Economic picture slightly less favourable
The CBS Business Cycle Tracer is a tool used to monitor the situation and the developments in the Dutch economy. It uses thirteen key macro-economic indicators. Together, these provide a coherent macro-economic picture which is based on CBS figures published over the past month or quarter. It does not represent the situation at the level of individual households, businesses or regions.
|Year||Month||cycle (distance to the long-term trend (=0))|
Consumer confidence equal, producer confidence virtually equal
In December, consumer confidence was the same as in November. Producer confidence in December was also more or less the same as in November. Both consumer and producer confidence are above the long-term average.
|Year||Month||Consumer confidence (average of the component questions)||Producer confidence (average of the component questions)|
Investments, exports and household consumption growing
The total volume of goods exports grew by 4.1 percent in November year-on-year. Growth was lower than in the previous month. In November 2019, exports of petroleum products and machinery increased in particular.
In October, the volume in investments in tangible fixed assets was 5.6 percent up relative to the same month last year. This was mainly due to higher investments in aircraft, machinery and passenger cars.
Dutch consumers spent 1.7 percent more in October 2019 than in October 2018. The growth rate was lower than in the previous month.
Manufacturing output over 1 percent down in November
The average daily output generated by the Dutch manufacturing industry was 1.3 percent down in November 2019 compared to the same month one year previously. The year-on-year decline follows two months of modest output growth.
Number of bankruptcies down
Adjusted for court session days, there were 46 fewer corporate bankruptcies in December than in November 2019.The trend has been relatively stable in recent years.
Number of jobs continues to grow
In Q3 2019, the number of full-time and part-time jobs held by employees and self-employed rose by 20 thousand to 10.684 million jobs relative to the previous quarter, an increase of 0.2 percent. Over a period of twelve months, the number of jobs grew by 126 thousand. This is an increase of 1.2 percent.
The number of jobs has grown for over five consecutive years. Since Q2 2014, it has increased by 956 thousand. This job growth peaked in Q3 2017 at over 74 thousand.
The total number of hours worked by employees and self-employed reached a total of 3.4 billion in Q3 2019. When adjusted for seasonal effects, this is 0.5 percent less than in the previous quarter.
At the end of September, the number of job vacancies stood at 288 thousand, up by 4 thousand compared to the previous quarter. There are currently three times more vacancies than at the lowest point in 2013.
Unemployment (according to the ILO definition) rose slightly by an average of 1 thousand per month to 324 thousand in November. This means that 3.5 percent of the labour force were unemployed.
Due to rising unemployment, tension in the labour market has declined slightly. In Q3 2019, there were on average 90 job vacancies per 100 unemployed. In Q2 2019, there were 93 vacancies per 100 unemployed.
0.4 percent GDP growth in Q3 2019
According to the second estimate of GDP conducted by CBS, gross domestic product (GDP) rose by 0.4 percent in Q3 2019 relative to the previous quarter. Growth was mainly due to the trade balance and government consumption. GDP grew by 1.9 percent relative to Q3 2018.
On Thursday 13 February 2020, CBS will publish the first estimate of GDP and employment over Q4 2019. In addition, the annual figures over 2019 will be published.
- Dossier - Business Cycle