaardingen1.250.881.001.44
Voorschoten0.790.790.951.75
Waddinxveen1.460.421.041.04
Wassenaar2.151.690.770.92
Woerden1.971.051.321.97
Zoetermeer1.170.891.231.40
Zoeterwoude0.440.441.310.44
Zwijndrecht0.780.950.780.86
Borsele1.130.381.502.25
Goes0.562.700.901.35
West Maas en Waal0.531.322.891.58
Hulst1.130.811.131.29
Kapelle1.390.701.040.70
Middelburg (Z.)0.921.121.020.92
Reimerswaal1.671.390.831.39
Terneuzen0.930.530.790.93
Tholen0.911.450.732.18
Veere1.320.791.320.26
Vlissingen1.031.031.120.84
De Ronde Venen1.301.011.010.87
Tytsjerksteradiel2.182.731.271.09
Asten1.961.571.963.52
Baarle-Nassau1.202.401.802.40
Bergen op Zoom0.961.100.810.88
Best0.920.771.540.62
Boekel2.121.067.413.71
Boxmeer0.781.961.761.96
Boxtel1.451.943.063.06
Breda1.331.331.471.44
Deurne0.452.091.492.09
Pekela0.330.330.331.00
Dongen1.110.892.224.44
Eersel1.581.050.791.32
Eindhoven1.101.171.711.56
Etten-Leur1.460.852.322.56
Geertruidenberg0.431.301.300.87
Gilze en Rijen0.650.431.521.96
Goirle0.570.752.641.70
Grave1.670.832.086.25
Haaren1.611.612.260.00
Helmond0.971.701.822.48
's-Hertogenbosch1.571.571.972.87
Heusden0.711.432.020.95
Hilvarenbeek1.350.901.352.25
Loon op Zand0.871.521.091.09
Mill en Sint Hubert1.400.470.003.27
Nuenen, Gerwen en Nederwetten0.750.502.502.00
Oirschot0.930.701.631.16
Oisterwijk0.681.021.860.68
Oosterhout0.730.651.301.14
Oss0.911.462.743.41
Rucphen0.850.851.911.49
Sint-Michielsgestel1.232.462.282.46
Someren1.781.560.893.56
Son en Breugel1.861.160.471.16
Steenbergen0.430.851.061.06
Waterland1.581.050.790.53
Tilburg1.002.222.682.71
Uden2.102.906.776.13
Valkenswaard1.080.951.623.38
Veldhoven0.672.172.171.83
Vught1.341.641.041.19
Waalre0.931.630.700.93
Waalwijk0.781.172.721.65
Woensdrecht0.920.921.380.92
Zundert1.960.981.762.35
Wormerland0.900.901.200.90
Landgraaf1.141.141.702.27
Beek (L.)0.630.211.250.63
Beesel1.040.702.091.74
Bergen (L.)1.581.050.532.11
Brunssum1.030.901.921.28
Gennep1.090.822.452.73
Heerlen1.461.422.172.12
Kerkrade1.291.082.452.01
Maastricht1.171.341.621.94
Meerssen0.752.451.132.08
Mook en Middelaar0.780.783.113.89
Nederweert0.931.553.412.48
Roermond0.970.971.491.64
Simpelveld0.950.480.482.38
Stein (L.)0.460.621.383.38
Vaals1.110.741.111.85
Venlo1.291.802.082.36
Venray1.710.921.452.11
Voerendaal1.162.032.031.74
Weert1.080.831.501.67
Valkenburg aan de Geul1.280.850.432.13
Lelystad0.990.840.841.15
Horst aan de Maas1.041.953.512.99
Oude IJsselstreek1.061.280.641.70
Teylingen0.700.560.850.99
Utrechtse Heuvelrug0.631.170.631.25
Oost Gelre0.491.641.311.80
Koggenland0.240.950.711.42
Lansingerland0.510.640.902.56
Leudal1.691.452.893.61
Maasgouw1.151.311.972.30
Gemert-Bakel2.132.554.261.70
Halderberge1.251.721.251.41
Heeze-Leende0.601.400.600.80
Laarbeek1.251.004.253.25
Reusel-De Mierden0.001.360.451.36
Roerdalen0.480.951.902.62
Roosendaal1.101.161.101.61
Schouwen-Duiveland1.390.761.141.14
Aa en Hunze1.251.251.040.83
Borger-Odoorn1.150.771.150.96
Cuijk0.391.761.962.94
Landerd1.801.203.003.90
De Wolden1.040.631.461.46
Noord-Beveland2.001.001.000.50
Wijdemeren1.021.220.821.02
Noordenveld1.231.081.080.77
Twenterand0.630.511.390.89
Westerveld0.381.350.771.35
Sint Anthonis2.181.092.552.18
Lingewaard1.572.002.141.43
Cranendonck0.831.882.503.75
Steenwijkerland1.031.131.241.13
Moerdijk1.101.370.961.37
Echt-Susteren1.071.431.612.14
Sluis0.681.361.361.53
Drimmelen0.751.511.322.45
Bernheze1.552.244.314.83
Alphen-Chaam0.480.483.811.43
Bergeijk0.792.111.321.58
Bladel1.520.431.302.39
Gulpen-Wittem0.380.771.151.15
Tynaarlo0.741.050.950.32
Midden-Drenthe0.830.831.391.11
Overbetuwe0.631.001.751.63
Hof van Twente0.931.400.581.16
Neder-Betuwe0.260.771.032.82
Rijssen-Holten1.130.700.851.27
Geldrop-Mierlo1.171.041.041.95
Olst-Wijhe1.111.112.001.78
Dinkelland1.131.130.972.26
Westland1.011.190.891.96
Midden-Delfland0.771.151.540.38
Berkelland0.711.311.311.31
Bronckhorst1.290.861.712.14
Sittard-Geleen0.791.311.352.10
Kaag en Braassem2.061.470.881.47
Dantumadiel0.001.281.032.05
Zuidplas0.290.590.741.62
Peel en Maas1.143.925.704.30
Oldambt1.410.301.520.71
Zwartewaterland0.582.032.614.06
Súdwest-Fryslân1.031.271.520.85
Bodegraven-Reeuwijk0.820.822.861.43
Eijsden-Margraten0.830.631.672.92
Stichtse Vecht0.910.831.401.07
Hollands Kroon0.591.180.941.53
Leidschendam-Voorburg0.750.621.300.96
Goeree-Overflakkee1.860.931.242.27
Pijnacker-Nootdorp0.750.751.312.25
Nissewaard1.560.961.561.70
Krimpenerwaard0.840.841.582.42
De Fryske Marren0.181.360.821.55
Gooise Meren0.391.091.331.09
Berg en Dal0.790.792.181.58
Meierijstad1.203.664.585.56
Waadhoeke1.011.241.350.90
Westerwolde1.430.950.630.95
Midden-Groningen1.200.931.670.83
Beekdaelen1.491.351.352.43
Montferland1.140.911.140.68
Altena1.100.331.101.32
West Betuwe1.001.001.442.33
Vijfheerenlanden1.050.971.451.77
Hoeksche Waard1.131.191.071.13
Het Hogeland0.711.431.221.02
Westerkwartier0.611.221.221.39
Noardeast-Fryslân1.000.401.101.30
Molenlanden1.130.190.940.94
* provisional figures

