Economic picture slightly more negative in March

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© ANP / Paulien van de Loo Photography

The economic picture was slightly more negative in March than in February, according to the CBS Business Cycle Tracer. In the Tracer for March, 9 of the 13 indicators were below their long-term trend.

The CBS Business Cycle Tracer is a tool used to monitor the state of the Dutch economy. It provides an overall macroeconomic picture of the past month or quarter based on all the figures published by Statistics Netherlands (CBS). This picture will still vary between households, enterprises or regions, however.

Business Cycle Tracer indicator (unweighted average of the indicators, excluding GDP, in the CBS Business Cycle Tracer)
YearMonthcycle (distance to the long-term trend (=0))
2022April0.88
2022May0.88
2022June0.9
2022July0.95
2022August0.93
2022September0.92
2022October0.89
2022November0.83
2022December0.79
2023January0.72
2023February0.68
2023March0.63
2023April0.53
2023May0.46
2023June0.36
2023July0.22
2023August0.11
2023September0
2023October-0.13
2023November-0.21
2023December-0.29
2024January-0.37
2024February-0.4
2024March-0.42
2024April-0.46
2024May-0.46
2024June-0.46
2024July-0.49
2024August-0.47
2024September-0.45
2024October-0.45
2024November-0.41
2024December-0.38
2025January-0.4
2025February-0.39
2025March-0.4
2025April-0.45
2025May-0.46
2025June-0.47
2025July-0.49
2025August-0.47
2025September-0.46
2025October-0.47
2025November-0.45
2025December-0.45
2026January-0.5
2026February-0.51
2026March-0.53

Consumers more negative, producers less negative

Consumers were more negative in March than they were in February, while producers were less negative. Producer confidence was above the average for the past twenty years, while consumer confidence was below it.

Consumer and producer confidence (seasonally adjusted)
YearMonthConsumer confidence (average of the component questions)Producer confidence (average of the component questions)
2022April-487.2
2022May-475.8
2022June-504.2
2022July -515.3
2022August-542.4
2022September-591.2
2022October-590.9
2022November-571.1
2022December-521
2023January-491.1
2023February-440.9
2023March-390.9
2023April-37-0.3
2023May-38-1.7
2023June-39-2.7
2023July-39-2.7
2023August-40-4.6
2023September-39-3.9
2023October-38-3.7
2023November-33-2.6
2023December-29-5.7
2014January-28-4.4
2014February-27-4.2
2014March-22-4.8
2014April-21-3.6
2014May-22-2.8
2014June-23-2.4
2014July-24-2.7
2014August-24-1.9
2014September-21-1.7
2014October-22-3.2
2014November-25-1.8
2014December-26-1.6
2025January-28-1.6
2025February-32-1.2
2025March-34-1.5
2025April-37-3.3
2025May-37-3.9
2025June-36-5
2025July-32-4.9
2025August-32-3.3
2025September-32-1.6
2025October-27-0.8
2025November-21-1.7
2025December-21-1.1
2026January-230.8
2026February-24-1.1
2026March-30-0.7

Exports up, household consumption unchanged, investment down

In January 2025, the total volume of goods exported (adjusted for the number of working days) was up by 1.1 percent, year on year. Export volumes were higher for minerals, textiles and clothing.

Household spending in January 2026 was the same as it was in January 2025, adjusted for price changes and the shopping-day pattern. This applied to both goods and services.

In January 2025, the volume of investment in tangible fixed assets was down by 1.4 percent year on year. A month earlier, the decline stood at 2.3 percent. This was mainly due to less investment in buildings, passenger cars and infrastructure.

Manufacturing output over 1 percent higher in January, year on year

In January 2025, the calendar-adjusted output of the Dutch manufacturing sector was 1.1 percent higher than it was in January 2024, After adjusting for seasonal and calendar effects, manufacturing output rose by 0.4 percent relative to December.

More bankruptcies in February

Adjusted for the number of court session days, there were 40 more bankruptcies in February than in January, an increase of 17 percent.

House prices up by over 5 percent in February, year on year

The average price of an owner-occupied home (excluding newbuild homes) was up by 5.4 percent in February 2026, year on year. Prices in February rose by 0.1 percent relative to January.

Fewer hours worked, fewer vacancies, unemployment up

There were 416 thousand unemployed persons in February. Unemployment has risen by an average of three thousand per month over the past three months. This means that 4.1 percent of the labour force (aged 15 to 74 years) were unemployed.

In Q4 2025, employees and self-employed persons worked over 3.7 billion hours in total. Adjusted for seasonal effects, this was down by 0.1 percent from Q3.

The number of vacancies decreased by 7 thousand to 380 thousand in the fourth quarter of 2025. The number of vacancies has fallen in almost every quarter for three consecutive years.

In Q4 2025, the turnover of temporary employment and job placement agencies was 0.4 percent higher, year on year.

Economic growth of 0.5 percent in Q4 2025

According to the second estimate carried out by Statistics Netherlands (CBS), gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 0.5 percent in Q4 2025 relative to Q3 2025. This growth was mainly attributable to the trade balance.

GDP (volume), seasonally adjusted
YearQuarterIndex (2021=100)
2022Quarter 1103.2
2022Quarter 2105.6
2022Quarter 3105.7
2022Quarter 4105.5
2023Quarter 1105
2023Quarter 2104.6
2023Quarter 3103.9
2023Quarter 4104.2
2024Quarter 1104.3
2024Quarter 2105.4
2024Quarter 3106
2024Quarter 4106.4
2025Quarter 1106.7
2025Quarter 2107.1
2025Quarter 3107.6
2025Quarter 4108.2