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According to the latest forecast, life expectancy in the year 2023 will be lower than was foreseen previously in the 2016 forecast (20.7 years). This is due to the fact that the new forecast is based on updated mortality figures. There were more deaths over the last four months of 2016 and first eight months of 2017 than were expected in the previous forecast. Such fluctuations in actual mortality influence life expectancy slightly on a yearly basis.
Life expectancy at age 65, observations and forecasts
The annual CBS population forecast aims to describe the most likely future demographic developments for the Netherlands. One aspect of this is the life expectancy forecast. For this, CBS uses a model which has been developed in the international scientific community. The model is based on the expectation that the steady declining trend in mortality across western Europe will continue in the long term , and this implies that short-term acceleration and deceleration in mortality have a less adverse effect on forecasts than when based solely on the Dutch trend. CBS indicates uncertainties around the life expectancy forecast by calculating forecast intervals (see the above graph). These give an impression of the expected accuracy of the forecast.
AOW legislation uses CBS forecast
The CBS population forecast is used to determine the future state pension (AOW) entitlement age as laid down in the General Old Age Pensions Act (Algemene Ouderdomswet, Section 7a). The Dutch government decided in November 2016 to raise this entitlement age to 67 years and 3 months as per 2022. The newly released forecast of life expectancy at age 65 in 2023 is used to determine the AOW entitlement age as per 2023.