Economic situation hardly changes

© Hollandse Hoogte
According to the CBS Business Cycle Tracer, the economic situation is more or less the same in September compared to one month previously. Statistics Netherlands (CBS) reports that all indicators in the Tracer published mid-September are performing above the level of their long-term trend.

Statistics Netherlands’ Business Cycle Tracer is a tool used to monitor the economic situation and economic developments. It uses thirteen key macro-economic indicators, which - together - provide a coherent picture of the state of the Dutch economy as published by CBS during the last month or quarter.

Business cycle tracer indicator (unweighted average of the indicators in the Business Cycle Tracer)
 cycle
2010 J-0.61
2010 F-0.58
2010 M-0.55
2010 A-0.48
2010 M-0.43
2010 J-0.39
2010 J-0.33
2010 A-0.28
2010 S-0.21
2010 O-0.14
2010 N-0.05
2010 D0.03
2011 J0.1
2011 F0.19
2011 M0.24
2011 A0.27
2011 M0.32
2011 J0.33
2011 J0.32
2011 A0.3
2011 S0.23
2011 O0.14
2011 N0.06
2011 D-0.01
2012 J-0.06
2012 F-0.11
2012 M-0.14
2012 A-0.17
2012 M-0.24
2012 J-0.3
2012 J-0.36
2012 A-0.46
2012 S-0.53
2012 O-0.59
2012 N-0.7
2012 D-0.79
2013 J-0.87
2013 F-0.99
2013 M-1.08
2013 A-1.14
2013 M-1.21
2013 J-1.24
2013 J-1.24
2013 A-1.24
2013 S-1.19
2013 O-1.12
2013 N-1.04
2013 D-0.96
2014 J-0.89
2014 F-0.83
2014 M-0.79
2014 A-0.77
2014 M-0.74
2014 J-0.72
2014 J-0.7
2014 A-0.66
2014 S-0.64
2014 O-0.62
2014 N-0.58
2014 D-0.55
2015 J-0.5
2015 F-0.43
2015 M-0.37
2015 A-0.31
2015 M-0.24
2015 J-0.17
2015 J-0.12
2015 A-0.06
2015 S-0.01
2015 O0.01
2015 N0.05
2015 D0.08
2016 J0.1
2016 F0.14
2016 M0.17
2016 A0.2
2016 M0.28
2016 J0.33
2016 J0.37
2016 A0.46
2016 S0.51
2016 O0.57
2016 N0.68
2016 D0.75
2017 J0.82
2017 F0.94
2017 M1
2017 A1.06
2017 M1.15
2017 J1.2
2017 J1.23
2017 A1.31
2017 S1.35

Manufacturers and consumers positive

The consumer confidence indicator declined in September. Opinions of Dutch consumers on the economic climate deteriorated. Willingness to buy remained more or less stable.

Confidence among Dutch manufacturers again deteriorated in August. Manufacturers were mainly less positive about their order books. However, producer and consumer confidence are both far above the level of their long-term average.

