Second estimate: Dutch economy growing slightly faster than previously estimated

24/09/2014 15:00

The second estimate of economic growth - published by Statistics Netherlands today - shows that Dutch economic growth was 0.7 percent higher in the second quarter than in the first quarter. The flash estimate released on 14 August stated an economic growth rate of 0.5 percent. The upward adjustment of 0.2 of a percentage point can be accounted for by small upward adjustments in household consumption and fixed capital formation. The overall picture of the economy remains unchanged. Dutch economic growth is mainly driven by exports.

The flash estimate is a preliminary calculation, 45 days after the end of the quarter, based on information available at that time. After this first estimate, more and new information about the Dutch economy continues to become available. For example, additional information from companies in the business services, construction, and hotels and restaurants sectors. This information contributed to second estimate being higher than the first estimate. On average, the difference between the second estimate and the flash estimate was 0.06 of a percentage point in the last five years, ranging from -0.3 to +0.4 of a percentage point.

Adjustment for seasonal effects

For each new estimate of economic growth, Statistics Netherlands calculates new seasonally adjusted figures for all previously published quarters. As a result, quarter-on-quarter changes of previously published quarters may also be adjusted. The negative growth in the first quarter of 2014, for example, has been revised from -0.4 to -0.3 percent.

Year-on-year growth

Compared with the same quarter last year, the economy grew by 1.1 percent in the second quarter. According to the flash estimate this was 0.9 percent. This upward adjustment was mainly the result of higher figures for household consumption and investment in construction. The trade balance (exports minus imports) was revised slightly downwards. Government consumption was also lower than previously estimated. 

Decrease in jobs smaller than previously published

New information has also resulted in revised figures for the number of jobs. According to the second estimate, there were one thousand fewer jobs of employees in the second quarter of 2014 than in the first quarter. According to the flash estimate the decrease was 8 thousand jobs. Compared with the second quarter of 2013, there were 70 thousand fewer jobs according to the second estimate. The flash estimate put the year-on-year decrease at 80 thousand.