Forecast: 19 million inhabitants in 2039

The population forecast aims to describe the most likely future development of the Dutch population. In this forecast, CBS uses a simulation model which uses research assumptions regarding births, deaths, immigration and emigration as the basis for projections.

The forecast figures are subject to uncertainties. For example, the number of migrants may fluctuate sharply from year to year. It is also uncertain whether the average life span will continue to rise at the same pace and whether Dutch households will keep their preference for having two children. In all likelihood, the population will reach between 18.1 and 21.2 million by 2060.

Growth due to migration

According to the forecast, the population will grow by 105 thousand per year on average over the next decade. By the year 2030, it is expected to have grown by 1 million. The larger part of this growth is attributable to more people immigrating than emigrating. Until 2030, an average 296 thousand immigrants per year are expected to arrive in the Netherlands, while 214 thousand emigrants are expected to leave the country. These are partly former immigrants leaving again. In this case, the expected annual migration balance is 82 thousand on average, 27 thousand up on the period 2010-2019.

Furthermore, births will exceed deaths over the next decade. According to the forecast, the number of live births will rise by an average 185 thousand per year between 2019 and 2030. Due to an ageing population, mortality will go up as well, by 163 thousand on average during this period. Further population growth is expected after 2030, but at a slower pace. Emigration will continue to rise and from 2039 onwards, deaths will exceed births.

Twice as many people over the age of 80

The number of over-80s is projected to increase from 0.8 million at the end 2019 to 1.2 million in 2030. An expected 1.6 million will be reached in 2040, i.e. double the current number. According to the forecast, the number will then go up to nearly 2.1 million at the most around 2053 before declining again.

The group of 65 to 79-year-olds currently comprises 2.6 million persons. This number is likely to hit 3 million by the year 2029. After this, it is expected to grow to nearly 3.3 million around 2038, after which a decline is anticipated. The increase in the number of elderly people is not only due to the post-war baby boom but also to higher life expectancy, which is expected to rise even further. The share of over-65s in the population will rise from 19 percent at the end of 2019 to just under 26 percent at the highest around 2040.

Fewer 20 to 64-year-olds

It is expected that the number of 20 to 64-year-olds will increase from 10.2 million currently to 10.5 million in 2025. The number is projected to decline after 2025, to 10.1 million around 2040, after which it will probably go up again to 10.6 million in 2060. It is likely that the number of 0 to 19-year-olds will continue to fluctuate around 4 million in the future. This is approximately 21 percent of the population.

Population in 2060: 931 thousand inhabitants more than in previous forecast

Population forecasts are adjusted on an annual basis, in line with the latest developments and new insights. Compared to the forecast in 2018, adjustments have been made mainly in the area of migration and births. In the future, not only immigration is expected to rise; the number of emigrants will go up as well. According to the new forecast, the expected number of children over the long-term will go down from 1.75 to 1.70 per woman.

As a result of the adjustments, the current forecast projects a higher number of inhabitants for the year 2060 than the previous forecast (+931 thousand). The number of 20 to 64-year-olds will be higher in particular: by 600 thousand. This is because the current forecast assumes more immigration than the previous one.