Economic growth 0.5 percent in Q1 2016

The second estimate on economic growth released by Statistics Netherlands (CBS) shows that the Dutch economy grew by 0.5 percent in Q1 2016 relative to Q4 2015. The growth figure is the same as in the first estimate published on 13 May. The picture of the economy remains unchanged. The growth in Q1 is broadly-based; consumption, investments and exports all made a positive contribution.

First estimate

The first estimate - released 45 days after the end of a quarter - is based on the most recent data available at that moment. After the first estimate, information about the state of the Dutch economy is continually pouring in, e.g. about the sectors business services, construction and hotels and restaurants. Subsequently, these data are incorporated in new calculations. In absolute terms, the adjustment of the second estimate relative to the first estimate was 0.1 percentage point over the past half decade, with the two extremes ranging between - 0.3 and + 0.4 percentage points.

Marginal adjustment previous quarters

With each new estimate, CBS also recalculates the seasonally adjusted series of previously published quarters. Quarter-on-quarter growth of previous quarters may be adjusted marginally. The first, second and fourth quarter of 2015, for example, were each adjusted downwards by 0.1 percent.

Growth relative to Q1 2015

Dutch economic growth was 1.5 percent in Q1 2016, versus 1.4 percent according to the first estimate. As a result of new or adjusted source information, net exports, household consumption and investments were adjusted upwards.

Annual figures

Simultaneously with the publication of the second estimate over Q1 2016, revised annual figures over 2013, 2014 and 2015 are published. The status of the figures over 2013 and 2014 becomes final, figures over 2015 are (provisionally) final. On the basis of the most recent data, the economic growth rates for these years were adjusted: in 2013 from - 0.5 to - 0.2 percent and in 2014 from 1.0 to 1.4 percent. The growth rate for 2015 remains stable at 2.0 percent.

13 thousand new jobs

The second estimate shows that the number of employee and self-employed jobs increased by 13 thousand in Q1 2016 compared to Q4 2015. The sharpest growth was recorded in the sector business services (10 thousand) and in trade, transport and hotels and restaurants (7 thousand). In the sector health care and welfare, 5 thousand jobs were lost. On the basis of the most recent information available at that moment, the first estimate suggested that the number of jobs declined by 12 thousand in Q1.

In the second estimate over Q1 2016, the number of employee and self-employed jobs was 112 thousand up from the same quarter in 2015, versus 99 thousand according to the first estimate.


Sources

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