GDP growth rate remains 0.4 percent in Q4 2019
The growth rate is the same as in the first estimate, which was published on 13 February. Growth is mainly due to an increase in investments and consumption.
The second estimate is conducted 90 days after the end of the quarter. The first estimate, which is calculated 45 days after the end of the quarter, is based on the most recent data available at that moment. After the first estimate, more new information about the state of the Dutch economy keeps pouring in, e.g. data about the sectors construction business services, hotels and restaurants, government care and the financial sector. These data are subsequently incorporated into new calculations.
In absolute terms, adjustments in the second estimate relative to the first estimate have averaged 0.1 percentage point over the past half decade, with the two extremes at - 0.3 and + 0.4 percentage points.
Quarter-on-quarter growth Q1 and Q2 2019 adjusted upwards
With each new estimate, CBS also recalculates the seasonally adjusted series of previously published quarters. When the second estimate for Q4 is carried out, the first three quarters are also adjusted on the basis of the most recent data. As a result, the quarter-on-quarter growth in Q1 2019 and Q2 2019 has been adjusted from 0.4 to 0.5 and from 0.4 to 0.3 percent respectively.
Growth relative to Q4 2018 adjusted upwards
Year-on-year, the GDP growth rate in Q4 was 1.6 percent. In the first estimate, the growth rate was 1.5 percent. The growth rates for Q1 and Q2 have been adjusted upwards as well, by 0.1 percentage point. The adjustments are mainly due to an upward adjustment of public consumption. Expenditure by central government and municipalities was higher than previously calculated.
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GDP 1.8 percent up in 2019
Due to the adjustments in Q1, Q2 and Q4 2019, GDP was 1.8 percent up in 2019 versus 1.7 percent according to the first estimate. The adjustments are also due to an upward adjustment of public consumption. Growth in 2019 was due to higher consumption and investments. The trade balance made a negative contribution to GDP growth.
53 thousand new jobs
The second estimate shows that the number of employee and self-employed jobs increased by 53 thousand in Q4 2019 compared to Q3 2019. The first estimate suggested an increase of 48 thousand jobs.
In Q4 2019, the second estimate suggested a growth of 189 thousand employee and self-employed jobs compared to the same quarter in 2018, versus 179 thousand according to the first estimate.
Job figures are adjusted when additional information becomes available. Figures for the first three quarters of 2019 have also been adjusted on the basis of the most recent data. In 2019, the number of employee and self-employed jobs increased by 188 thousand on average.
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The figures for Q4 2019 Q4 and the year 2019 do not yet reflect the effects of the coronavirus outbreak.
- StatLine - GDP, output and expenditures; changes, Quarterly National Accounts
- StatLine - Employment; economic activity, quarterly, National Accounts
- Dossier - Business Cycle