Economic situation improves slightly

© Hollandse Hoogte
According to the CBS Business Cycle Tracer, the economic situation has improved slightly in December compared to one month previously. Statistics Netherlands (CBS) reports that all indicators in the Tracer published mid-December are performing above the level of their long-term trend.

Statistics Netherlands’ Business Cycle Tracer is a tool used to monitor the economic situation and economic developments. It uses thirteen key macro-economic indicators, which - together - provide a coherent macro-economic picture of the state of the Dutch economy as published by CBS during the last month or quarter.

Business cycle tracer indicator (unweighted average of the indicators in the Business Cycle Tracer)
 cycle
2010 J-0.6
2010 F-0.58
2010 M-0.54
2010 A-0.47
2010 M-0.43
2010 J-0.38
2010 J-0.32
2010 A-0.27
2010 S-0.2
2010 O-0.13
2010 N-0.04
2010 D0.04
2011 J0.11
2011 F0.19
2011 M0.25
2011 A0.28
2011 M0.33
2011 J0.34
2011 J0.32
2011 A0.3
2011 S0.24
2011 O0.15
2011 N0.07
2011 D-0.01
2012 J-0.06
2012 F-0.11
2012 M-0.14
2012 A-0.17
2012 M-0.24
2012 J-0.3
2012 J-0.36
2012 A-0.46
2012 S-0.53
2012 O-0.59
2012 N-0.71
2012 D-0.79
2013 J-0.88
2013 F-1
2013 M-1.08
2013 A-1.14
2013 M-1.22
2013 J-1.25
2013 J-1.25
2013 A-1.25
2013 S-1.2
2013 O-1.13
2013 N-1.06
2013 D-0.98
2014 J-0.92
2014 F-0.85
2014 M-0.82
2014 A-0.8
2014 M-0.77
2014 J-0.75
2014 J-0.73
2014 A-0.69
2014 S-0.68
2014 O-0.66
2014 N-0.63
2014 D-0.59
2015 J-0.55
2015 F-0.48
2015 M-0.42
2015 A-0.36
2015 M-0.29
2015 J-0.23
2015 J-0.18
2015 A-0.13
2015 S-0.08
2015 O-0.07
2015 N-0.03
2015 D-0.01
2016 J0
2016 F0.04
2016 M0.07
2016 A0.1
2016 M0.17
2016 J0.21
2016 J0.25
2016 A0.33
2016 S0.38
2016 O0.43
2016 N0.53
2016 D0.59
2017 J0.65
2017 F0.76
2017 M0.83
2017 A0.88
2017 M0.99
2017 J1.04
2017 J1.09
2017 A1.19
2017 S1.24
2017 O1.29
2017 N1.37
2017 D1.4

Mood among consumers and manufacturers improves

The mood among Dutch consumers has improved marginally in December. Opinions of Dutch consumers on the economic climate and the willingness to buy have improved.

Confidence among Dutch manufacturers reached its highest level since February 2008 in November. Both producer and consumer confidence are far above the level of their long-term average.

Consumer and producer confidence (seasonally adjusted)
 Consumer confidenceProducer confidence
2011 J-42.5
2011 F01.5
2011 M15.7
2011 A-24.3
2011 M-42.7
2011 J-61.7
2011 J-8-2.2
2011 A-16-3.2
2011 S-27-0.5
2011 O-34-3.1
2011 N-35-4.8
2011 D-36-1.3
2012 J-37-1.8
2012 F-36-1.7
2012 M-36-2.8
2012 A-32-3.4
2012 M-34-4.9
2012 J-37-4.8
2012 J-33-5.4
2012 A-31-4.7
2012 S-28-6.6
2012 O-29-7.6
2012 N-33-6.8
2012 D-38-5.6
2013 J-37-5.6
2013 F-41-3.7
2013 M-41-5.1
2013 A-37-5.6
2013 M-32-4.1
2013 J-33-3.8
2013 J-35-3.1
2013 A-32-1.4
2013 S-31-2.4
2013 O-26-0.3
2013 N-16-0.3
2013 D-110.1
2014 J-60.7
2014 F-2-0.1
2014 M11.1
2014 A40.3
2014 M60.7
2014 J60.7
2014 J51.2
2014 A20
2014 S-2-0.2
2014 O12
2014 N-22.4
2014 D-43.4
2015 J-22.8
2015 F-12
2015 M71.4
2015 A103.3
2015 M114.1
2015 J144.6
2015 J133.7
2015 A133.5
2015 S113.8
2015 O122.4
2015 N144
2015 D133
2016 J113.2
2016 F63.1
2016 M23.9
2016 A64.7
2016 M74.4
2016 J115.4
2016 J95.1
2016 A91.2
2016 S123.4
2016 O174.3
2016 N213.4
2016 D214.7
2016 J216
2016 F227
2016 M247.8
2016 A268.3
2016 M236.1
2016 J237.2
2016 J256.6
2016 A265.4
2016 S238.5
2016 O238.2
2016 N239.1
2016 D25

Exports, household consumption and investments up

The volume of investments in tangible fixed assets was 8.3 percent up in October 2017 relative to the same month last year. Year-on-year growth is higher than in the previous month. Investments in residential property, machinery and passenger cars in particular were up again.

The total volume of goods exports grew by 5.2 percent in October 2017 relative to October 2016. Growth was lower than in September, when exports were 7.3 percent up year-on-year. In October, exports of machinery, appliances and cars increased most notably.

Dutch household consumption was 1.7 percent up in October 2017 over October 2016. The growth rate is lower than in the previous months. Consumers mainly spent more on services and home furnishing articles. Spending on natural gas was significantly lower.

Manufacturing output 4 percent up in October

Average daily output generated by the Dutch manufacturing industry was 4.0 percent up in October 2017 compared to the same month last year. The growth rate was lower than in September.Manufacturing output has continually shown year-on-year growth for two consecutive years, most notably in the transport equipment industry.

Slightly fewer bankruptcies in November

The number of corporate bankruptcies has decreased. There were 8 fewer bankruptcies in November than in October 2017. This decrease comes after a rise in September and October.

Unemployment drops below 400 thousand

For the first time since September 2009, unemployment has fallen to below 400 thousand. The number of unemployed stood at 397 thousand in November 2017. The average decline in the past three months was 10 thousand per month.

Labour market improves further

The number of jobs held by employees and self-employed saw quarter-on-quarter growth of 48 thousand in Q3 2017 to an average of 10.2 million jobs (including both full-time and part-time jobs).

Turnover temp agencies continues to rise

Turnover generated by temping agencies, employment agencies and payroll companies grew by 1.0 percent in Q3 2017 relative to Q2 2017. This growth is lower than in the preceding quarter. The total number of temp hours also increased again.

GDP growth 0.4 percent in Q3 2017

Gross domestic product (GDP) rose by 0.4 percent in Q3 2017 relative to Q2 2017 as shown in the second estimate of GDP conducted by CBS. Growth is widely supported; investments, consumption and exports were higher. The GDP growth rate was 3.0 percent in Q3 2017 compared to Q3 2016.

On Wednesday 14 February 2018, CBS will publish the first estimate of GDP and employment in Q4 2017 and for the year 2017.

Sources