The number of people aged 65 years and older in the Dutch population will increase by nearly 400 thousand in the period 2008–2013. The number of school-age children will decrease, just as the number of people in their thirties. The total population will grow by more than 200 thousand to 16.6 million, according to the newest short-term population forecasts of Statistics Netherlands.
Over-65s account for 17 percent in 2013
At the moment 2.4 million people in the Netherlands are older than 65. By the beginning of 2013 this is expected to have risen to 2.8 million. The share of over-65s will increase from 15 percent to 17 percent in the space of the next five years.
In the same period, the share of the potential labour force, the 20-64 year-olds, will decrease from 61 to 60 percent. Today there are an average 4.2 people in the labour force for every person aged over 65. In 2013 this will probably have dropped to 3.6 persons.
More just-over-65’s in particular
Just over half of the increase in the number of over-65s will be in the group younger than 70 years. Their number will grow by more than 210 thousand to 2013. This group is set to increase strongly as the post-war baby boom generation reaches retirement age from 2011. The number of people in their seventies will rise by 90 thousand, the number of over-80s by 80 thousand.
Old people by age
Ageing labour force
At the moment, 32 percent of the 20–64 year-olds in the Netherlands are 50 years or older. In 2013 this is expected to be 34 percent, an increase of 160 thousand people. The increase will mainly be at the expense of people in their thirties. Their share in the potential labour force will decrease from 23 to 20 percent, a decrease of 280 thousand persons.
Potential labour force by age
Fewer primary school children
The number of children (0-19 years) will fall by 100 thousand in the next five years. The decrease will be strongest for primary school ages. The number of 4-12 year-olds will be more than 60 thousand lower in 2013. This is a consequence of the drop in the number of births since the turn of the century. The number of children younger than 4 years of age will fall by some 30 thousand. The number of teenagers aged 13-19 years will hardly change in the next five years.
Children by age
Coen van Duin