Consumer and producer confidence (seasonally adjusted)
 Consumer confidenceProducer confidence
2011 J-42.5
2011 F01.5
2011 M15.7
2011 A-24.3
2011 M-42.7
2011 J-61.7
2011 J-8-2.2
2011 A-16-3.2
2011 S-27-0.5
2011 O-34-3.1
2011 N-35-4.8
2011 D-36-1.3
2012 J-37-1.8
2012 F-36-1.7
2012 M-36-2.8
2012 A-32-3.4
2012 M-34-4.9
2012 J-37-4.8
2012 J-33-5.4
2012 A-31-4.7
2012 S-28-6.6
2012 O-29-7.6
2012 N-33-6.8
2012 D-38-5.6
2013 J-37-5.6
2013 F-41-3.7
2013 M-41-5.1
2013 A-37-5.6
2013 M-32-4.1
2013 J-33-3.8
2013 J-35-3.1
2013 A-32-1.4
2013 S-31-2.4
2013 O-26-0.3
2013 N-16-0.3
2013 D-110.1
2014 J-60.7
2014 F-2-0.1
2014 M11.1
2014 A40.3
2014 M60.7
2014 J60.7
2014 J51.2
2014 A20
2014 S-2-0.2
2014 O12
2014 N-22.4
2014 D-43.4
2015 J-22.8
2015 F-12
2015 M71.4
2015 A103.3
2015 M114.1
2015 J144.6
2015 J133.7
2015 A133.5
2015 S113.8
2015 O122.4
2015 N144
2015 D133
2016 J113.2
2016 F63.1
2016 M23.9
2016 A64.7
2016 M74.4
2016 J115.4
2016 J95.1
2016 A91.2
2016 S123.4
2016 O174.3
2016 N213.4
2016 D214.7
2016 J216
2016 F227
2016 M247.8
2016 A268.3
2016 M236.1
2016 J237.2
2016 J256.6
2016 A265.4
2016 S23

Exports, household consumption and investments up

The volume of investments in tangible fixed assets was over 9 percent up in July 2017 relative to the same month last year. This is mainly due to higher investments in airplanes, residential property, machinery and passenger cars.

The total volume of goods exports grew by nearly 7 percent in July 2017 compared to the same month one year previously. In July, exports of (electrotechnical) machinery, appliances and cars increased most notably. Both exports of goods produced in the Netherlands and re-exports were higher in volume than one year previously.

Dutch consumer spending was nearly 3 percent up in July 2017 year-on-year. Consumers mainly spent more on home furnishing articles.

Manufacturing output up in July

The average daily output generated by the Dutch manufacturing industry was 3 percent up in July 2017 from July 2016. The growth rate was slightly lower than in June. The strongest growth was seen in the electrotechnical equipment industry.

Lowest number of bankruptcies after 2000

The number of corporate bankruptcies has declined further. There were 39 fewer bankruptcies in August than in July 2017. The number of bankruptcies reached its lowest level in this century.

Labour market improves further

The number of jobs held by employees and self-employed rose by 53 thousand in Q2 2017 relative to Q1 2017. The number of job vacancies grew by 20 thousand in Q2 2017, the most substantial quarterly increase in over 10 years.

Unemployment (ILO definition) amounted to 426 thousand in Q2. This number declined by 10 thousand per month on average over the past three months. The unemployment rate stood at 4.7 percent.

Turnover temp agencies continues to rise

Turnover generated by temping agencies, employment agencies and payroll companies grew by 2.0 percent in Q2 2017 relative to Q1 2017. This growth is higher than in the preceding quarter. The total number of temp hours increased by over 4 percent, the highest increase since Q2 2007.

Gross Domestic Product (volume, seasonally adjusted)
 Index
2010 I100.4
2010 II101
2010 III101.3
2010 IV102.6
2011 I103.3
2011 II103.2
2011 III103.2
2011 IV102.4
2012 I102.3
2012 II102.3
2012 III101.9
2012 IV101.2
2013 I101.5
2013 II101.3
2013 III101.9
2013 IV102.5
2014 I102.3
2014 II102.9
2014 III103.3
2014 IV104.5
2015 I105.3
2015 II105.3
2015 III105.7
2015 IV106.1
2015 I106.9
2015 II107.3
2015 III108.2
2015 IV109
2015 I109.7
2015 II111.4

GDP growth 1.5 percent in Q2 2017

Gross domestic product (GDP) rose by 1.5 percent in Q2 2017 relative to Q1 2017 as shown in the second estimate of GDP conducted by CBS. Exports and household consumption were the main contributors to economic growth. Investments also grew. The GDP growth rate was 3.3 percent in Q2 2017 compared to Q2 2016.

On Tuesday 14 November 2017, CBS will publish the first estimate of GDP and employment in Q3 2017.

Sources