Data sources for CBS and RIVM

CBS receives mortality data on a daily basis from municipal registers. This is before it receives any information on the causes of these deaths. CBS receives such information by way of the medical certificate of cause of death which is completed by the physician who attended the deceased. The publication of data from cause of death certificates is normally scheduled for Q3 2020, but CBS will make every effort to release this information at an earlier stage.
RIVM receives data on confirmed COVID-19 deaths from municipal health services (GGD) around the country on a daily basis.

Estimates based on death certificates received so far

In general, some time elapses between the actual date of death and the moment when this data reaches CBS. Death certificate information is being collected every Thursday. Usually, mortality data collected on Thursday include slightly over 80 percent of all deaths over the previous week. This information provides an indication of the number of deaths that can be expected for that week.
Based on the experience from week 12 to week 14, it can be derived that the death certificates are received earlier than usual (as the number of certificates that was received after one week turned out to cover 86 percent of all deaths). The Easter weekend caused some delay in receiving death certificates. According to experience from the three previous years, on average 68 percent of all death certificates was received by CBS on the Thursday following the Easter weekend. The estimate for week 15 is based on the assumption that 74 percent was received so far, since the death certificates do arrive earlier than usual. However, the actual number of deaths in week 15 may be higher or lower as a result of uncertainty. The provisional count for week 14 was 1 percent (61 deaths) higher than the estimate made last week.

Sources