Cautious recovery in sector hotels and restaurants

27/12/2004 10:00

Since June 2004 the sector hotels and restaurants is doing slightly better. Turnover is somewhat improving after an uninterrupted series of turnover cuts since the end of 2002.

Reduced turnovers, more bankruptcies

Pubs and hotels in particular went through a difficult period. Sales dropped by approximately 5 percent over the past two years. Turnover of snack bars, on the other hand, increased by 0.4 percent since the third quarter of 2002.

The decline in the sector hotels and restaurants is also borne out by an increase in bankruptcies. At the beginning of 2004 nearly thirty enterprises in this sector went bankrupt every month, whereas at the beginning of 2002 the monthly average was just over ten.

In June this year sales reached a low, more than 5 percent below the level of the first months of 2002. Subsequently, turnover started to pick up somewhat. Sales improved marginally and the number of bankruptcies pronounced dropped compared to early 2004.

Turnover and bankruptcies in the sector hotels and restaurants

Turnover and bankruptcies in the sector hotels and restaurants

Relation between turnover and consumer confidence

There is a link between year-on-year changes in sales in the sector hotels and restaurants and consumer confidence. In a period of growing consumer confidence, turnover tends to increase as well, though the relation is sometimes weak, for instance, in the early 1990s. In 2002 the marginal relation between turnover and consumer confidence could be accounted for by huge price rises, resulting in an initial increase in turnover.

Consumer confidence and year-on-year changes turnover hotels and restaurants

Consumer confidence and year-on-year changes turnover hotels and restaurants

Upward trend consumer confidence stalls

The upward trend in consumer confidence is currently coming to a standstill. Since August consumer confidence has fallen for the fourth month on the trot. The number of bankruptcies is also rising marginally. If these facts are taken into account, it is uncertain whether the recovery will continue.

Bastiaan Rooijakkers