GDP growth rate remains 0.4 percent in Q4 2019

© Hollandse Hoogte / Lex van Lieshout
According to the second estimate conducted by Statistics Netherlands (CBS), gross domestic product (GDP) showed 0.4 percent growth in Q3 2019 relative to Q2 2019. The second GDP estimate is published around 90 days after the end of each quarter.

The growth rate is the same as in the first estimate, which was published on 13 February. Growth is mainly due to an increase in investments and consumption.

GDP (volume), seasonally adjusted (2010=100)
2012Quarter 1100.8
Quarter 2100.9
Quarter 3100.5
Quarter 499.8
2013Quarter 1100.1
Quarter 299.9
Quarter 3100.5
Quarter 4101.1
2014Quarter 1101
Quarter 2101.6
Quarter 3101.9
Quarter 4102.8
2015Quarter 1103.4
Quarter 2103.7
Quarter 3104.1
Quarter 4104.1
2016Quarter 1105.1
Quarter 2105.3
Quarter 3106.5
Quarter 4107.4
2017Quarter 1107.9
Quarter 2108.9
Quarter 3109.7
Quarter 4110.5
2018Quarter 1111.2
Quarter 2111.9
Quarter 3112.2
Quarter 4112.9
2019Quarter 1113.4
Quarter 2113.8
Quarter 3114.2
Quarter 4114.7

Second estimate

The second estimate is conducted 90 days after the end of the quarter. The first estimate, which is calculated 45 days after the end of the quarter, is based on the most recent data available at that moment. After the first estimate, more new information about the state of the Dutch economy keeps pouring in, e.g. data about the sectors construction business services, hotels and restaurants, government care and the financial sector. These data are subsequently incorporated into new calculations.

In absolute terms, adjustments in the second estimate relative to the first estimate have averaged 0.1 percentage point over the past half decade, with the two extremes at - 0.3 and + 0.4 percentage points.

Quarter-on-quarter growth Q1 and Q2 2019 adjusted upwards

With each new estimate, CBS also recalculates the seasonally adjusted series of previously published quarters. When the second estimate for Q4 is carried out, the first three quarters are also adjusted on the basis of the most recent data. As a result, the quarter-on-quarter growth in Q1 2019 and Q2 2019 has been adjusted from 0.4 to 0.5 and from 0.4 to 0.3 percent respectively.

Growth relative to Q4 2018 adjusted upwards

Year-on-year, the GDP growth rate in Q4 was 1.6 percent. In the first estimate, the growth rate was 1.5 percent. The growth rates for Q1 and Q2 have been adjusted upwards as well, by 0.1 percentage point. The adjustments are mainly due to an upward adjustment of public consumption. Expenditure by central government and municipalities was higher than previously calculated.

GDP (volume) (year-on-year % change)
2012Quarter 1-1.1
Quarter 2-0.6
Quarter 3-1.2
Quarter 4-1.2
2013Quarter 1-1.7
Quarter 2-0.5
Quarter 30.3
Quarter 41.4
2014Quarter 11.3
Quarter 21.4
Quarter 31.1
Quarter 41.8
2015Quarter 11.9
Quarter 22.1
Quarter 32.5
Quarter 41.4
2016Quarter 12.1
Quarter 22.3
Quarter 32.1
Quarter 42.2
2017Quarter 13.2
Quarter 23.1
Quarter 32.8
Quarter 42.6
2018Quarter 12.8
Quarter 23
Quarter 32.5
Quarter 42.2
2019Quarter 11.8
Quarter 21.9
Quarter 31.9
Quarter 41.6

GDP 1.8 percent up in 2019

Due to the adjustments in Q1, Q2 and Q4 2019, GDP was 1.8 percent up in 2019 versus 1.7 percent according to the first estimate. The adjustments are also due to an upward adjustment of public consumption. Growth in 2019 was due to higher consumption and investments. The trade balance made a negative contribution to GDP growth.

53 thousand new jobs

The second estimate shows that the number of employee and self-employed jobs increased by 53 thousand in Q4 2019 compared to Q3 2019. The first estimate suggested an increase of 48 thousand jobs.

In Q4 2019, the second estimate suggested a growth of 189 thousand employee and self-employed jobs compared to the same quarter in 2018, versus 179 thousand according to the first estimate.
Job figures are adjusted when additional information becomes available. Figures for the first three quarters of 2019 have also been adjusted on the basis of the most recent data. In 2019, the number of employee and self-employed jobs increased by 188 thousand on average.

Total jobs (seasonally adjusted) (quarter-on-quarter change (1,000))
2012Quarter 1-4
Quarter 2-16
Quarter 3-31
Quarter 4-39
2013Quarter 1-52
Quarter 2-22
Quarter 3-11
Quarter 4-10
2014Quarter 1-12
Quarter 216
Quarter 321
Quarter 430
2015Quarter 138
Quarter 232
Quarter 334
Quarter 440
2016Quarter 115
Quarter 255
Quarter 345
Quarter 448
2017Quarter 150
Quarter 256
Quarter 375
Quarter 472
2018Quarter 166
Quarter 255
Quarter 364
Quarter 448
2019Quarter 144
Quarter 234
Quarter 332
Quarter 453

The figures for Q4 2019 Q4 and the year 2019 do not yet reflect the effects of the coronavirus outbreak.

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