Concerns over international trade among manufacturing exporters

© CBS
Among industrial exporters in the Netherlands, 95 percent are concerned regarding international trade policy in the next 12 months. These companies are chiefly worried about the effects of import tariffs and non-tariff measures on their exports, such as customs enforcement or product specification requirements. Changes in trade policy will mainly affect how much is exported, according to the business survey conducted by Statistics Netherlands (CBS) among manufacturing companies with at least five workers in May 2025.

International trade has seen growing uncertainty in recent months due to new tariffs imposed by the United States and the potential for countermeasures by the EU and China. Nearly 80 percent of manufacturing companies in the Netherlands are exporters. Of those manufacturing exporters, 95 percent have concerns about international trade policy over the coming 12 months, an increase from 41 percent in March of 2023. Nearly every company in the wood and construction materials industry and the paper and printing industry reported concerns. Even in the sector where concern is the lowest, the manufacture of transport equipment, 82 percent of companies indicated that they have concerns.

Import tariffs are the greatest source of concern

Around 77 percent of exporting manufacturers identify import tariffs as one of the most concerning aspects of international trade policy over the next 12 months. In March 2023 less than 10 percent did so. Over 26 percent of companies believe that non-tariff measures will negatively affect their exports, and 15 percent have concerns about sustainability guidelines and requirements.

Companies in the electrotechnical and machinery sector are the most likely to have one or more concerns regarding trade policy over the next 12 months, with both import tariffs (85 percent) and non-tariff measures (30 percent) a concern. Companies in the refineries and the chemical industry are the most likely to indicate that they have concerns about trade sanctions.

Changes in trade policy often affect exports

Only 8 percent of exporting manufacturers believe that changes in trade policy will not affect their exports, compared to 47 percent in March 2023. Of those that do expect to see an impact, 40 percent are mainly concerned about a change in export volume. That is nearly twice as many as in March 2023 (23 percent). Additionally, 9 percent of companies indicated that policy changes would mainly affect their pricing.

The electrotechnical and machinery industry is most likely to feel the impact of a change in trade policy. In this sector, 60 percent of exporters indicate that the volume of exports will change. Companies in the transport equipment sector are the most likely to change export markets as a result of changes in international trade policy. However, out of all the sectors, they are also the least likely to say that the volume of their exports will change.