Economic picture remains equally negative

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© CBS / Nikki van Toorn
The economic picture remained equally negative in August as in July, according to the CBS Business Cycle Tracer. In the Tracer for August, 11 out of the 13 indicators were below their long-term trend.

The CBS Business Cycle Tracer is a tool used to monitor the state of the Dutch economy. It provides an overall macroeconomic picture of the past month or quarter, based on all figures published by CBS. This picture will still vary between households, enterprises or regions, however.

Business Cycle Tracer indicator (unweighted average of the indicators, excluding GDP, in the CBS Business Cycle Tracer)
YearMonthcycle (distance to the long-term trend (=0))
2021September0.58
2021October0.67
2021November0.7
2021December0.73
2022January0.79
2022February0.79
2022March0.81
2022April0.86
2022May0.86
2022June0.88
2022July0.93
2022August0.91
2022September0.9
2022October0.87
2022November0.81
2022December0.77
2023January0.69
2023February0.64
2023March0.6
2023April0.48
2023May0.4
2023June0.31
2023July0.15
2023August0.04
2023September-0.06
2023October-0.2
2023November-0.28
2023December-0.36
2024January-0.45
2024February-0.49
2024March-0.51
2024April-0.56
2024May-0.56
2024June-0.56
2024July-0.6
2024August-0.58
2024September-0.56
2024October-0.56
2024November-0.52
2024December-0.49
2025January-0.52
2025February-0.52
2025March-0.54
2025April-0.62
2025May-0.64
2025June-0.66
2025July-0.72
2025August-0.72

Consumers equally negative, producers less negative

Consumers remained equally negative in August as in July. Producers were less negative than they were in July. Consumer and producer confidence were below the long-term average for the past twenty years.

Consumer and producer confidence (seasonally adjusted)
YearMonthConsumer confidence (average of the component questions)Producer confidence (average of the component questions)
2021September-59.1
2021October-1010.4
2021November-1910.1
2021December-257.3
2022January-286.5
2022February-305.8
2022March-395.7
2022April-487.2
2022May-475.8
2022June-504.2
2022July -515.3
2022August-542.4
2022September-591.2
2022October-590.9
2022November-571.1
2022December-521
2023January-491.1
2023February-440.9
2023March-390.9
2023April-37-0.3
2023May-38-1.7
2023June-39-2.7
2023July-39-2.7
2023August-40-4.6
2023September-39-3.9
2023October-38-3.7
2023November-33-2.6
2023December-29-5.7
2014January-28-4.4
2014February-27-4.2
2014March-22-4.8
2014April-21-3.6
2014May-22-2.8
2014June-23-2.4
2014July-24-2.7
2014August-24-1.9
2014September-21-1.7
2014October-22-3.2
2014November-25-1.8
2014December-26-1.6
2025January-28-1.6
2025February-32-1.2
2025March-34-1.5
2025April-37-3.3
2025May-37-3.9
2025June-36-5
2025July-32-4.9
2025August-32-2.2

Household consumption, exports and investment up

Household spending was 0.7 percent higher in June 2025 than it was in June 2024, adjusted for price changes and the shopping-day pattern. Households spent more on goods, but less on services.

In June 2025, the total volume of goods exported (adjusted for the number of working days) was up by 1.8 percent year on year. Growth is slightly higher than a month earlier. Export volumes were higher for machinery, transport equipment and food, beverages and tobacco.

In June 2025, the volume of investment in tangible fixed assets was up by 8.3 percent year on year. This was mainly due to more investment in ships, aircraft, machinery (including defence equipment) and infrastructure.

Manufacturing output 0.2 percent lower in June

In June 2025, the calendar-adjusted output of the Dutch manufacturing sector was 0.2 percent lower than it was in June 2024. After adjustment for seasonal and calendar effects, manufacturing output fell by 0.1 percent in June relative to May.

Fewer bankruptcies in July

Adjusted for the number of court session days, there were 18 fewer bankruptcies in July than in June. That was a decrease of 4 percent.

House prices up by almost 9 percent in July

In July, the average price of an owner-occupied dwelling (excluding newbuild homes) was 8.6 percent higher year on year and 0.7 percent higher relative to June.

Fewer hours worked, fewer vacancies, unemployment remained almost unchanged

Unemployment stood at 388 thousand in July 2025. This is 3.8 percent of the labour force, meaning that the unemployment rate was the same as in the previous three months. The number of unemployed people also remained almost unchanged over the past three months, on average.

In Q2 2025, employees and self-employed persons worked over 3.7 billion hours in total. Adjusted for seasonal effects, that was 0.3 percent less than the previous quarter.

The number of vacancies decreased by around 7 thousand to nearly 389 thousand in the second quarter of 2025.

In Q1 2025, the turnover of temporary employment and job placement agencies was 1.5 percent lower than in Q1 2024.

Economic growth of 0.1 percent in Q2 2025

According to the first estimate by Statistics Netherlands (CBS), gross domestic product (GDP) rose by 0.1 percent in Q2 2025, relative to the previous quarter. GDP growth in Q2 2025 was mainly attributable to investments and public consumption.

GDP (volume), seasonally adjusted
YearQuarterIndex (2021=100)
2021Quarter 3101.8
2021Quarter 4101.9
2022Quarter 1103.2
2022Quarter 2105.6
2022Quarter 3105.8
2022Quarter 4105.5
2023Quarter 1104.9
2023Quarter 2104.5
2023Quarter 3104
2023Quarter 4104.2
2024Quarter 1104.2
2024Quarter 2105.3
2024Quarter 3106
2024Quarter 4106.5
2025Quarter 1106.8
2025Quarter 2106.9