Economic picture slightly less favourable

© Hollandse Hoogte / Ramon van Flymen
According to the CBS Business Cycle Tracer, the economic situation in January is slightly less favourable than in the previous month. Statistics Netherlands (CBS) reports that nine of the thirteen indicators in the Tracer as published mid-January are performing above the level of their long-term trend.

The CBS Business Cycle Tracer is a tool used to monitor the situation and the developments in the Dutch economy. It uses thirteen key macro-economic indicators. Together, these provide a coherent macro-economic picture which is based on CBS figures published over the past month or quarter. It does not represent the situation at the level of individual households, businesses or regions.

Business Cycle Tracer indicator (unweighted average of the indicators in the CBS Business Cycle Tracer) (distance to the long-term trend (=0))
YearMonthcycle
2011January0.11
February0.21
March0.27
April0.32
May0.38
June0.4
July0.39
August0.36
September0.28
October0.19
November0.1
December0.01
2012January-0.04
February-0.09
March-0.13
April-0.16
May-0.23
June-0.29
July-0.35
August-0.46
September-0.54
October-0.62
November-0.74
December-0.85
2013January-0.93
February-1.06
March-1.14
April-1.2
May-1.27
June-1.3
July-1.3
August-1.29
September-1.23
October-1.16
November-1.07
December-0.99
2014January-0.93
February-0.87
March-0.85
April-0.84
May-0.82
June-0.82
July-0.81
August-0.79
September-0.78
October-0.77
November-0.74
December-0.7
2015January-0.65
February-0.6
March-0.54
April-0.49
May-0.43
June-0.38
July-0.34
August-0.3
September-0.27
October-0.26
November-0.24
December-0.23
2016January-0.23
February-0.21
March-0.21
April-0.2
May-0.16
June-0.14
July-0.11
August-0.05
September-0.02
October0.02
November0.08
December0.12
2017January0.16
February0.22
March0.27
April0.31
May0.36
June0.39
July0.42
August0.48
September0.51
October0.55
November0.6
December0.64
2018January0.67
February0.73
March0.77
April0.79
May0.81
June0.82
July0.81
August0.81
September0.8
October0.77
November0.75
December0.71
2019January0.65
February0.61
March0.56
April0.52
May0.5
June0.48
July0.45
August0.41
September0.37
October0.34
November0.3
December0.28
'20January0.27

Consumer confidence equal, producer confidence virtually equal

In December, consumer confidence was the same as in November. Producer confidence in December was also more or less the same as in November. Both consumer and producer confidence are above the long-term average.

Consumer and producer confidence (seasonally adjusted) (average of the component questions)
YearMonthConsumer confidenceProducer confidence
2014January-60.7
February-2-0.1
March11.1
April40.3
May60.7
June60.7
July61.2
August20
September-2-0.2
October12
November-22.4
December-43.4
2015January-22.8
February-12
March71.4
April103.3
May114.1
June144.6
July133.7
August133.5
September113.8
October122.4
November144
December133
2016January113.2
February73.1
March23.9
April64.7
May74.4
June115.4
July95.1
August91.2
September123.4
October174.3
November213.4
December214.7
2017January216
February227
March247.8
April268.3
May236.1
June237.2
July256.6
August265.4
September238.5
October238.2
November229.1
December258.9
2018January2410.3
February2310.9
March249.5
April258.2
May239.8
June237.7
July236.3
August215.9
September195.7
October155.9
November137.2
December97.5
2019January15.8
February-26.3
March-46.1
April-36.7
May-34.7
June03.3
July 23.9
August03.9
September-23.3
October-13.6
November-22.8
December-22.9

Investments, exports and household consumption growing

The total volume of goods exports grew by 4.1 percent in November year-on-year. Growth was lower than in the previous month. In November 2019, exports of petroleum products and machinery increased in particular.

In October, the volume in investments in tangible fixed assets was 5.6 percent up relative to the same month last year. This was mainly due to higher investments in aircraft, machinery and passenger cars.

Dutch consumers spent 1.7 percent more in October 2019 than in October 2018. The growth rate was lower than in the previous month.

Manufacturing output over 1 percent down in November

The average daily output generated by the Dutch manufacturing industry was 1.3 percent down in November 2019 compared to the same month one year previously. The year-on-year decline follows two months of modest output growth.

Number of bankruptcies down

Adjusted for court sesion days, there were 46 fewer corporate bankruptcies in December than in November 2019.The trend has been relatively stable in recent years.

Number of jobs continues to grow

In Q3 2019, the number of full-time and part-time jobs held by employees and self-employed rose by 20 thousand to 10.684 million jobs relative to the previous quarter, an increase of 0.2 percent. Over a period of twelve months, the number of jobs grew by 126 thousand. This is an increase of 1.2 percent.

The number of jobs has grown for over five consecutive years. Since Q2 2014, it has increased by 956 thousand. This job growth peaked in Q3 2017 at over 74 thousand.

The total number of hours worked by employees and self-employed reached a total of 3.4 billion in Q3 2019. When adjusted for seasonal effects, this is 0.5 percent less than in the previous quarter.

At the end of September, the number of job vacancies stood at 288 thousand, up by 4 thousand compared to the previous quarter. There are currently three times more vacancies than at the lowest point in 2013.

Unemployment (according to the ILO definition) rose slightly by an average of 1 thousand per month to 324 thousand in November. This means that 3.5 percent of the labour force were unemployed.

Due to rising unemployment, tension in the labour market has declined slightly. In Q3 2019, there were on average 90 job vacancies per 100 unemployed. In Q2 2019, there were 93 vacancies per 100 unemployed.

GDP (volume), seasonally adjusted (2010=100)
yearquarterindex
2012Quarter 1100.8
Quarter 2100.9
Quarter 3100.5
Quarter 499.8
2013Quarter 1100.1
Quarter 299.9
Quarter 3100.5
Quarter 4101.1
2014Quarter 1101
Quarter 2101.6
Quarter 3101.9
Quarter 4102.8
2015Quarter 1103.4
Quarter 2103.7
Quarter 3104.1
Quarter 4104.1
2016Quarter 1105.1
Quarter 2105.3
Quarter 3106.5
Quarter 4107.4
2017Quarter 1107.9
Quarter 2108.9
Quarter 3109.7
Quarter 4110.5
2018Quarter 1111.2
Quarter 2111.9
Quarter 3112.2
Quarter 4112.8
2019Quarter 1113.3
Quarter 2113.7
Quarter 3114.2

0.4 percent GDP growth in Q3 2019

According to the second estimate of GDP conducted by CBS, gross domestic product (GDP) rose by 0.4 percent in Q3 2019 relative to the previous quarter. Growth was mainly due to the trade balance and government consumption. GDP grew by 1.9 percent relative to Q3 2018.

On Thursday 13 February 2020, CBS will publish the first estimate of GDP and employment over Q4 2019. In addition, the annual figures over 2019 will be published.

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